China M2 Falls in October, TSF Expected to Slow, US Borrowing Back to Trend

iFeng: 不到上月一半！10月新增人民币贷款明显回落，传递货币政策什么信号？

Zhou Guannan, chief analyst of fixed income at Huachuang Securities, believes that government bond financing is still the main factor supporting the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in October.

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities, predicts that in terms of social finance, the overall issuance of government bonds in October will increase year-on-year, and the issuance of local special bonds has basically been completed (out of the annual quota of 3.75 trillion yuan, only 200 billion yuan of small and medium-sized bank capital remains Gold special bonds have not yet been issued, and the pre-allocation quota has been notified to local governments.) The net issuance of superimposed government bonds. The net financing of government bonds under the Wind caliber is more than 620 billion yuan, which is significantly higher than the 187.1 billion yuan in the same period last year; in terms of credit bonds, the performance in October It is also relatively stable, with a net issuance scale of around 100 billion yuan. "In the future, the growth rate of social financing is expected to reach a relatively high point in October, and it is expected to drop slightly by the end of the year."

The story is the same in the USA, where credit has returned to trend growth.