XLE has been a juggernaut, but the turn is where the big money can be made. When it reversed, it will be a blistering and relentless plunge. I bought montly puts that expire next week, the $89 strike.
I added some July 70 puts on USO. Those are way out of the money, but that's the scale of the move that could unfold. I will dump those early if crude doesn't rapidly collapse. I also added more Sept $35 GDX calls this morning. I had trimmed the position down to a small lot, and built it back up today. More of a hunch than anything else. The charts aren't looking good frankly, and there could be one more plunge left. There is some similarity between 2016-2018 and 2020-now, and that ended with a big sell-off in August 2018 ahead of the broader market's plunge-o-rama during QT1. Therefore, it could be that gold miners also sell-off here, but if QT2 hits like a Mack truck immediately, then gold miners might already be through the worst of the macro. Update: I saw another trader looking at gold and oil. It is right where it was in September/October 2018 when QT1 hit like a Mack truck.
Blurred [sovereign debt restructuring] lines
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Would an official sector creditor by any other name be treated as sweetly?
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