Chinese Watch Yuan for PBoC Currency Policy, Market Primed for CNYUSD Drop

The yuan fix weakened on Wednesday and Thursday amid a U.S. dollar bounce, keeping the currency basket steady. What interests Chinese analysts is what they see as a possible 6.45 line in sand above which the yuan will not climb:
Market participants pay close attention to Thursday's central parity, in order to explore the Chinese central bank's intentions. The central parity of the main driving force for the development of offshore renminbi movements. China's central bank on Wednesday the central parity of RMB against the US dollar exchange rate set at 1 US dollar 6.4943 yuan, compared with Tuesday's central parity of 6.4565 yuan down 378 points and its biggest rate increases since last August.

He fell to the lowest in over a month on the night of trading in the onshore renminbi against the US dollar.

USD / offshore renminbi current 100-day moving average 6.5378 or forming near term resistance, consistently below the 100-day moving average since early March.

Mizuho Bank currency strategist Zhang Jiantai in note to clients wrote, although in the past few weeks the dollar sell-off, but still not be able to offshore renminbi against the US dollar rose 6.47 broken horizontal line, it may be because China's central bank set the central parity hesitant at 6.45 or more problems. Suggesting that China's central bank is unlikely to allow the yuan to continue to rise this year.
A comment by another analyst gets to the heart of current psychology:
Standard Chartered in Hong Kong currency strategist Eddie Cheung said that if the dollar rose, while the currency basket still falls, the market will panic because it means that the yuan depreciation against the dollar will be very fast.
It's all about the dollar. Here's where I think we are today:

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