Churn and Burn

I still think a rally is in the cards, in part because the bears keep piling in. But since this is a bear market, the longer a rally takes, the higher the probability that the rally peak is in. I don't think that it is in yet, could be, but thinking more that the stretch targets become less likely the longer it takes a rally to get going. ES is already back to 3820 area it was battling at last week. If it fails, a trip back to 3700 is in the cards.

Junk bonds tracked with equities, but bonds are down overall.

Ugly candles on biotech funds today.