2014-06-09

Beijing Existing Home Sales Hit Warning Line

According to the article below, the warning line in 2011 was 7000 homes sold in one month and already 2 of 5 months in 2014 have fallen below that level. Discussion of layoffs and closing of offices by real estate agencies has begun.

北京二手房危局来临 触及2011年警戒线
Turnover hit cordon the first five months of 2011, trading volume is less than two months of 7000 have been set, even lower than the average level in the second half of 2011. And usually, the monthly trading volume is less than 8,000 sets once, it is considered more sluggish market performance.

This year's Beijing second-hand housing market, the first half was coming to an end, no match for the decline, trading volume has been lower than the lowest point in 2011. If the volume continued to shrink, in 2011 the market will be a major reshuffle or a repeat.

Since many factors affect the second-hand housing transactions has not changed this year, Beijing second-hand housing cold period has lasted nearly six months, the customer's wait and see mood has not improved. Although now routinely have to trading season, but volume was light, the price decline is a foregone conclusion: Since April, the Beijing second-hand housing turnover consecutive week for eight weeks in 2000 sets the following levels, weak states are not currently traded any better.

"The price decline, the rapid decline in volume, the entire Beijing second-hand housing market is like frozen, as turnover is very cold." Century City area of ​​Haidian agency a broker for Chinese Real Estate News reporters bluntly: "the overall market is not good, Now we practitioners are unable to figure out how this year will be a market. "
Cordon hit 2011

A lot of work over the years in the second-hand housing intermediary broker filed in 2011 in Beijing property market is also a lingering fear. Beijing introduced that year by the purchase of the policy, the secondary housing market remains in the doldrums in the second half. Intermediary industry has also undergone a major reshuffle.

Then second-hand housing transaction data from the chain of family property offers reporter saw, in the most difficult market in the second half of 2011, when the average monthly volume of seven or eight thousand sets. This year in May, 6929 Beijing second-hand housing transaction sets, still below the 2011 market cold period.

In fact, in the first five months of this year, there have been less than 7,000 units daily for two months, or even below average second half of 2011. And usually, the monthly trading volume is less than 8,000 sets once, it has been considered more sluggish market performance.

Regulation since the beginning of the first half of 2011 to the second half, came after another agency closed shop and layoffs. According to media reports at the time, to September 2011 the number of Beijing city intermediary stores as 5310, which compared to the purchase of Beijing in February 6029 when the introduction of the policy, reducing the number 700.

"This month turnover was lower than in 2011, 40,000 in 2011 the industry was gone." Instituted in 2011 in Beijing second-hand housing market in Beijing brokerage industry veteran of many years I still remember the small brokers. But he believes the current volume shrinkage is only a few months, can not yet clear whether a conclusion would be harder than 2011.

In little more than it seems, still can not clearly say how the deal would be the second half, because he felt the Chinese real estate market in the short term or the policy market. However, if the volume remains in the doldrums, most will be six months, there will be a lot of companies have been eliminated, closed shop, employees actively or passively leave is inevitable.

But the chain of home real estate market research analyst 李巧岭 believes that Beijing's second-hand housing brokerage industry after 2011 reshuffle, stores, staff size has been reduced to a more reasonable state, the structure of the market share is relatively stable, it will not appear larger closed shop tidal range. In addition, the downstream market through 2011, the industry's short-period fluctuations in the market for a more rational understanding of the current market outlook has not appeared overly pessimistic expectations.

Albert I love my family Group Hu Jinghui, vice president of China Real Estate News accepts reporter said on brokerage companies, closed shop in addition to layoffs such behavior and market circumstances of the outside, but also with their own strategy, size, operating conditions, the market outlook many factors related expectations and judgment.

"Different companies have different practical situations, as a peer, we can not comment too much, but at present, the North, on the broad, deep four first-tier cities gradually freeze the market is basically from increasingly uncertain until after February, for brokers industry, cold three months is not enough to induce massive contraction of the industry. "he said.

Hu Jinghui further said: "The agency recently Shanghai Zhongyuan Blissful and shops have been rumors of layoffs related news, former second-hand housing market is not good, they also had a similar move we think it is their own behavior, not as a whole. Evidence brokerage industry to a major reshuffle of course, if the second-hand housing market downturn in long-term sustainability of this trend, do not rule will lead to industry generates adjustments. then more powerful and more influential business brand will usher in development opportunities. "

Price drop has entered the stage of real

To May, Beijing second-hand housing market, 28,000 yuan / square meters of average, compared to the previous four months 30,000 yuan / square meters of the average price has dropped by about 2,000 yuan / square meter, close to last year's level, you can said drop into real stage.

Reporters learned that the current owners are mostly eager to price many wards and eager to spend money, this will allow a larger price cut. Multiple regions case shows that such owners can achieve the price cut three to four million.

Since the beginning of 2014, affected by a variety of factors from commodity-occupied housing market, tightening credit policies, etc., Beijing appears from the outside and inside of the price trend, just need to purchase groups continued to wait and see, let suburban district declining proportion of second-hand housing turnover.

Since February, the suburban district for three consecutive months, decreased volume. From the beginning of March, in the suburban Changping, Tongzhou and start to decline, followed by a slight decrease prices began to suburban areas.

In this regard, market research analyst Zhang Xu believes chain of family property, owner-occupied housing market and commodities continued to tighten credit, the greatest impact is the first set of rigid requirements. Therefore, watching the strong demand, suburban traded down more apparent.

Currently suburban prices fell gradually narrowed, increasing the city center price cuts. May prices have dropped over the outskirts of downtown, reaching 3.7%.

In fact, often think there is a certain level of prices artificially high city itself. From the point of view of the customer base coupled with smaller demand, the owners Jishou cash price situation may be even more pronounced.

If both sets of the city center at the current total price of 3.5 million yuan terms, a single set of price adjustment on average about 130,000 yuan, an increase of nearly 2 million more than in April. Thus, from the beginning of March this year, the Beijing second-hand housing market has entered a substantive price reduction process.

Liqiao Ling told the China Real Estate News reporter, the more obvious price behavior, is still mainly concentrated in the rush to sell listings, the price cut is more determined by the owner's psychological expectations. Currently, the amount of new housing fell sharply, owners from the city's anti-price phenomenon has emerged, overall prices are expected to state in this game will not be a significant decline.
In Hu Jinghui seems that this year the price level of actual market performance can only be measured. "From the current point of view, a substantial adjustment is unlikely, because of the high correlation of the real estate market and the economy, a substantial intense adjustment of the property market and the government will pay more attention to the impact of macroeconomic livelihood as appears particularly large adjustment, the government also take certain means to intervene to stabilize the market would be expected. "

No comments:

Post a Comment