Retiring a WAG

This WAG didn't work out with stocks rallying instead of sinking into a bear market. Posting it here in memorium as it will be deleted now.

Jack Ma Rally Adds a Triple

Holy moly. Jack Ma Rally Triples on Tuesday

Jack Ma Triggers 73pc One-Day Rally

Jack Ma met with an agribusiness firm in Thailand. Their shares listed on the Hong Kong market jumped 73 percent on the day.

The 40-Year DJIA Chart Resembles 1928-1929

Tesla too! I don't take this too seriously. Bears are depressed and I noticed some similarity between 1900-920 and 1960-1980, and then wanted to see if the bull markets looked similar. Markets are fractal though, with similar patterns at larger and smaller time scales. Human nature doesn't change either. Maybe there's something to it?

Palladium Breaks Support

Here are prior posts where I used palladium as a signal to short Nasdaq.

Who Wants to Short Commodities?

Nasdaq and Palladium

The Top is Coming

There can be a large gap in time between the moves. I view palladium as the leader here because it broke a major topping pattern. If it recovers, perhaps Nasdaq is leading short-term. A palladium and Nasdaq top are consistent with what I expect for a bear market and transition to new bull market with new leaders.

QQQJ Charts 2

QQQJ Charts

These are interesting charts I saw in the QQQJ ETF, the Nasdaq Next 100 (101-200). Plus SCCO, which is hinting at stagflation breaking out.

Into the Pool Again

Right shoulder

may be completing here.

The Ride Never Ends: China to Inflate Housing Again

It seems like the world is out of ideas.

iFeng: 楼市重磅！央行、银保监会：新房价格连降3个月，可放宽首套房贷利率下限

Reuters: China property shares firm on more policy support, easing curbs

The central bank said on Thursday that for cities where the selling prices of new homes fall month-on-month and year-on-year for three consecutive months, the floor on mortgage rates can be lowered or abolished for first-time home buyers in phases.

China is also planning to relax restrictions on borrowing for property developers by dialing back the "three red lines" policy, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

The property sector, which accounts for a quarter of China's economy

Macau Casinos Invest

iFeng: 澳门赌枱重新洗牌，"赌王"之女成最大赢家

Reuters: Macau casinos deal themselves a tough hand with big non-gaming investment pledges

Casinos have committed to investing a total of $15 billion in the coming decade, 90% of which must be spent on non-gaming.

But operators will find it hard to monetise their non-gaming ventures given their poor track record since 2001, when the former Portuguese colony first liberalized the industry, executives and analysts said.

Non-gaming revenues, which averaged around 5% of overall gaming revenues pre-COVID, must grow to more than 30% in the next decade, said Ben Lee, founder of Macau gaming consultancy IGamiX.

BGI

I'm in a weird spot both recognizing Chinese stocks are cheap on fundamentals, but also a bear market or global recession isn't going to be good for them either. Much more interested in owning something like CGN with a 5 percent dividend yield, than Alibaba or Baidu that is responsible for the pop in FXI today.

The impetus for the move today is the government signaling it will inflate the currency and restart the housing bubble. Interest rates are already falling in China and the 10-year yield is below 3 percent.

Bloomberg: China’s Pledge to Lift Consumption Sparks Debate on Cash Handouts

iFeng: 利好来了！公积金贷款利率下调

Bullish Reasons Stocks Can Rise in 2023

Here's the answer to them: Social mood rules all. The GOP can't even elect a speaker.

Within the past hour: McCarthy not backing down from speaker bid after heated meeting with GOP: 'I'm not going anywhere'

China will open pandora's box in 3 weeks.