2018-09-08

Crypto Selling Resumes, Monster Topping Pattern on Ethereum, Watch Out FANGs

Most cryptocurrencies are not at new lows, but if they hold current levels (as of this post) they will "close" at new lows. The center of attention right now is Ethereum. It is tracing out a massive topping pattern. If this pattern breaks, a return to the $10 range looks very likely. There's a little support around current levels, but if the selling resumes, I don't see a lot of support between here and $10.
Bitcoin remains above the kep $6,000 level. If Ethereum breaks below here, I expect Bitcoin will lose $6,000 and the plug will be pulled on many altcoins. There are topping patterns in many charts as I've shown. One altcoin that remains a reliable indicator is Decred. As long as it's out of its channel, the cryptocurrency market is at higher risk of disorderly selling (crash).
Finally, cryptocurrencies were the bleeding edge of speculative activity. The breaking of topping patterns in majors such as Bitcion and Ethereum will be a signal that stocks, particularly the FANGs, are on thin ice. Here's Alibaba (BABA), for example, sporting a topping pattern similar to Ethereum. Not as massive a topping pattern or with as low a target, but it will cause far more losses. Ethereum has a $20 billion market cap that could go back to $1 or $2 billion, an $18 or $19 billion loss. Alibaba's market cap is $417 billion. A measured move off its topping pattern would cause $117 billion in losses.

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