Categories

2020-01-29

Copper Approaches Critical Test

From August 2019: Copper, Gold and The End of Growth. I looked at the copper/gold ratio:
The pessimistic scenario is the 2008 low doesn't hold and the early 1980s low looms. That move requires going beyond 700. That's huge for global markets and could entail major dislocations such as a major China crisis, but then comes the much larger question.

Is this a massive 40-year basing pattern for the gold/copper ratio? Gold soared relative to copper during the 1970s. A measured move off this basing pattern would carry gold to more than 1200 times the price of copper. That could mean $2 copper would trade alongside $2,400 gold or $10 alongside $12,000. The more probable move, in my opinion, is the former. A doubling of gold and stagnant or even falling commodity prices as growth evaporates.
Ratios tend to be restrained over time, but they also have periods of disequilibrium, phase changes that can establish a new ratio. If gold is remonetized as part of a global financial/economic reset, a higher ratio is possible.

As for copper, it is approaching an important test in the $2.50 area. It's both at a major support line and a Fibonnaci retracement level.

No comments:

Post a Comment