2018-06-18

Nationalists Rising: Allied Voters Moving in Trump's Direction

Last month I wrote, Anti-Trump European Leaders Will Soon Be Gone

Globalism is unpopular. Leaders such as Merkel implemented peak social mood policies (mainly immigration) that would be extremist even for peak mood, but social mood is far below peak levels. Mood is either falling or only experiencing a counter-trend rally. The establishment, the broad political center, media, government and universities, the mainstream of political debate sometimes excludes right-wing and nationalist parties from government, sometimes even from debate. As a result, in countries such as Germany, the establishment as a whole drifts to the left as social mood declines. The new center is moving right/nationalist, which opens room for an expansion by right-wing and nationalist parties if other parties don't follow the Danish left and swing nationalist on immigration. These politicians and parties have a monopoly on nationalism. It is only a matter of time before the winds shift in a period of declining mood.

Many of President Trump's critics blast him for upsetting allies with his trade policies, but they miss the meta narrative of globalism versus nationalism. It is more accurate to say Trump is upsetting globalists.
Friction with leaders opposed to his policies are a feature, not a bug of his foreign policy.

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