2020-03-01

Coronavirus Update: U.S Local Outbreaks Begin, Will Trump Close the Stock Market?

What I have been worried about in the United States has been confirmed. The virus has been spreading for weeks undetected.
That poster thinks there are already 100s of cases that probably means it will approach 1000 or more in two weeks because of the incubation period.

NYPost: Coronavirus may have been spreading in Washington state for weeks: experts
KSBW: Washington state investigating possible coronavirus outbreak at a nursing facility
The two positive tests associated with the nursing facility include a 40-year-old female health care worker who has no known travel outside the U.S. and is in satisfactory condition at a local hospital, officials said. The second one, a woman in her 70s, is hospitalized in serious condition.

"In addition, we're aware of a number of individuals associated with the long-term care facility who are reportedly ill with respiratory symptoms or pneumonia, and we're in the process of investigating this situation as an outbreak," Duchin said. "We're in the beginning stages of our investigation and new details."
There are 50+ people with symptoms.

It's still not a worst case scenario, but this is bad. It definitely reduces the probability of a bullish, Y2K-style recovery on the other side of this. I still think the market may be overly panicked here, but it is hard for me to gauge because I was already prepared few weeks month ago. In terms of information edge, I think we're at the point where there's a definite risk that people go overboard on panic. The time to short was when I did, in January. And I ended up being wrong with some of my timing, a month early with many of my options expiries. I'm sure I'm early with being bullish. Over the next few days it doesn't matter either way, the market will probably behave like a super bouncy ball ball fired out of a cannon into a 20 sq ft room.

Finally, if Trump is really worried about stocks, will he order the markets closed? Fox 5: NYSE could close trading floor in coronavirus contingency

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