Like Water for Copper

This stock did a 1:100 reverse split last year. It has a nice base. They do wastewater treatment for miners. I like this as a picks & shovels play on a mining bull market.

The Civil War Begins With The Great Reset

Civil strife is coming to the West.

coat of armsOPEN LETTER
to the President of the United States of America
Donald J. Trump

Sunday, October 25, 2020
Solemnity of Christ the King

Mister President,

Allow me to address you at this hour in which the fate of the whole world is being threatened by a global conspiracy against God and humanity. I write to you as an Archbishop, as a Successor of the Apostles, as the former Apostolic Nuncio to the United States of America. I am writing to you in the midst of the silence of both civil and religious authorities. May you accept these words of mine as the “voice of one crying out in the desert” (Jn 1:23).

As I said when I wrote my letter to you in June, this historical moment sees the forces of Evil aligned in a battle without quarter against the forces of Good; forces of Evil that appear powerful and organized as they oppose the children of Light, who are disoriented and disorganized, abandoned by their temporal and spiritual leaders.

Daily we sense the attacks multiplying of those who want to destroy the very basis of society: the natural family, respect for human life, love of country, freedom of education and business. We see heads of nations and religious leaders pandering to this suicide of Western culture and its Christian soul, while the fundamental rights of citizens and believers are denied in the name of a health emergency that is revealing itself more and more fully as instrumental to the establishment of an inhuman faceless tyranny.

A global plan called the Great Reset is underway. Its architect is a global élite that wants to subdue all of humanity, imposing coercive measures with which to drastically limit individual freedoms and those of entire populations. In several nations this plan has already been approved and financed; in others it is still in an early stage. Behind the world leaders who are the accomplices and executors of this infernal project, there are unscrupulous characters who finance the World Economic Forum and Event 201, promoting their agenda.

The purpose of the Great Reset is the imposition of a health dictatorship aiming at the imposition of liberticidal measures, hidden behind tempting promises of ensuring a universal income and cancelling individual debt. The price of these concessions from the International Monetary Fund will be the renunciation of private property and adherence to a program of vaccination against Covid-19 and Covid-21 promoted by Bill Gates with the collaboration of the main pharmaceutical groups. Beyond the enormous economic interests that motivate the promoters of the Great Reset, the imposition of the vaccination will be accompanied by the requirement of a health passport and a digital ID, with the consequent contact tracing of the population of the entire world. Those who do not accept these measures will be confined in detention camps or placed under house arrest, and all their assets will be confiscated.

Mr. President, I imagine that you are already aware that in some countries the Great Reset will be activated between the end of this year and the first trimester of 2021. For this purpose, further lockdowns are planned, which will be officially justified by a supposed second and third wave of the pandemic. You are well aware of the means that have been deployed to sow panic and legitimize draconian limitations on individual liberties, artfully provoking a world-wide economic crisis. In the intentions of its architects, this crisis will serve to make the recourse of nations to the Great Reset irreversible, thereby giving the final blow to a world whose existence and very memory they want to completely cancel. But this world, Mr. President, includes people, affections, institutions, faith, culture, traditions, and ideals: people and values that do not act like automatons, who do not obey like machines, because they are endowed with a soul and a heart, because they are tied together by a spiritual bond that draws its strength from above, from that God that our adversaries want to challenge, just as Lucifer did at the beginning of time with his “non serviam.”

Many people – as we well know – are annoyed by this reference to the clash between Good and Evil and the use of “apocalyptic” overtones, which according to them exasperates spirits and sharpens divisions. It is not surprising that the enemy is angered at being discovered just when he believes he has reached the citadel he seeks to conquer undisturbed. What is surprising, however, is that there is no one to sound the alarm. The reaction of the deep state to those who denounce its plan is broken and incoherent, but understandable. Just when the complicity of the mainstream media had succeeded in making the transition to the New World Order almost painless and unnoticed, all sorts of deceptions, scandals and crimes are coming to light.

Until a few months ago, it was easy to smear as “conspiracy theorists” those who denounced these terrible plans, which we now see being carried out down to the smallest detail. No one, up until last February, would ever have thought that, in all of our cities, citizens would be arrested simply for wanting to walk down the street, to breathe, to want to keep their business open, to want to go to church on Sunday. Yet now it is happening all over the world, even in picture-postcard Italy that many Americans consider to be a small enchanted country, with its ancient monuments, its churches, its charming cities, its characteristic villages. And while the politicians are barricaded inside their palaces promulgating decrees like Persian satraps, businesses are failing, shops are closing, and people are prevented from living, traveling, working, and praying. The disastrous psychological consequences of this operation are already being seen, beginning with the suicides of desperate entrepreneurs and of our children, segregated from friends and classmates, told to follow their classes while sitting at home alone in front of a computer.

In Sacred Scripture, Saint Paul speaks to us of “the one who opposes” the manifestation of the mystery of iniquity, the kathèkon (2 Thess 2:6-7). In the religious sphere, this obstacle to evil is the Church, and in particular the papacy; in the political sphere, it is those who impede the establishment of the New World Order.

As is now clear, the one who occupies the Chair of Peter has betrayed his role from the very beginning in order to defend and promote the globalist ideology, supporting the agenda of the deep church, who chose him from its ranks.

Mr. President, you have clearly stated that you want to defend the nation – One Nation under God, fundamental liberties, and non-negotiable values that are denied and fought against today. It is you, dear President, who are “the one who opposes” the deep state, the final assault of the children of darkness.

For this reason, it is necessary that all people of good will be persuaded of the epochal importance of the imminent election: not so much for the sake of this or that political program, but because of the general inspiration of your action that best embodies – in this particular historical context – that world, our world, which they want to cancel by means of the lockdown. Your adversary is also our adversary: it is the Enemy of the human race, He who is “a murderer from the beginning” (Jn 8:44).

Around you are gathered with faith and courage those who consider you the final garrison against the world dictatorship. The alternative is to vote for a person who is manipulated by the deep state, gravely compromised by scandals and corruption, who will do to the United States what Jorge Mario Bergoglio is doing to the Church, Prime Minister Conte to Italy, President Macron to France, Prime Minster Sanchez to Spain, and so on. The blackmailable nature of Joe Biden – just like that of the prelates of the Vatican’s “magic circle” – will expose him to be used unscrupulously, allowing illegitimate powers to interfere in both domestic politics as well as international balances. It is obvious that those who manipulate him already have someone worse than him ready, with whom they will replace him as soon as the opportunity arises.

And yet, in the midst of this bleak picture, this apparently unstoppable advance of the “Invisible Enemy,” an element of hope emerges. The adversary does not know how to love, and it does not understand that it is not enough to assure a universal income or to cancel mortgages in order to subjugate the masses and convince them to be branded like cattle. This people, which for too long has endured the abuses of a hateful and tyrannical power, is rediscovering that it has a soul; it is understanding that it is not willing to exchange its freedom for the homogenization and cancellation of its identity; it is beginning to understand the value of familial and social ties, of the bonds of faith and culture that unite honest people. This Great Reset is destined to fail because those who planned it do not understand that there are still people ready to take to the streets to defend their rights, to protect their loved ones, to give a future to their children and grandchildren. The leveling inhumanity of the globalist project will shatter miserably in the face of the firm and courageous opposition of the children of Light. The enemy has Satan on its side, He who only knows how to hate. But on our side, we have the Lord Almighty, the God of armies arrayed for battle, and the Most Holy Virgin, who will crush the head of the ancient Serpent. “If God is for us, who can be against us?” (Rom 8:31).

Mr. President, you are well aware that, in this crucial hour, the United States of America is considered the defending wall against which the war declared by the advocates of globalism has been unleashed. Place your trust in the Lord, strengthened by the words of the Apostle Paul: “I can do all things in Him who strengthens me” (Phil 4:13). To be an instrument of Divine Providence is a great responsibility, for which you will certainly receive all the graces of state that you need, since they are being fervently implored for you by the many people who support you with their prayers.

With this heavenly hope and the assurance of my prayer for you, for the First Lady, and for your collaborators, with all my heart I send you my blessing.

God bless the United States of America!

signature of Viganò

+ Carlo Maria Viganò
Tit. Archbishop of Ulpiana
Former Apostolic Nuncio to the United States of America

Yield Curve Still Bearish for Stocks

As much as I love the setups in gold miners and have ample exposure there, there are plenty of warning signs for the broader stock market.


Euro Topping Analogs

Russia on the Edge

Russia's central bank sold gold recently, along with basket case central banks in Turkey and Uzbekistan. Ruble and Russian stock makret look weak. The Russia ETF priced in USD is going to bounce right here or make a major breakdown.

LatAm Trouble on the Horizon

Market Exit One Day Away

Who knows what direction the market moves today and in the coming days, but the high-yield spread is one more day of selling away from signaling time to exit risk assets. The drop in oil today, if it holds, could be enough to push spreads over the line because there are a lot of shale producers with high-yield bonds.
Certainly it is my bias, but USDJPY looks like a harbinger of doom no matter which way it goes. Down and it's a typical risk-off move in assets. Higher and it looks like a big inverted H&S that would result in a collapsing yen.


Bottom Fishing

Contra the breakout charts, here's one that's bottoming out. There is 33 percent downside risk to that support line. I don't have a position, but watching.


Very Bad Indicator For Democrats

Democrats say they're voting by mail in much larger percentatges than the GOP, but one political intelligence firm things the two parties are close to neck and neck. Assuming intentions are accurate, this points to a big Republican win next week. I haven't seen a data point other than this, that makes me think a GOP sweep of Congress is possible. A turnout advantage makes it possible though. Not putting too much weight on this, but it is part of an overall picture that shows the gap closing and races tightening into tossups.

Tossups as of October 26

39 House Tossups, 9 Senate Tossups on RealClearPolitics today.


Bitcoin Broke Out Versus Gold on October 12

The measured move off an inverse H&S would Bitcoin to 9.3 times the gold price. That in turn would complete a massive base with a target at 16:1 in the future...
Still the pattern versus silver.


Forget the Election, Near Future May Come Down to Stimulus

Most traders are focused on the election and potential volatility around it, but there could be massive volatility in the next year. A secular shift into value/commodities could be underway or a shock downturn in the markets if credit don't improve or government deficits don't offset the lack of private borrowing.

A few of the funds, stocks, and currnecies that could be impacted by the election are below. Long-term, the election will be a footnote for most assets. The U.S. dollar is headed in the same direction either way. USG's fiscal deficit is headed in the same direction. However, the risk of another dollar "bull" rally is higher with Trump because of his trade and economic policies. If Republicans hold the Senate, Biden's spending plans will be limited. If Democrats take the Congress, they will eliminate the filibuster, lowering the risk of defection on spending and other bills. That's the most bearish scenario for the dollar.

The dollar looks bearish. As covered in recent posts, it broke its very long-term trendline. The past two breaks met sustained selling for 18 to 24 months. A rebound to 96 would invalidate the analog. A rebound would not invalidate a bear market, but as long as it could sustain a rally, the terminus of such a move could have a wide range of possibilities. A break of 88 on the downside would be the point at which I'd through caution to the wind when it comes to weak dollar trades. For short-term trades, the most volaitle outcome would probably be Trump win expressin in KRW and CNY.

Solar, marijuana and guns are all at interesting junctures because while they have rallied strongly (perhaps the Biden bet), they could be in techncial breakdowns if a Trump win reversed even a little of the recent gains. I added a new marijuana ETF, symbol MSOS, that covers the U.S. market. That is the best bet for those bullish on cannabis legalization at the state or federal level. Also added natural gas and fracking ETFs. There are much bigger issues at play with these sectors including high debt levels, but natural gas looks like it might have bottomed. Perhaps a Trump win would be the spark that ignites the sector.
Commodities and infrastructure also look bullish here. I'm using a bunch of ag ETFs inatead of futures because they are confirming or look set to confirm bullish developments on the futures charts. Copper and copper miners have both taken bullish turns. I threw in Nigeria because I think it is the best example of a resource-exporting frontier market. It looks similar to some of those ag charts.
Cryptocurrencies are showing bullish patters. Bitcoin needs to crack $13,800, call it $14,000, to hit that red box at $17,000 by year end.
I remain long-term bullish in gold miners. I have sold my TLT puts and bought some SIL puts to hedge. Long commodities, crypto, value and inflation looks much more attractive than long technology and major indexes. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasadaq peaked in September. Only the Russell 2000 has moved higher and it still has bearish potential. The seeds for a post-election correction led by technology are there, particularly with a Trump win. Longer-term, the weight of evidence is moving in favor of a secular shift in markets and inflation.

That said, take a look at Nigeria around 2016, a similar pattern followed by a breakout that failed at the calendar turned to 2018. Every central bank intervention before has produced brief spikes in commodities, emerging markets and inflation expectations. Every spike was followed by new lows as structural deflation in the eurodollar market reemerged. Putting it together, commodities and value look good in the next 6 to 18 months with risk of a post-election correction. Reassess moving forward based on major fundamentals such as DXY, copper price, etc.

Far more important than the election is the real economy. Total Loans and Leases at commercial banks (TOTLL) have reversed most of their covid gains. Year on year growth is back to 2018 levels, consistent with the stagnating post-2008 economy. Government stimlus must remain high if private borrowing doesn't pick up. If borrowing doesn't pick up or stimulus doesn't offset weak private borrowing, all these bullish charts are going to sour fast in 2021.

The 30-year mortgage keeps falling despite a rebound in long-term government bond yields. This should bottom and turn higher if there's a general bullish resolution after the election or major stimulus.
The clearest asset to me remains gold and maybe Bitcion because the central bank and government will act if the economy sinks. Gold can climb even if monetary intervention fails. At some point in that scenario, gold and even gold mining shares will stop falling with other assets because investors will realize the government's interventions are failing. They will start pricing in more and larger interventions into the gold price. This will be expressed in the gold/copper ratio making a bullish breakout. Right now it looks like it wants to trend back into the pattern...