2022-06-30

The Long and Short of It: Crash Time

The crash window is open. It needs confirmation from high-yield debt. Once that goes, we'll have a credit event in addition to the stock market event, and then we can get free falling moves in stocks. Technical indicators are extreme as well. The crash window can also slam shut and trap the bears. My highest confidence trades are in treasury bond calls (TLT) and crude oil puts (USO).
BTC is busted again, but off the lows. HYG hasn't busted a support line, but it has a similar h-pattern forming.
All the pieces are in place for a rally, and a big one. After days of relatively even put/call buying by one ratio I follow, puts surged this morning. It looks like the opening of the collapse in SPY to new lows that kicked off on June 9.
Barring a bear trap here, the XLC trade is in the shitter.
NQ broke the megaphone. There is basically no downside support except the prior low.

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