Apple All-Time Overvalued Level

The gap between economic reality and stock valuations is reaching new extremes. Apple is barely down 10 percent, but accounting for where macro and the overall stock market has moved, the stock is more "overvalued" today than it was in January. I put overvalued in quotes because value investors might say it was more expensive another time. I'm looking at it from a trading perspective. If the market heads to new lows, Apple will make a new low. For example, if SPY hits $340, I expect Apple will be at $120 or lower.


  1. AAPL is one Baizuo* sanctions debacle away from losing a significant portion of its supply chain and customer base. …. Chinese phones, HarmonyOS, and UnionPay work just fine.

    * Am waiting for other countries to start implementing more of their own sanctions. “Gas for rubles” was just a start.

    1. Yes, there's almost zero reason to own Apple here, zero for me. Shorting Apple is a great hedge against market weakness, US-China escalation of any degree and there's extremely limited upside assuming they aren't working on a cancer cure because it's already such a large holding in funds.