Coronavirus Case Growth Slows on February 1

From 3pm yesterday to 3PM today, case growth slowed to 21 percent in China and 15 percent in the ROW. This is slower than the geometric mean growth of 38 percent in both sets as of January 31. The ROW would be over 200 and China above 15,000 if case growth kept up at the prior pace. Note: the data may be understated because of a lack of awareness in ROW or because of a shortage of testing kits in China, among other factors.

The current growth rate is still exponential, but if China just kept case growth to 21 percent, it projects to 2.3 million by the end of February. By comparison, the geometric mean growth rate projects to 70 million. If the ROW held at the past 24 hour growth rate, it would work out to around 7,000 cases by the end of February.