2015-10-14

Fastenal CEO Excuse: Recession

Manufacturing is a leading indicator and it is slowing in China and the United States. The China slowdown is old news, the U.S. slowdown is more recent.

ZH: Fastenal CEO: "The Industrial Environment Is In A Recession - I Don’t Care What Anybody Says!"
Not surprising, FAST indicated the industrial outlook has deteriorated in particular during the month of September. In fact, September, was the first month since 2009 in which FAST experienced y/y declines. Along with the stronger dollar, FAST noted continued oil and gas headwinds, and heavy manufacturing. By geography, Texas took a step down and FAST noted slowing growth in Canada. Of FAST's top 100 customers, 44 saw top line declines. Of the 44, 32 were negative by more than 10% and 17 were negative by more than 25%. FAST does not expect to see any improvement for the next several quarters and believes the industrial environment is in a recession.
If the CEO is covering his ass, nothing to see here. If he's at all accurately describing the situation, the global slowdown is about to hit the U.S.

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