IICS Recession Call Looking Good, Getting Ready to Call a Tradable Low

After seeing Wall Street banks debate whether a recession will start in Q4 or early in 2023, and after discussing for a couple months how a recession could already be underway, I decided to make a recession call backdated to January 2022. We're in the recession now and the second quarter GDP report will confirm.

The latest Atlanta Fed reading says it might be a great call:

I have had a rough month trading as the market chopped from bull to bear, but I think the tradable low is really taking form now. I'm almost totally long except for some doom puts on utilities (XLU). I still have XLC on, short oil, long TLT and looking to go long biotech again in size. I went long NQ with a call overnight, sold out in the morning and got back in near the low of the day.

I don't know if the low is in yet, and if I'm wrong, the low could be 10- to 20 percent lower from here. Yet, I'm a skittish bull here.

That said, let's go to the charts.

It has been a brutal couple of days in the market, but IBB has held its 50-day MA.

XLC still holding for a potential bullish squeeze.

TLT looking good here, but not out of the woods yet.

Here's USO, the crude oil ETF. It is at support.

XLU has a very bullish candle. Dumping that position as I type.