A full and immediate embargo would displace 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil, sending Brent crude to $185 a barrel as such a ban would leave "neither room nor time to re-route [supplies] to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers," the investment bank said in a note. That would mark a 63% surge from Brent's close of $113.16 on Monday.An embargo will have about four months impact, but wreck the European economy in the short-term. The biggest casualty will be the euro with the Fed simultaneously ramping up QT over the next three months....The EU is weighing a ban as a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February. But if the bloc were to put in place an embargo over a four-month period, prices are unlikely to rise much higher than current levels, the bank said. Such a time period would be similar to Europe's ban on coal imports.
"In a slower phase-out," the bank said, "Russia would have more time to adjust its oil flows toward friendlier buyers and global ex-OPEC+ supply growth would have time to grow sufficiently to fill at least some of the Russia-sized hole in global oil supply."
Easter Eggs (1 of 21): Hot Air
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FEEDPreface to all 21 parts: This is a special holiday weekend, because not
only does it contain Good Friday and Easter, but it also begins the Slope
of Ho...
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