2020-12-07

Extreme Outcomes Increasingly Likely in Financial Markets

Call option volume. If you look closely, the prior peak was in January 2018. Volmageddon was unleashed in February 2018. The call volume didn't directly cause that blow up, but options are priced in part based on supply and demand. A world in which this makes sense is as volatile as a world where it doesn't. The difference is if this makes sense, then a major trend towards inflation could be underway, and it could last months or years. If this is not sustainable, a market crash or extreme correction that will qualify as a technical bear market (down 20 percent or more) could be weeks to a couple of months away, and that drop will happen in days.
Great setups in all manner of natural resource sectors from gold to copper and uranium to oil exist, but I suspect most of this call volume is related to technology and not LEAPs on resource stocks.

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