The Coming U.S. Labor Shortage

The biggest business story of the next five years
“Software eating the world” implied that digital upstarts were going to create low cost solutions to take demand away from older, high cost analog firms. Amazon eating big box stores, Facebook eating print and TV. Demand was going to shift. “Housing eating the U.S. economy” implies that housing is going to steal your inputs. They’re coming for your workers and capital on the supply side. It’s a different dynamic but a similar outcome — housing is poised to reassert itself as the main driver of the U.S. economy.
As soon as the construction wages start rising, the unemployment rate will soar because discouraged workers will be looking for jobs again.

There's a gap between expected wage growth between Clinton and Trump. If Clinton wins, American wages will stay depressed thanks to increased labor supply from immigration. If Trump wins, American wages could enter an inflationary cycle. If wages rise, more people will get married and have children, increasing the demand for housing. This could trigger a phase shift in the economy.

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