2014-08-22

Immigration Is The Winning Issue in 2014 and 2016

Earlier this year there were the local and EU elections in the UK: UKIP Scores Big Win in Local Elections; Shockwaves Will Hit Europe and the U.S.
If UKIP continues to rise, they will not only change the debate in the U.K., but in the entire Anglosphere, to say nothing of the damage they will deal the EU if Britain exits. The non-existent immigration restrictionist position in the U.S., support for which could run as high as 70% based on some polls, could emerge as a major electoral issue.

Then came the perfectly timed border crisis: Immigration Issue Set to Explode in America; Prepare for Political Volatilty
America is waiting for its UKIP. The first politician or political party that steps up and raises immigration restriction as an issue is going to see its support surge. This will totally upend the predictions for the 2016 presidential race since it will allow a populist candidate or party, like UKIP, to emerge from the fringes and storm into the mainstream of political debate.

......UKIP was a distant warning shot. The defeat of Eric Cantor was a much closer shot. Few if any politicians have stepped up to advocate an immigration restriction policy. They have nearly all taken the easy road of bashing President Obama for inaction. This leaves an opening for an ambitious politician.
That second link had polling data showing that immigration restriction is widely popular with Americans.

Here's an ambitious guy. Republican Scott Brown of Massachusetts rode the Obamacare issue to a surprise victory in the 2010 special election for Senator following the death of Ted Kennedy. He lost his seat in 2012. He resurfaced in New Hampshire this year, running for Senate against the popular incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen.

After Hitting Shaheen on Immigration, Brown Closes Gap in New Hampshire
Scott Brown, the Republican Senate candidate in New Hampshire who has struggled to gain traction against his opponent Jeanne Shaheen, is within two points of the incumbent Democrat in a new poll from WMUR and the University of New Hampshire. The poll shows Shaheen with 46 percent support and Brown, the former GOP senator from Massachusetts, with 44 percent. The previous WMUR-UNH poll, from June, showed Shaheen with a 12-point lead over Brown, 52 percent to 40 percent.

......But Brown has also focused heavily on the issue of illegal immigration in television advertisements over the past few weeks, first highlighting security differences between the airport and the southern border, then hitting Shaheen more directly over her position on the Gang of 8 immigration bill, supported by President Obama. Shaheen, along with every other Democratic senator, voted for the Gang of 8 bill.

"Want to know why there's lawlessness on our border? Ask Senator Shaheen," said Brown in a 15-second TV ad that shows Shaheen and Obama standing together. "She voted against border security twice and for amnesty."

The Republican party establishment is pro-immigration because they are loyal to the business community, which desires low wages for American workers. The party wrote off Eric Cantor's primary defeat to other issues, even though immigration was the top issue. New Hampshire is not as conservative an area as Cantor's House district and the fact that immigration has had this large of an impact is a big sign that the issue is ready to take off as it did in the UK. This is not going to be a single election issue either. The U.S. is 5 to 10 years behind on restricting immigration relative to Europe and Anglosphere countries. A politician who stakes claim to this issue will do well for the next two elections at least, since Obama won't take the issue off the table by restricting immigration.

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