2023-04-13

SPY-EFA Ratio Threatening Breakdown

If this rolls over and drops, it's a major signal for the markets. U.S. stock market leadership is over and it is either the start or end of the bear market.
What do you think? A new bull market is starting along with a new U.S. dollar bear market, led by non-US developed markets or a major top in the U.S. markets is about to pick up downside steam? SPY has way more tech exposure than developed markets, so if bearish, it hints at a resumption of Nasdaq leading the markets lower. If you notice the stochastics below as well, SPX-EAFE ratio bottomed in February 2000 and peaked again in October 2000. This time it peaked in December 2021 and bottomed in February 2023.

Here is EFA versus EEM for comparison. Looks like a massive base in favor of developed markets.

No comments:

Post a Comment