Bigoted Menace On Pace to Top the Polls

The United Kingdom may deliver a huge victory to a bigoted menace on Thursday, at least according to the media.

Despite flak, polls show UKIP on track to top Europe vote
The UKIP party will likely top European elections on Thursday or come a close second, according to opinion polls that suggest a barrage of criticism accusing it of racial slurs and bigotry has failed to put off voters.

All three of Britain's three main political parties have strongly criticised the UK Independence Party (UKIP), which wants Britain to leave the European Union and to impose much tougher immigration controls, prompting the party to take out an advert in a national newspaper to assert that it is not racist.

Large swaths of the press, including tabloid The Sun newspaper, owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., have joined the fray. This week, The Sun asked readers whether they thought UKIP leader Nigel Farage was a "bigoted menace".

......Writing for the right-leaning Daily Express newspaper, Farage said the barrage of criticism had backfired.

"I think, ironically, it has made those who support us even more likely to stick with us in subsequent elections," he wrote.
He is exactly right. Social mood is swinging in his favor and the other three parties have delivered a nearly pitch perfect peak social mood strategy. UKIP is benefiting not only from negative social mood in its favor, but the strategic errors of his opponents.

In Scotland, negative social mood has the electorate splintering: SNP and Ukip square up in battle for Scotland's sixth European seat
The First Minister called on "people of all political shades who want to stop UKIP" to vote for Ms Ahmed-Sheikh in the battle for Scotland's sixth European seat.

“It is a contest between the new Scotland of hope and ambition that welcomes those who wish to come here and contribute to our society – and the appalling politics of intolerance being peddled by Nigel Farage’s Ukip," Mr Salmond said.

"The SNP and Ukip offer a false choice in this election," said Danny Alexander, a Liberal Democrat MP and Chief Secretary to the Treasury who was campaigning in the Highlands.

"Both believe in narrow-minded nationalism and both are bringing our relationship with Europe to the brink. A vote for Ukip or the SNP on Thursday will give succour to those who want to isolate Scotland and put the economic recovery at risk."

Ed Balls, Labour's shadow chancellor on the campaign trail in Paisley, Renfrewshire, linked the SNP's "confusion over Europe" with Ukip's hopes of "walking away from the biggest single market".

Tight race as parties make final Euro and local pitch
Labour is neck-and-neck with UKIP in the battle to get the biggest vote share in the Euro election, according to the latest Sun/YouGov poll.

Both parties are on 27%, with the Conservatives in third place on 23%.

The Lib Dems, on 10%, edged back ahead of the Greens, on 8%, according to the survey of 1,874 adults on 19 and 20 May.
I don't know enough detail about UK elections, but in the United States the general rule is that if the incumbent is below 50% and/or tied with the challenger, they are in trouble because late voters break to the challenger.

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