The other scenario is the market is already in a bottoming process. Assets like ARKK and BTC that should be driving the market lower aren't. Instead of this being the "next phase" of the bear, it's actually a complex bottom for a sizable rally. It seems to me that most professionals have turned bearish. Instead of retail and slow institutions (pensions funds, college endowments) capitulating, there is one more rally. Bulls are sucked back into assets such as BTC. People who are thinking of selling here, forget about it this summer. Then comes new lows in the traditional season for spectacular bear moves: September and October.
My plan for the next couple of trading days:
I have energy puts and even some doom puts in energy in case the market does crash. That'll offset any losses I have on outstanding bullish positions. I accumulated more biotech calls today. I also have cash, and plan to buy if the market starts going into a V-shaped low. If instead the market rallies, I'll probably sell my energy shorts quickly because I suspect it'll bounce with the first move up, but I will be immediately watching for re-entry points.
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