Inflation Cheat Sheet

People have their economic hobbyhorses and they can't separate their grocery bill from financial markets. I'm done debating with people. Inflation has peaked in the short-term, both July and August CPIs will be rather low, on pace for maybe 3-percent annualized. If crude falls like that topping pattern says it could, the target is $50 area, inflation is done for good. If I'm wrong then I'll go long! I don't care which way it goes, but I care to look and see what the tells me and what my understanding of economics says. Betting on deflationary collapse is still very cheap because very few traders and investors, outside of the bond market, are looking for it.
The AUDUSD correlation says $30 could be the target for crude oil. That gap is going to close one way or another and right now I'd bet oil comes down bigtime.

1 comment:

  1. Will monkeypox lockdowns make oil bears’ dreams come true?
    While helping to reduce Vladimir’s gas revenue?
    But, which is the cart and which is the horse?
    We follow the science, of course!