2020-01-26

Coronavirus Initial Thoughts

Initial numbers aren't useful. Even if China put out the best numbers, they are dealing with an unknown contagion. SARS mortality rate was high initially because doctors didn't know how to treat it and I recall reading that early treatment may have caused a higher mortality rate. Take everything with a grain of salt.

If the disease incubates for 14 days before the patient shows symptoms, but is contagious during this time, it could have emerged in November. Reports of a viral pneumonia in Wuhan were spreading in late December. It was already too late to contain.

The US (and other nations?) are at most, checking airline passengers for symptoms (fever).

I haven't seen numbers on how many patients require intensive care. A patient in the USA who has contracted a non-severe case of coronavirus may not seek out medical care. Even if they did, the screen might be "Have you been to China recently? Flown out of the country?" It's not improbable that they'd answer no to both, assuming doctors and hospitals in areas with zero cases are even screening patients. My hunch is they would get classified as a flu patient if they pass the screen. If this disease is highly communicable, cases could explode once testing is widely used.

Example: Local hospitals screening for coronavirus as outbreak continues to spread in China
"We've already rolled out screening protocols to all of our emergency rooms here as far as asking about travel so we can be aware of any risk but we're not freaking out," said Dr. Amy Edwards, a University Hospitals Pediatric Infectious Disease Specialist.

SARS had a much higher mortality rate, but was far less contagious. The best medicine was exercise, healthy habits (wash hands frequently, avoid touching eyes, nose, etc.). The threat from coronavirus seems to be that it is more contagious than deadly, but a even a 2% mortality rate is 20x higher than the average flu.

Assuming it doesn't infect a huge number of people or mutate and come back more lethal like Spanish flu did, the economy could still be impacted because it is hard to predict how people would react. If this is an contagious as initial reports, I could imagine most people with young children will avoid work. Schools will close. Unclear how the economy would be impacted if a significant population takes an extended vacation out of an overabundance, but appropriate amount, of caution. In this respect, China will provide excellent information.

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