Election Bettings 2020

In prior posts related to the 2020 U.S. election, I mentioned that I zero'd in on Minnesota as the key. I'm betting that Trump will win Minnesota as my 2020 Presidential bet because the odds are much better for that outcome than the head-to-head with Biden. Trump could win without Minnesota as he did in 2016, but he came close last time. My thesis is simple: if Trump wins, it will be in part a referendum on the riots. Minneapolis was an epicenter of the summer riots because that was where George Floyd died in police custody. If Trump is going to win, the polls are wrong and if that's the case, then my hunch is Minnesota goes his way.

The other bet I'm making is the GOP picks up a Senate seat. The odds are so low that I stand to make about 20x return if the GOP somehow picks up a seat. It is a decidedly high risk/high return bet. Most experts have the GOP losing seats. Polling says the GOP will lose seats. I'm here for the long odds though, as I was in 2016 with Trump. If the polls are wrong and Trump wins, there's a good chance the GOP runs the table on the toss-ups. Up until today, RealClearPolitics had 7 tossup races and 46 safe/lean and no election GOP seats, for a total of 53 or no gain. Today however, RCP shifted a lean Dem into the toss-up column.

It is still a long-shot bet with the latest poll at +7.2 percent for the Democrat, but I'm feeling confident that my strategy was the right one for this election season and my goal of maximizing potential reward to risk.

I don't know how the election will turn out. I'm skeptical about the polls being wrong again. Trump barely won in 2016 despite his big electoral college win. Demographics are moving in favor of Democrats. A win this year would be a bigger shock than 2016 because you have to think the establishment could at least improve their polling, right? If they can't even do that...how can they be trusted to do anything?

Update:The odds have shifted, now only 10:1 bid for Republicans gaining in the Senate and a 7:1 ask. A GOP sweep of Congress is up to 7:1 odds, from 16:1 when I bought.

Update 2:Senate contracts spiked to 58 cents on my market, and I bought at 4 cents. I sold enough to make back my capital outlay. Betting for free now.