New Home Prices Rise Faster, But First Tier Still Dominates

New home prices rose 0.20% month on month in September, faster than the 0.17% increase in August, the 0.15% increase in July and the 0.16% increase in June. As in August, prices have stabilized, but are not accelerating higher.

Shenzhen was responsible for 58% of the price increase in July. The four first-tier cities combined for 95% of the total increase. Things improved slightly in August. Shenzhen accounted for 42% of the increase, while first-tier cities combined for 69% of the total increase. The four first-tier were the top four gainers as well. In September, Shenzhen is still going strong at 29% of the total national increase in new home prices (its prices climbed 4% for the month). The four first tier cities were 57% of the total increase. Clearly there's a favorable trend away from first-tier city dominance and more cities are turning positive in the prices. Removing the first-tier cities shows an increase of only 0.09% in the remaining 66 cities, an annualized rate of 2.8%.

Year over year, prices are down 2.0%.

Since 2010, average prices are up 8.5%.

March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.
March: 49 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 12 were up.
April: 47 cities saw declines in price mom, 5 cities were flat, 18 were up.
May: 41 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 20 were up.
June: 34 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 27 were up.
July: 39 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 31 were up.
August: 26 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 35 were up.
September: 21 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 39 were up.

Existing home prices were about the same as new home prices last month, increasing 0.18%, but there's a clear deceleration in the gains. That rise is down from the 0.24% increase in August and the 0.3% increase in June and July. Prices are down 1% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have risen an average of 3.5%. Shenzhen existing home prices increased 3.3%, Beijing increased 1.4%, Guangzhou increased 1.2%, Shanghai 1.0%. These four accounted for 54% of the national existing home price increase, slightly higher than August, which was slightly higher than July. So contra new homes, where bifurcation is easing very slightly, bifurcation intensified slightly in existing homes.

Source: 2015年9月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况