Coronavirus Spreading as Fast in China as Outside

If you're closely following the 2019-nCoV outbreak, you probably have been to this Johns Hopkins side tracking the case growth. At the bottom is a chart, blow up below. It has only one axis, making it look like Chinese case growth dwarfs cases outside of China. I plugged the numbers on that site into Excel and made a two-axis chart.

My math says cases are growing at a 38 percent clip in both sets. These percentages are based on the 11-day sample set since January 20. What's striking about this is that if you believe China is underreporting, it appears they tracking the outside of China growth rate. Or it indicates that China is not hiding cases and that governments outside of China are no more successful at stopping the spread of the disease.

Assuming the virus grows at the current rate, the case load on Feb 1 (tomorrow) will be around 13,800 in China and 163 outside of China. [UPDATE: I posted these numbers at 3:09 PM. China has updated the numbers this morning Beijing time to 11.374. The number 24 hours later should be 15,680. Update is to avoid confusion because the numbers are updated several times a day.]

By the end of February, if growth was unabated by treatment, quarantine and other measures, the case count projects to clear 100 million in China and 1.6 million outside of China. To reiterate, that's based off a very small 11-day set of data. I assume the growth rate will slow. Given the incubation period as long as 2 weeks, Chinese quarantine efforts may not show up in the numbers for another week or so.