2020-03-06

Coronavirus Update, Worst Ever Home Sales in China, Many Cities Have Zero Sales

Home sales in China cratered, as you might expect. Sales didn't drop all the way to zero because transactions from December and January were completed in February, but according to Zhang Hongwei of Tongce Group, backing these out makes for the "worst ever" sales data. This data isn't as negative as it looks on the surface because home sales will be made up later, unlike lost sales of Starbucks coffees and gasoline which are gone forever. The bigger risk for housing is too much easing.
iFeng: 2月楼市成交跌幅创历史纪录,多地零成交
In fact, the real transaction situation in February may be more "miserable" than the data. Zhang Hongwei, chief analyst of Tongce Group, analyzed to reporters that "Some transactions in December 2019 and January this year were completed with online signing in February, and even high-priced items that were traded some months ago still did not have online signing. Therefore, After removing these factors from the 2.4 million square meters of network signing data, the true downturn is more serious than the data, and it can be said to be the worst ever. "
In addition, Ningbo, Chongqing, Xi'an, Nanning, Dalian, Wuhan and other cities have a year-on-year decline in transaction volume of more than 90%.
A separate article discusses how housing policy has eased a little, but won't ease a great deal. iFeng: 多地楼市松绑政策遭连续“叫停” 楼市调控难现大放松
In late February, Zhumadian City, Henan Province issued a series of policies to boost the property market. Among them, the policy stipulates that the down payment ratio of the first home provident fund loan has been reduced from 30% to 20%, and the provident fund loan limit has been increased from 450,000 yuan (RMB, hereinafter the same) to 500,000 yuan. However, one week after the policy was introduced, the local government was interviewed by the Henan Provincial Government, demanding that it adhere to the "housing and housing speculation" positioning and not use real estate as a short-term economic stimulus.
Caixin: Jeers of ‘Fake, It’s All Fake’ Greet Beijing VIP in Virus-Stricken Wuhan. This story went around social media yesterday. Many interpreted it as being aimed at government, but it was aimed at property managers.
“During the outbreak, property management companies haven’t taken disinfecting work seriously. When central leaders come, (local officials) make a special effort” to show them how everyone is working for the benefit of local residents, one resident told Caixin. “But the reality is that food delivery is often inadequate. Look at how quickly they’ve worked now to put on a show.”
More on the relapsed cases of coronavirus. This is not behind the paywall, but it is in Chinese. 财新: 新冠患者“复发”有三种情况?武汉医生建议分类施策. The subheader, machine translated:
Experts call for stratified management of re-infection phenomenon based on the patient's age, underlying disease, and degree of illness to refine the discharge strategy
Also in 财新:探究新冠又一步:深圳研究团队发布病毒完整电镜图. Shenzhen researches photograph the virus with an electron microscope.

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