Bounce or Test For Nasdaq

Spin the wheel. NQ is either going to find support at the lower horizontal and bounce or it will test the January 10 low. Northman Trader had a chart showing that several of the past months, but not October or November IIRC, had lows come at the monthly opex. A similar move would see stocks fall into next Friday, though not necessarily in a straight line.

To drill home the bounce or drop situation, here is ARKK. The next support line I have drawn is almost 40 percent lower at $50. If that seems nuts, there is a gap around $72 (yellw) and it would probably make a pit stop at $60 (cyan).

I make no forecasts. The market is captured by algorithmic traders and delusional bulls with a seemingly endless supply of cash courtesy of the Fed on one side and extreme valuations on the other. Bears are cowed. I think the ARKK chart is a metaphor for the whole market. The bulls will keep buying every bounce and slow any decline with ripping rallies to lower highs or the selling will be compressed in time and turn into a panic. There still hasn't been any capitulation selling despite the damage on the market. The S&P 500 Index is only 3 percent off its all-time high.

I mentioned XBI weekly puts over the weekend and didn't buy. it cracked the horizontal yesterday.

I did make one lotto trade today, $62 1 DTE puts on XLE for 9 cents. Solely a fence swing on the chance that all hell breaks loose tomorrow.