3850 and 3820

If 3820 fells, then a trip towards 3700 is possible. If 3875 clears today, it could set up a breakout tomorrow.

A rally can get going if bonds rally off this support line, rather than break it.

Oil has been both correlated and uncorrelated with stocks. The best behavior for stocks has been when oil plummets. If crude can slide to sub-490, a stock rally will get cooking. It's a long way from here, but this is a volatile season for crude. I expect a few drops of 7 percent or more will be coming in the next couple of months.

The Nasdaq or Russell 2000 should signal a rally is on first. Nasdaq's breakout level is 12200. Russell 2000 will break its June 28 high at 1793.80 if it rises the same percentage.