China Central Govt Budget Surplus Collapsing

China Daily: China's fiscal revenue rises 7.3% in May

China's fiscal revenue rose 7.3 percent year on year to 1.546 trillion yuan ($234.8 billion) in May, data from the Ministry of Finance showed on Monday.

...The revenue growth was down from the 14.4-percent gain posted for April.

...In May, fiscal spending gained 17.6 percent to hit 1.546 trillion yuan, bringing expenditure for the January-May period to 6.653 trillion yuan, up 13.6 percent year on year.

CITICS sees a budget deficit as early as July: 前5月财政盈余同比下降42.11% 财政赤字或提早至7月. The budget went into deficit in September last year, but it's on pace to arrive by July at the latest:

May the public budget revenue grew 7.3% (14.4% in April), expenses increased 17.6% (4.5% in April). As we said in the April review of the data, April fiscal improvement is an illusion, expenditure "wide finance" under the substantial growth to return to normal, while revenue downward pressure, compared with last year, the fiscal deficit from last year's 9 or early May to July appears.

...Economic fundamentals leading to lower VAT, corporate income tax and other major growth slowed sharply in May the national tax revenue 1.3252 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% (increase of 17.5% in April), the national general public budget revenue 1.5461 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3% (14.4% in April). Among them, the general public the central budget revenue 756.9 billion yuan, down 2.2% (2.4% in April), mainly due to value-added tax and enterprise income tax and other central share fell sharply; local general budget at the same level of public revenue 789.2 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% (24.7% in April), "camp changed by" declare in advance and settle the business tax is still driven by substantial growth in sales tax to support local government public budget income growth.

The government is spending faster in 2016:

May monthly expenditure growth is substantial growth in overall spending to accelerate progress compared with last year. May, the national general public budget expenditures 1.5461 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.6% (4.5% in April), a substantial increase compared with April, and by the impact of the replacement bond issuance in May to reduce disturbance factors (May issue of replacement debt 527.1 billion yuan, compared with 1.1 trillion in April fell sharply, and last May have replaced debt issued 134.1 billion yuan), expenditure "wide finance" under the substantial growth to return to normal. From a financial point of view the progress of expenditure, 1--5 year, the national general public budget expenditures 6.6528 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%, accounting for 39% at the beginning of budget expenditure (38% last year), overall expenditure compared with last year to speed up progress.

The report also said the rebound in land finance was unsustainable.