China, Socionomics, Politics, technical Analysis and more...
Join Twetch for censorship resistant social media powered by Bitcoin...Take Me To The Charts
One useful figure for analysts is China's living space per capita. Surveys in most cities suggest the average living space is between 28 and 30 square meters per person. We don't know which population segment these surveys cover; they certainly don't include migrant workers. And we don't know if empty flats are counted.
Based on this limited data, however, we can confidently conclude that China does not have a housing shortage. Moreover, its per-capita living space is higher than in Europe and Japan. Indeed, if we adopt Japan's standard, China already has sufficient urban housing space for every man, woman and child in the country.
Far more important than general data, however, are the housing figures pointing to a huge quantity of empty flats apparently being held only for speculation. In a normal market, the vacancy rate should be equal to the number of households relocating, times the average transition period, plus newly formed households times the average purchase period. For example, a vacancy rate of 1.5 percent could accommodate a market in which 6 percent of households relocate every year, and the transit time is three months. If new household formation is 3 percent and the average period for a property purchase is six months, this factor requires a vacancy rate of another 1.5 percent. The total normal vacancy rate should be 3 percent. This figure includes the new properties ready for sale.
Although the government doesn't publish vacancy data, I think the vacancy rate for the nation's private, commercial housing stock is between 25 and 30 percent. That's at least double what's required in a normal market. The gap between what's needed and what's available can be viewed as speculative inventory. The value of this inventory held by speculators is probably around 15 percent of GDP. It's being kept on ice just as copper and other commodities are hoarded in anticipation of rising prices.
No comments:
Post a Comment