2021-04-16

China Credit Growth Resumes Long-Term Slowdown

There's no attempt at a reset in China. They are right back to the slowing trend. M2 slowed to 9.4 percent growth yoy. It fell below this level in late 2017 and stayed there until the pandemic. March is a relative strong month for credit and April saw M2 decline in the 2018 and 2019. A return to trend would pull M2 could back below 9 percent.
As I prediced last month, TSF sank a full percentage point in March, to 12.3 percent growth yoy. TSF is still above the stall speed of around 10 percent.

No comments:

Post a Comment