2019-12-24

Here Comes Another RRR Cut

iFeng: 新一轮降准在路上!什么时候降?房价会涨吗?
Heavy! A new round of RRR cuts may be coming!

This is not a market forecast, but an official statement.

On December 23, while attending the China-Japan-Korea Leadership Meeting, Premier Li Keqiang stated during a visit to Chengdu, Sichuan that the state will further study various measures such as RRR cuts and targeted RRR cuts , refinancing and rediscounting to reduce real interest rates And comprehensive financing costs, it has significantly eased the financing difficulties and expensive financing problems for small and micro enterprises.

...Lian Ping predicts that in 2020, the central bank will also cut open market operations and medium-term borrowing convenience operation rates by 10 to 15 basis points , and continue to cut the benchmark by 100 basis points.

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing predicts that in 2020, there may be another two to three general reductions of 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points . Among them, before the Spring Festival may be reduced by 0.5 percentage points.

China Everbright's solid-income team analysts believe that the probability of a reduction in early January 2020 is high for two reasons. First, the Spring Festival of this year is January 25, and the scale of cash injection in the banking system before the Spring Festival will be larger than usual. Second, a large number of local government bonds will be issued at the beginning of January next year, which will also require medium and long-term liquidity injection.

As for time, some experts predict that the RRR cut may soon land. This Friday may be an important time window to observe whether the standards have been lowered .

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