Slowdown in Private Investment a Long-Term Trend

Bloomberg: No Need to Be Alarmed by China Private Investment Crash, Say Analysts
Investment numbers this year aren’t completely comparable with 2015 because they include firms that recently migrated from the private to the state sector, says Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Research firm Rhodium Group and economist Louis Kuijs at Oxford Economics Ltd. have spotted the same discrepancy.

“Policy makers and the market should not worry unnecessarily about misleading data purportedly implying a scary sudden divergence in 2016 between private and non-private investment,” Kuijs said in a report last week.
Even if you wave away the increase in SOEs as a statistical blip not caused by government stimulus efforts, you still have the long-term trend. Total FAI was growing at 20 percent in July 2013, 16 percent in July 2014, 10 percent in July 2015, 4 percent in July 2016. All trends come to an end, but right now this one says July 2017 FAI growth will be below zero.

The slowdown in Chinese investment matches the persistent deterioration in global economic data. Here's U.S. total vehicle sales, monthly, year-on-year change. The slowdown and trend looks very much like the China and global commodities slowdown.
Retail sales are one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy:

The argument from the bulls is that the collapse isn't accelerating, but they have yet to say when the now 5-year slowdown will end.

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