IICS Calls Recession Back to January 2022

ZH: It's Official: Nomura Is First Bank To Call For 2022 Recession

Nomura became only the second bank to join DB in calling for a recession as its base case, and also became the first bank expecting this outcome to hit some time in the second half (unlike DB's generously delayed forecast of a "late 2023" recession).

Q1 GDP was negative and Atlanta Fed is at 0.0 percent for Q2. I'm calling a technical recession right now and it started in January 2022. Technical recession means two quarters of contraction of any size. I also think the contraction is larger than reported and that the BEA will revise the deflator higher next year. I also expect Nomura could be right that the worst of it will be coming later this year, in which case there may be 4 consecutive quarters or more of contraction.