2020-10-23

New Poll Has Minnesota Senate Race a Dead Heat

KSTP: KSTP/SurveyUSA: Smith, Lewis Senate race now a dead heat
Democratic U.S. Senator Tina Smith is now in a dogfight to keep her Senate seat after her once double-digt lead dwindled to a one-point lead in our latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. Smith leads Republican challenger Jason Lewis 43% to 42%, with 12% undecided. Another three percent favor other candidates.

In mid-September Smith had a 47% to 36% lead over Lewis. Earlier in October she still maintained a seven-point lead, 44% to 37%

The poll looked oversampled Republican at 34 percent to 32 percent Democrat, if anything it might be overstating the Republican advantage. Still, Smith's lead has collapsed. By extension, I assume President Trump is faring better than polls show. If Trump wins the election it means the polls are wrong again. Given the margin of error in Minnesota and how close he came in 2016, I expect Minnesota will flip his way. For Biden, flipping a state such as Pennsylvania or Florida will signal the polls are right on as in 2018.

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