Household Leverage In Xiamen at 96pc, Zhejiang Household Leverage Spikes in 2018

财新: 研报:部分地区居民杠杆率高企 浙江76%厦门96%
Although the national household debt ratio of 52.6% is still in the safe range, the risk caused by regional differentiation is the focus of the market. The report compiled data on the debt ratio of the provinces at the end of 2018. It was found that there were 13 provinces with more than 50%, of which eight provinces exceeded the national average, namely Zhejiang (76%), Shanghai (68%), Guangdong (64%), Gansu (61%), Fujian (60%), Beijing (59%), Chongqing (57%), and Jiangxi (55%). Among the cities with data available, Xiamen residents have the highest leverage ratio of 96%, Ningbo (57%) and Shijiazhuang (54%) are also at a high level.

...Compared with the two reports, Caixin reporter found that the leverage ratio of Zhejiang residents increased by 10.6 percentage points in 2018, surpassing Shanghai to become the highest province, with Chongqing rising by 6.4 percentage points, Jiangxi by 5.8 percentage points, and Guangdong by 4.9 percentage points. Shanghai and Fujian. Ningxia rose by about 2.5 percentage points, while Beijing rose by 0.2 percentage points.

...Guotai Junan report believes that real estate-driven consumer consumer debt is the main reason for the rapid increase in household leverage. The real estate market is booming in 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2017. The debt ratio of residents has risen rapidly. Whether it is resident loans/national income or the loan-to-deposit ratio of the resident sector, it has continued to rise in recent years, and there is a certain risk in the residential sector after the rapid increase in leverage over the past few years.

  “The fast-growing resident debt must be moderated in order to effectively mitigate the risks in subsequent growth.” The report said that the excessive leverage of residents in some areas warned of the necessity and urgency of the transformation of the old and new kinetic energy of the economy, and also restricted the currency. Policy and real estate policy.
The Zhejiang number may be more accurate count of existing debt, not an explosion in leverage, but that would only make it a marginally better figure.

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