The people are screaming out of the windows: Go #Wuhan! Go China! #coronavirus #WuhanLockDown #武汉加油 pic.twitter.com/CKFP4KgYKT— u/1766 (@lziics) January 27, 2020
Wuhan residents find new forms of entertainment
Wuhan residents finding new forms of home entertainment.#WuhanLockDown #Wuhan #coronavirus #武汉加油 pic.twitter.com/dXBSMjNJyT— u/1766 (@lziics) January 27, 2020
An article at 爱股票 explains the situation on the ground and what may be the real risk of the disease, namely overloading the medical system: 如何破解武汉死局
From the performance point of view, Wuhan can be summed up in three aspects. Hospitals and medical staff are overloaded, front-line protective materials are in short supply, and patients' screening or treatment needs cannot be met.Some are using the term for bank runs to describe the stress being placed on the medical system. There is rumor-mongering about the diseases mortality rate, but the truth is most people won't even need to go to a hospital. However, if 1000 people catch the flu, only one will die in an average year. Thus far, conservative estimates suggest 20 people will die for every 1000 who catch coronavirus. Now imagine it is as contagious, or even more contagious, than the flu. The numbers quickly overwhelm all medical systems in all countries.
...The core problem of these three aspects lies in the fact that a large number of patients in tens of millions of cities are flocking to limited medical institutions with fever clinics and qualified for pneumonia screening.
There are potential patients and suspect populations, as well as people with common flu and common cold, or patients with fever and other symptoms for other reasons, and there may be normal people who are completely asymptomatic but are more concerned about their physical condition.
Whether it is the site, equipment, personnel, or supplies, medical institutions cannot afford this swarming pressure.
According to the statistics at the end of 2018, Wuhan has a permanent population of 11.08 million and a registered population of 8.83 million. Just when most foreigners had left before closing the city, it was 9 million, multiplied by the 2% influenza rate, which was 180,000.A a result, patients wait for hours just to see a doctor:
180,000 people want to flood into the hospital as soon as possible to confirm whether they are ordinary flu or coronavirus pneumonia. This does not count as a common cold and other patients, and is not a disturbed healthy person. In all, at least hundreds of thousands of people.
In all fairness, Wuhan's medical configuration is pretty good. Although not as good as Beijing and Shanghai, it is already first-class in second-tier cities. There are 47 top three hospitals in the city, Tongji and Xiehe are the top level in the country. But this can't carry the crowded run of hundreds of thousands of people.
Because of the run, patients must line up for three or four or even six or seven hours in the cold and wet early morning to get a chance for an examination.
Because of the run, in the inaccessible hospital lobby, the energy of medical staff is on the limit, and their emotions are on the verge of collapse. There was even a shameless scene of patients tearing their doctor's protective clothing and spitting at the doctor.If coronavirus is similar to Spanish flu, medical systems around the world will turn away non-critical patients. What's happening in Wuhan will be a near universal phenomena.
At the same time, citizens who seek no cure are willing to swear, and try their best to leave the city and flee to other cities.
The full essay, Google translated, is below. Chinese link here: 如何破解武汉死局
How to crack the deadlock in Wuhan
Time: 2020-01-27 09:22 Source: In-depth good reading: 1045271 times
source:Ten True Comments
This unusual Spring Festival, we are receiving a lot of news from or about Wuhan every day. As the storm center of this pneumonia epidemic, the success or failure of Wuhan to fight the epidemic is related to the overall situation.
What is the situation in Wuhan now?
On the one hand, every day we can get good news full of positive energy. Medical teams and the People's Liberation Army from all over the country aided each other, a large number of supplies arrived, patients were discharged from the hospital, and there was "Thunder Mountain" in addition to "Vulcan Mountain". The mood of citizens was generally stable, and Wuhan people remained optimistic.
But on the one hand, our eyes and soul are still being beaten. There was a shortage of frontline supplies, the hospital was forced to split up for help, the medical staff was overworked, and the water was leaking out of the outpatient hall. The patient was still unable to receive treatment in many hospitals.
There seems to be a dead end in it, and it may even lead to a "death."
This is a more worrying problem than the number of patients who are still rising.
***
From the performance point of view, Wuhan can be summed up in three aspects. Hospitals and medical staff are overloaded, front-line protective materials are in short supply, and patients' screening or treatment needs cannot be met.
All these information can be obtained from different channels. Even if the self-media information that needs to be screened and identified is not considered, the official media information alone is enough to make people feel the seriousness of the problem.
The core problem of these three aspects lies in the fact that a large number of patients in tens of millions of cities are flocking to limited medical institutions with fever clinics and qualified for pneumonia screening.
There are potential patients and suspect populations, as well as people with common flu and common cold, or patients with fever and other symptoms for other reasons, and there may be normal people who are completely asymptomatic but are more concerned about their physical condition.
Whether it is the site, equipment, personnel, or supplies, medical institutions cannot afford this swarming pressure.
This is the terrible medical run.
Run is originally a financial concept, saying that after the bank receives the depositor's deposit, it is impossible to reserve all the deposits there to prepare for the withdrawal of the depositor, only a part of the reserve will be left, and the rest will be lent or allocated through other markets. Only then can profits be paid to savers' interest, and profits are generated.
But if depositors are worried about the bank failure, and the bankers go to the counter at the same time to ask for a deposit, the bank's reserves are not enough. If they can't calm down the depositor's mood and seek external resources, the bank will be finished.
Aside from the topic, a few days ago, there was a saying that the governing government was originally a financial tycoon and a banker, so all the measures are like a copy of the bank's fool supervision.
This is of course ridicule. But the same run scene really tied the hospital and the bank together.
For the hospital, the run is the medical demand that should have been evenly released, and the brain burst out of concentration, exceeding the tolerance of the hospital's site equipment and materials personnel.
The hospital may not fail, but it will burst and doctors will collapse.
How serious is this run? Let's make a simple calculation.
Studies show that in Hubei Province, where Wuhan is located, the incidence of influenza in 2015 was 15.82%.
In recent years, due to various factors such as the environment, the incidence rate is actually rising, let alone it has not changed. At the same time, it does not consider the frequent occurrence of winter, let's make an average of the four seasons. According to this calculation, the influenza rate of the people in Wuhan this winter is about 4%. During this period, it is doubled, 2%.
According to the statistics at the end of 2018, Wuhan has a permanent population of 11.08 million and a registered population of 8.83 million. Just when most foreigners had left before closing the city, it was 9 million, multiplied by the 2% influenza rate, which was 180,000.
180,000 people want to flood into the hospital as soon as possible to confirm whether they are ordinary flu or coronavirus pneumonia. This does not count as a common cold and other patients, and is not a disturbed healthy person. In all, at least hundreds of thousands of people.
In all fairness, Wuhan's medical configuration is pretty good. Although not as good as Beijing and Shanghai, it is already first-class in second-tier cities. There are 47 top three hospitals in the city, Tongji and Xiehe are the top level in the country. But this can't carry the crowded run of hundreds of thousands of people.
In addition, in addition to outpatients, many confirmed patients and highly suspected patients need to be hospitalized. Wuhan actually organized and adjusted beds for the epidemic situation. At first 800 beds were added, but later it was increased to 2,000 and 3,000.
In the face of hundreds of thousands of people coming in like a tide, this is just a small flat boat.
***
Nowadays, most of the disturbing news is a chain reaction of runs.
Because of the run, patients must line up for three or four or even six or seven hours in the cold and wet early morning to get a chance for an examination.
The subjects who really needed medical treatment were isolated and the patients who had already experienced symptoms were transferred to many hospitals. They were all told that the beds were full and they had to wait for death to go home.
Because of the run, the hospital's masks, protective clothing, and other materials were consumed by thousands of medical treatments in a day, and medical staff were forced to fight with bare hands and walk to the battlefield with flesh and blood.
The follow-up replenishment of materials takes time, and there is no result in asking for help from the superior. The hospital has to break the hidden rules and ask the society directly for help.
Because of the run, in the inaccessible hospital lobby, the energy of medical staff is on the limit, and their emotions are on the verge of collapse. There was even a shameless scene of patients tearing their doctor's protective clothing and spitting at the doctor.
At the same time, citizens who seek no cure are willing to swear, and try their best to leave the city and flee to other cities.
In the face of the desire to survive, the moral credo remains so pale.
Humanity, as always, cannot stand the test.
What's more terrible is that because of run-ins, healthy people, susceptible people, and people carrying the virus have generated a lot of flow, gathering and interaction, disorderly, meaningless, and harmful.
Patients roam in several hospitals, what will this bring?
Isn't this the best breeding ground for the spread of the virus?
The biggest risk here is that the virus will form the second and third rounds of outbreaks in cross-infection. The battle will become long and humans will pay a greater price. The race between the United States and France to withdraw their diaspora is precisely the concern over this risk.
***
Why is there such a medical run?
Since yesterday, many people have paid attention to the crowd panic in the epidemic, which shows that our research and analysis of the problem have deepened. This is a good thing.
But there are also many biased views, which are worth noting. The following paragraph is quite representative.
Don't delve into the source of the data. It is keen to consider panic psychology as an important cause of medical runs.
But if the panic is blamed on the media incitement, or even further, the so-called inferiority and nationality of Wuhan, Hubei, and even Chinese people. This is biased.
This is not the truth and it is not conducive to solving the real problem.
In fact, if you think about it calmly, the research results of modern psychology, anthropology, sociology, and behavioral economics have been repeatedly proven and repeatedly reminded us. Panic is part of our psychological traits. In fact, we also understand that we are all mortals.
Human beings are not perfect creatures. There are many flaws in human psychological characteristics. This is true of individual psychology and even more so of group psychology.
Herd mentality, anxiety under asymmetric information, and group panic. We are born with it. Although there are individual cases, there is never a group. At the same time, the instinct of people's advantage and avoidance of harm will lead to the individual's partial interest in behavioral decision-making. It may not be optimal for the whole, but this is the inevitable result of the game.
This psychological trait and the individual game choices overlap, which will inevitably lead to group panic, trigger runs, and even trample.
For the people in Wuhan within the closed city, the authoritative news from various official media and official channels has been repeatedly reminded, explicitly or implicitly, that they should go to a medical institution for screening. This is a government requirement and a personal need. Everyone's behavior follows this, and it will naturally run.
The spread of the epidemic and the blockade of the cities would have put people in a state of panic. The lack of management and response will ignite this mentality and produce a chain reaction.
Let's imagine a scenario. If you are a Wuhan person with a high fever, do you go to the hospital to make a diagnosis as soon as possible, or do you bet at home, betting it is a common cold?
You are a mortal, you are afraid of death, you have family and children, you are afraid of infecting them, and you will most likely choose to go to the hospital.
As a result, when you arrived at the hospital, you found that the crowds were heavy and the materials were in short supply. Your panic was ignited by everyone's panic. At this time, do you go home and consume it, or do you try your luck at another hospital?
Every hospital is overcrowded, your temperature is getting higher and higher, and your lungs are showing symptoms, but you still ca n’t arrange for admission. Your anxiety and nervousness are approaching the limit. At this time, your neighbor quietly tells you that there is a small road that can bypass the blockade and drive to Shanghai. You will be immediately admitted to the hospital.
Would you like to try it?
The superposition of panic psychology and game choices is the same. Each person, driven by his own psychology and value system, seems to be the most advantageous choice for himself, but the result is a large number of unnecessary personnel movements, cross infection, Resource consumption, risk accumulation, and finally outbreak.
In this regard, the superiors can naturally yell out to the people to understand the overall situation, but will it really be useful?
If shouting a few moral slogans can improve human moral concepts, world peace has long been saints everywhere.
What's more, the Wuhan people inside the siege are the same as you and me outside the siege. We are all mortals with similar moral levels.
Wuhan people are making sacrifices, but this does not mean that they can be required to quickly become sages who transcend human psychological weaknesses.
***
Here comes the question.
Group panic and individual game mentality are important reasons for the death of medical runs, and they exist objectively. what does this mean?
Public policies that mean special moments must fully consider the group panic and individual game psychology that may be caused or faced.
For Wuhan, the epidemic itself will cause panic, and the closure of the city will exacerbate the panic. Even if all the "dazzling people" are arrested, the big and small media will be as eager as the media.
And panic crowds rushed in. What pressures might be imposed on medical institutions before considering the closure of the city and the emergency plan?
Will your disposition worsen the panic and run?
It should be said that Wuhan is not without consideration.
According to a reporter's question on January 23 of the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Committee, the top-level design of the Wuhan prevention and control system is a 7 + 7 mechanism. The 7 major hospitals support 7 designated hospitals (later increased to 9). Hospitals with fever clinics are screened and suspected and confirmed cases are sent to designated hospitals.
It is certainly not enough to face hundreds of thousands of people by themselves. It is necessary to rely on community medical institutions to complete preliminary screening at the community level, dispose of them according to the situation, and refer them step by step. This is the main content of Circular No. 7 on January 24.
Hundreds of community agencies are mobilized, classified and processed in a hierarchical manner, and hundreds of thousands of citizens who have surged are reduced to zero. Together with external human and material support to improve the distribution of supplies, it is the current way to break the deadlock and ease medical runs The point is.
However, so far, the performance of medical runs is still exposed and fermented.
The medical pressure and shortage of supplies caused by everyone's swarms are still very serious. Even if supplies from all over the country are constantly being sent to Wuhan, hospitals in Wuhan are still struggling for help.
This is the hospital where Shigu ’s younger sister works, Wuhan First Hospital, is the front line to fight the epidemic. At present, there is still a shortage of supplies and doctors are still empty-handed.
This may be due to the lack of timely implementation of hierarchical classification, or it may be that the implementation level has not kept up.
The general pattern of people's behavior is to see a doctor and run to a large hospital. In panic, this kind of large hospital dependence will only worsen. If the arrangement of hierarchical classification is only an initiative, even if it can fully convey the information about the dangers of congestion in large hospitals to residents, it will not necessarily change how everyone behaves.
The initiative alone is not enough, it must be actively guided and even necessary coercion.
Therefore, the key to cracking the deadlock has become how to implement hierarchical classification and screening diagnosis and treatment.
***
Fortunately, the parties concerned seem to have realized this.
Wuhan's No. 9 Announcement announced that from 00:00 on January 26, traffic control on urban private cars will begin. At the same time, city-wide regional controls are also being refined. Hankou, Hanyang, and Wuchang subregions adopt different policies. The Hankou area, where the situation is most serious, will be more carefully controlled.
These measures, in addition to reducing the flow of people and controlling cross-infection in the general sense, are actually the necessary means to guide and force citizens to conduct decentralized screening and ease medical runs.
When the area is refined to a certain degree and it cannot flow across the area, it is the only option to complete the initial screening at the community primary medical institutions in the area.
This is actually the valuable experience of Dr. Wu Liande, a pioneer of the China National Defense Epidemic, in fighting the rat epidemic in Northeast China for more than 100 years. At that time, he implemented the earliest quarantine in China in the Fujiadian area of Harbin, where the plague was most severe.
The Fujiadian area itself is not vast. But Wu Liande still subdivided the whole area into four areas: blue, white, yellow, and red. Residents in the area will be issued badges in different colors, and they are not allowed to leave the area under special circumstances.
This arrangement is not only for controlling general population movements, but also for district medical treatment. Wu Liande arranged professional doctors, general paramedics, and military police to maintain order in each area. Medical personnel and military police also operate only in the area.
The divisional diagnosis and treatment are well-ordered, and they have made great contributions to the rapid suppression of plague in the case of backward technology and lack of drugs.
In addition, Woollen's experience also includes active screening within the zone. Every day, more than 40 search teams are dispatched from each area, under close protection, to inspect the epidemic from house to house, and immediately isolate patients when they encounter patients or suspected patients, and disinfect the houses.
The Circular No. 7 of January 24 in Wuhan also includes the content of active investigations by region.
It is hoped that this work can be carried out in a strict and orderly manner. After the motor vehicle is banned, if there is only compulsory, no service, some elderly or special people who have difficulty in moving, the situation will be more difficult.
If not handled properly, the old panics will not be resolved, and new ones will follow.
It is hoped that the measures this time will really come to fruition, play a role, crack the dead end, and ease the run.
A real turning point for this battle.
Although hierarchical classification is simple to say, it is not easy to do. It requires the courage and determination of decision-making layers, a deep understanding of human psychological characteristics, the matching of resources and needs, and the need for efficient and effective implementation.
Judging from the recent problems, such as the front-line material supply and distribution chain, the requirements on relevant parties are actually a bit high.
But there is no other way than to get through the road. In fact, the hierarchical classification, screening, and diagnosis and treatment are actually to coordinate and match the resources in order to meet the needs as much as possible when the needs exist objectively.
It is useless to turn a blind eye to the needs and the general human psychology behind them, or to label them "immoral" or "irrational".
At the same time, coordination and matching will not work. No matter how much external support is available, it will also have a limited effect. It is like the eight-sided assistance of the people across the country, which cannot reach the hospital.
You have repaired Vulcan Mountain, Thunder Mountain, and more than 2,000 beds. If it is used accurately for diagnosis and critically ill patients, this is a new force that can't be coordinated. A bunch of cold patients swarm, and it is useless to come to Himalaya .
No matter how much water there is, your nozzles will be blocked, and Tian will still dry.
Of course, the ideal state of stratified classified diagnosis and treatment is that community-level virus screening tasks can be completed to maximize the relief of higher-level hospitals. But objectively speaking, technology has bottlenecks.
At present, diagnosis is based on kits. The production capacity of kits is gradually increasing, and transportation bottlenecks are also being opened up.
However, the threshold of the kit test has not been solved. The test requires secondary protection of biological safety, and the personnel needs third-level protection. Basically, only some of the top three can be completed. Therefore, the current community health institutions can only rely on the comprehensive judgment of symptoms and chest radiographs. Whether it is efficiency or accuracy, they can not meet the requirements of the senior hospital to completely relieve pressure.
Shiju Brother hopes that our technology and industry can form a cross-disciplinary synergy, based on the existing biotechnology of the bottom of the kit, through the shell of the AI module, or other methods, to form a closed, safe and complete function The detection unit, in the form of a vehicle-mounted or assembleable detection house, lowers the application threshold and realizes the sinking of the complete screening function.
But even so, no matter how advanced the technology and products are, they still need efficient organization and management.
The incumbent needs to perform his or her duties, not stupid, not bad, let alone stupid and bad.
This is the case in Wuhan. This is even more the case in small and medium-sized cities in the surrounding and other provinces where the situation is equally severe and the attention and resources they receive are far below.
In addition, propaganda work is also very important. Through positive guidance, you can alleviate some of your anxiety and tension, and open information is also conducive to reducing panic.
But this cannot be replaced. Be prepared for panic, and guide and control the existing panic.
As for rumors and arrests, it is useful and necessary when all kinds of news are flying around. But the goal of all of this is definitely not to get a million horses, or a tune-up.
The information vacuum cannot hide panic, it will only provide a breeding ground for a new wave of rumors, making panic even more disorderly.
In fact, in this battle, Chinese scientists and soldiers in white clothes discovered the appearance of the virus and developed detection products in a short period of time, which was highly recognized by their international counterparts. This was originally a good brand.
The player who hopes to play cards will not disappoint, and will also come up with a good hand.
Well-equipped weapons and brave soldiers, the quartermaster who can be responsible for distributing weapons flooded his brain, causing a complete defeat. This is an eternal injustice.
***
Finally, there is an inappropriate analogy.
It's like there is a boat here, the cabin is flooding, the water is not much, but it is still increasing.
One kind of captain, if no one continues to sail, if someone dares to call the barge into the water, cover his mouth, or simply throw it away.
One kind of captain would yell without any preparation. As a result, everyone scrambled to escape to the stern to rescue the lifeboat, which would not sink, because it suddenly lost its balance and turned over.
In both cases, the brain has water.
The truly wise captain will divide the ship into several areas while truthfully reporting the situation to everyone. Each area will be composed of one person, the old, the weak, the women and children will be given priority, and the group will be evacuated to maintain the balance of the ship. Under the strength of strength, use the space and time won to work hard to repair, and finally plug the loopholes, safe and sound, continue to chop waves.
Don't laugh, there is a captain who makes the situation worse.
In 597 BC, during the Spring and Autumn Period, the Kingdom of Chu of the Kingdom of Jin competed with the Chu, and a decisive battle broke out on the southern bank of the Yellow River.
The retreat required crossing the Yellow River to the north, and the Jin coach with water in his head, Father Lin, gave a Dodge order.
Those who cross the river first have a reward!
As a result, the order of the Jin Dynasty defeated was quite chaotic. Everyone scrambled to seize the ships, and the situation was completely under control. The soldiers who couldn't get on the ship desperately grabbed the side of the ship with their hands, and the ships sank one by one.
It was cruel to draw a knife directly in the boat to cut off the fingers of the comrades-in-arms, but it was considered to have escaped from birth, but the fingers of the boat also piled a small hill.
The mighty Jin army was defeated.
Seeing this chaos on the other side, the Chu army could not understand the order given by the commander of the enemy army.
If they knew it, they would definitely not want the filial deeds of the descendants of Chu to be over two thousand years later.
No comments:
Post a Comment