2019-09-10

Eastern Banks Have Halted Lending to Developers

China has trouble generating credit growth without sparking a housing rally. Conversely, evidence suggests China cannot generate credit growth without real estate lending or government-directed stimulus (infrastructure).

Additionally, there's not much evidence of real estate restrictions working, rather home prices have typically tracked credit growth. There was some loosening of restrictions as provinces and cities used the excuse of a "talent war," but lately they've been tightening them up as credit conditions ease.

China is facing a critical moment with credit growth in the range of 10 percent and banks already failing. It needs faster credit growth, but officials also do not want get back on the wheel of suffering, since every stimulus fails within 2 years. China wants something new: credit growth that flows to productive uses. Prior efforts failed as SOEs and others took advantage of financial repression. They borrowed cheaply from sate banks and then made loans to real estate developers at higher interest rates.

财新: 银行收紧开发贷 华东个别分行已暂停放贷
How to make funds no longer flock to the real estate market when liquidity is relatively abundant?
Since the end of April, “the housing has not been speculative” has returned to the Central Politburo meeting, the policy signal of real estate financing has gradually become clear: strict control increments and enhanced compliance. At the same time as the channels such as real estate trusts and bond issuance are tightened, the supervision and regulation of the housing loans in the bank tables are simultaneously regulated.

  According to Caixin reporter, since July, many banks have received guidance from the supervision window, which has control over the scale and growth rate of real estate development loans and mortgage loans. Among them, real estate development loans exceed a certain percentage of banks, not add new real estate development loans. In short, the pressure on banks to focus on real estate loans.
ICBC's many branch presidents pointed out to Caixin reporter that the branch-related loans of their branches were zero growth, and even some pressure dropped. “The head office unifiedly allocated loan quotas, and did not add new real estate development loans. A person from the head office of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank pointed out that the regulatory requirements, the proportion of housing loans to total loans can only be limited to a certain amount; if the bank's loans to manufacturing, small and micro loans increase, then The amount of housing loans can also be moderately increased.

  Under the current situation, the approval and tightening of housing-related loans is the norm. A person from the relevant department of the Bank of China told the Caixin reporter that the current housing loan is still being released, but the approval is stricter and must be in full compliance with the “four three two” (ie “four certificates” and 30% self-owned funds. Projects with secondary qualifications can only be invested. A general manager of a certain branch of the Industrial Bank also pointed out that the whole bank implemented “individual declaration and separate approval” for real estate development loans. Even if the reported projects are approved, they will have to wait until the scale is moved out to lend. At that time, you can only suspend lending.

Banks tighten development loans, and the impact on real estate companies is self-evident. At present, real estate companies mainly rely on pre-issuance of bonds and sales repayments. Superimposing the restrictions on sales implemented in certain regions, the real estate enterprises with insufficient initial reserve will have a greater impact on their cash flow.

  According to Caixin’s previous report, the background of this round of real estate financing regulation stems from the fact that in the second half of 2018, the real estate market has partially loosened, the land king has reappeared, and house prices have rebounded almost completely, which has caused the market to worry about the Chinese economy’s old path. At the beginning of 2019, senior decision-makers had requested to strengthen the management of real estate finance and avoid further stimulus to real estate in the context of a significant improvement in the credit environment.
The key short-term takeaway: the Chinese economy's old path was one of recovery. The downturns of 2011, 2014 and 2016 were reversed by a rapid reversal in home prices, land prices and real estate investment. The stimulus worked because the housing market quickly put capital to use.

This time, housing is acting as a limiter. Banks cannot lend unless they expand their loan book, but other borrowers are under pressure from a slowing economy. Banks are not making many loans because they don't see good risk-reward in lending to SMEs. This is not a sustainable path because credit bubbles require rapid credit expansion. China slowed from 13 percent credit growth last year to 10 percent this year. A slowdown to 7 or 8 percent in 2020 won't generate a equivalent slowdown in activity, it would threaten to tip the economy into collapse, as a slowdown in credit growth took down the U.S. economy heading into 2008.

Credit systems require borrowers and they require profitable lending opportunities for banks. It will be very good news for China and the global economy if the country can grow without the housing/real estate development market pulling it. Unfortunately, clear signs of success have yet to appear.

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