2020-04-20

Apocalypse Dollar: You're Gonna Need a Bigger Wheelbarrow

When the dollar soars, other assets will be carted around in wheelbarrows. That's sort of a joke. Today was the oil edition with May crude plunging as low as negative $40 in settlement as storage fills up.

All of the charts below are either basing patterns waiting to breakout or have broken out. What's amazing to me is how not only the USD charts all look like very bullish setups, but many crosses also look like excellent trades or ready for major moves such as AUDJPY and EURJPY. Harmonic convergence!

First up is the trade weighted USD, broad. The discontinued index is on top. They stopped that series at the end of 2019, right before it would break out of 20-year basing pattern. The new series shows the breakout. Note they are different series so they don't line up exactly.
If you're looking at the majors and DXY, the most important currency is the euro. This is still a massive topping pattern or basing if flipping it.
See that breakdown and reversal in USDEUR? That looks similar to what happened in USDMXN.
USDBRL and USDINR have already resumed their breakouts.
Probably the cross of lowest confidence: USDJPY. Monster 20-year inverse H&S or a 6-year right triangle waiting to break lower. I lean towards bullish on USDJPY given my overall outlook, but need the right triangle to be broken.
Some other crosses of note
Bonus chart

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