2022-02-11

Crash Time: Federal Reserve Destroys Credibility with Bullard Reaction

A week ago Bullard said he didn't know what 50bp hike buys the Fed, and then yesterday said a 50bp hike plus intermeeting hike makes sense. Many people are attacking Bullard for being a flipflopper and causing a dip in the markets. Instead, you need to look at the Fed's reaction. Bullard said something that the market had been worrying about, that many people agree with. How did the Federal Reserve react? By all but openly denying it and throwing Bullard under the bus. Bullard has exposed the emperor has no clothes.

If the Fed actually wanted to do less, it could let Bullard's comments percolate and then come in dovish if necessary. Instead, it unleashed an extreme overreaction that indicates they are far, far away from what Bullard said.

ZH: Fed Scrambles To Push Back Against Damage Caused By Bullard's "Immature, Unprofessional" Comments(Archive link)

After yesterday’s shockingly hawkish post-CPI outburst by Bullard, which sparked the biggest US rate shock since Volcker’s October 1979 massacre...

...and whose comments RJ O’Brien slammed as “immature and unprofessional” adding that “as a 2022 voter, the St Louis President — who has a history of verbal gaffes and inaccurate monetary proclamations — may have gone too far in his comments on immediate policy”, the bond market has gone on tilt with yields blowing up especially on the front-end in one of the most memorable one-day curve flattenings in history...

It's over folks. Nobody is in charge. The vast majority of the market has no clue what's going on. Evidence is right here in bond market volatility. I posted SRVIX recently, as I've been looking at shorting bonds. The chart has a clear base and was moving towards a breakout. If you've been paying attention, the breakout in bond volatility was expected. I'm not sure who RJ O'Brien is, but if its the financial firm, it only speaks to how clueless and corrupt financial institutions are, that they panic over someone stating the obvious:
Bullard didn't even create the breakout, it happened in the morning following the inflation data:
It is go time for the bond vigilantes, the crude vigilantes and equity bears. The timing and place of the next major market move is in their hands. The Fed's "Baghdad Bob" moment is already playing out.

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