Director of the Research Center for City and Competitiveness, Housing Green Paper editor Ni Pengfei said that this year the housing market will show a trend of double differentiation: First- and second-tier cities will see differentiation from third- fouth-tier cities, second-tier cities demand is strong, inventory consumed quickly, adjustment time is short; third- and four-tier cities have weak demand, supply consumed more slowly, the adjustment time is longer. Secondly, the short-term adjustment and long-term adjustment of differentiation. From the current situation, the possibility of short-term adjustment still exists, and long-term adjustment will take a very long time. In the state of double differentiation adjustment difficult to get out of recession trend, showing a weak overall performance. However, some second-tier cities, especially in first-tier cities and rebound adjustment is possible to achieve in 2015.
Across 54 cities, sales hit 318,000 homes in December, the highest monthly total for the year. First-tier cities had sales of 53,700, a mom gain of 38%. However, while sales were up strongly, some cities didn't see a material improvement in their inventory due to new properties coming to market.
This is mostly the same story as at the end of 2014: prices are still headed lower in 2015, but the first tier and top of the second-tier could bottom first and even rebound in 2015. Other cities will remain in a downtrend, with some second-tier cities possibly adjusting faster than their third- and fourth-tier counterparts that may be headed for a multi-year adjustment (aka bear market).
iFeng: 报告:2015限购或全面退出 房价软着陆为主
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