Bear case: the Fed's balance sheet caused three rallies in 2009, 2011, and 2012 with the launch of QE1, QE2 and QE3. Every end of QE (March 2010, June 2011, October 2014) resulted in a stock market correction. The only period that did not was the rally from the election of Donald Trump in November 2016 until the most recent peak in January 2018. The Fed's balance sheet did not rise over this period. However, the Federal Reserve bumped its asset sales up up $20 billion a month from Jan-Mar and since then the market has tracked changes in the balance sheet again. The run-up in stocks was a result of the Fed "doing nothing." Now that it is reducing the balance sheet, the impact on stocks will be negative.
波士顿中国留学生因骚扰民主活动人士被判入狱
-
4月24日,来自中国的前伯克利音乐学院学生吴啸雷被美国法院判处九个月监禁。法院要求吴啸雷6月7日前往指定的监禁 […]...
No comments:
Post a Comment