2019-09-11

Maotai Prices Are Tumbling

China is cracking down on Maotai dealers and the price is tumbling, but is that due to the regulations or because deflation is rearing its head?

iFeng: 中秋前夕飞天茅台降温:批价骤降至2400元附近 黄牛慌了
First, the scope of the clue collection includes:

(1) In the sales of Moutai wine market, illegal and illegal behaviors such as hoarding, raising prices, increasing sales, transferring sales, and illegal tying;

(2) The illegal act of producing and selling infringing and counterfeiting Moutai;

(3) maliciously selling the sales units and individuals who speculate on the sale of Moutai to seek improper benefits;

(4) Producing and publishing false advertising advertisements of Moutai, deceiving and misleading consumers and other illegal acts that damage the legitimate rights and interests of consumers;

(5) Other violations of laws and regulations that disrupt the order of the Moutai market.

Second, the report method: 24-hour complaint report phone number: 12365. All sectors of the society and the broad masses of the people are welcome to report.

Some industry observers pointed out that the first and fourth measures in the document were more effective, which greatly promoted the regulation of the Moutai market, and effectively shocked the speculators in the market and successfully curbed the flying Maotai in the Mid-Autumn Festival in line with the interests of consumers.
Did the crackdown lower prices or are larger economic forces in play?
“Affected by major festivals, the prices of pork and other essential products are also falling. The price of the flying Maotai in the Beijing market has indeed been lowered, currently around 2,400 yuan.” In the survey, there were long-term follow-up observations of Guizhou Maotai’s securities to the wine Industry reporter said.

It is understood that regarding the price of a batch of Maotai liquor, there has always been a distinction between “bulk goods” and “piece goods” in the market, and the prices obtained by the above-mentioned liquor companies are all “prices” at the dealer level.

According to industry sources, Feitian Maotai's bulk purchase price in the early stage of the Beijing market was 2350-2400 yuan, and today's purchase price is 2100 yuan, down 250-300 yuan / bottle, there is indeed a large decline.
Some people aren't buying the crackdown explanation:
Another industry analysts believe that the core reason for the large drop in the flight of Maotai is mainly due to the release of various channels before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the supply has increased. Some people in the market believe that the price of Moutai may fall after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Therefore, the current market demand is affected. The multiple factors such as price cut expectations and weak investment attributes have a large decline.

In this case, there is a group that appears to be panicked. This group is the "yellow cattle" party that has long been speculating on the flying Maotai. "The oxen are really panicked, because a large number of goods are coming to the market, and prices will fluctuate." Someone analyzed.

There are many rumors on the Internet today. Some say that Beijing Huangniu has lowered its price in Maotai. It is also said that Maotai has increased its supply and price control has been well stabilized before the Mid-Autumn Festival. Kaisheng Liquor believes that at present, the entire high-end liquor has indeed risen faster in the early stage, but it does not mean that the demand for high-end liquor will be met. This is only the increase in volatility after the stock price and the terminal price increase too much.

Why is the price of Moutai so important? Moutai is the price indicator for the whole high-end wine. The price of Moutai is falling, which will inevitably affect Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao. Because the difference between the ex-factory price and the terminal price of Maotai is the largest, the price reduction does not affect the profitability and short supply of Maotai. Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao enjoyed the spillover effect of Maotai's short supply.

Some brokers believe that the main reason for the short-term decline in Moutai prices is: 1. Manufacturers require 18% of the July and August quotas to be shipped in accordance with 1499; 2. The goods began to be delivered to September in the second half of last week, so the short-term approval price fluctuated slightly. However, it remains firm and the callback is limited. In the previous period, the 2600-2700 was shipped at a lower price, and there was no market price. The price of 2400-2580 was relatively more realistic. The overall regional feedback on high-end liquor sales in the Mid-Autumn Festival was good, with steady growth year-on-year, in line with current market expectations.

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