Systematic Fraud and Corruption in Land Sales Threatens Economy

The word epic is overused these days, but it may apply in the case of China's local government land sale abuses. With the audit underway, information is starting to leak out as developers and government officials start talking. The scale of the problem is still unknown, but there's reason to be concerned by the numerous ways local governments have rigged land sales and inflated prices. It is not an exaggeration to say that if the examples listed in the Chinese article below are not isolated cases, then even the most bearish forecast for the Chinese economy is far too optimistic.

During the housing bubble, Chinese media often reported on a local "land king," a developer who paid an extraordinarily high price at a government land auction. Now we know why they were willing to pay sometimes seemingly absurd prices: the government was kicking back up to 80% of the total amount paid. Governments had already chosen the developer and fixed the price for the land, including signed contracts, with the auction a mere show for the public. If the auction price went above the contract price, the government would return the developer's money, plus interest.

Besides fixing a land sale before the auction, governments also reimbursed developers for development costs such as roads, sewers, and improvements. Land prices rose very quickly because once developer costs were included in the land sale price, developers starting running up costs, for example turning a ¥100 million project into ¥500 million. Then if the land auction went for ¥1 billion, the developer would only have to pay ¥500 million for the land, with the other half reimbursed. This helps explain why land sales totaled ¥130 billion in 2001, but last year, land sales totaled more than ¥4 trillion, an increase of 30 times. The total sales over this decade plus comes to nearly ¥20 trillion.

Governments also forced their state-owned enterprises to join in land auctions once the market cooled, in a process that was in essence moving money from one pocket into the other. As was previously reported, this also worked in reverse as governments sometimes used proceeds from land sales to prop up their SOEs. Other times they told developers to stay away and transferred land to SOEs at cost.

Aside from the corruption involved, the worst aspect of this is the distorted market signals sent by high land prices. This adds a new layer the bear case because prices were not only elevated to unsustainable levels by the credit bubble, but went beyond into truly artificial territory. There's also the land finance aspect: governments have trillions of yuan in loans from banks backed by land sale revenue, but did governments report the gross or net revenue to banks? This issue alone could severely impair bank's ability to lend if governments have been overstating their land sale revenue to banks.

What most worrisome is that the audit prior to the current strict audit found 95% of the provinces surveyed had evidence of corruption in land sales. A single case is evidence, so we can't guess the scale of the problem, but there is no good news coming. The "good" news will be the problem is indeed isolated and costs limited. The bad news will be the real estate crisis you thought existed is really far worse than imagined.

地方政府为保地价返还出让金 出让环节成腐败高发区
Core Tip: Behind 20 trillion land transfer audit storm, hidden local governments and developers ineffable secrets. Enterprise has been able to withstand the high land to the king, because after nearly 50 percent of the total available land returned. This not only leads to frequent the king, disguised push high prices , but also the breeding ground for huge rent-seeking space.

Behind 20 trillion land transfer audit storm, hidden local governments and developers ineffable secrets.

"Some enterprises are able to withstand the high land to the king, because after nearly 50 percent of the total available land be returned if plots involving shantytowns, premium refund amount up to more than 80 percent." Shenzhen Golden Eagle Real Estate Marketing Director Lin Xiaohua said that some companies may encounter some time to get to the restrictive barriers, including supporting hotels, large commercial, etc., the government will give financial subsidies or refund part of the land transfer.

Hunan Provincial Association of Realtors chief economist Wang Gao told the "China Times" reporter, some directed to sell the land, in essence, already locked developers, "the auction link, you can always shoot down until photographed so far, anyway, than the two sides agreed prices and spend more money, and finally the government will be returned to the developer. "

This land transfer and then return the model, not only lead to frequent the king, disguised push up prices, but also leads to a lot of places in the land auction and a mere formality, and the breeding of a huge rent-seeking space.

Private return part transfer

"I personally signed this contract, that is, before the auction, the agreement stipulates that if the auction price exceeds the contract, the Government shall own with interest returned to the developer." Housing prices listed Shenzhen Investment and Development of a department official told reporters By way of return of land transfer, reducing the cost of developers get the government to earn more investment and employment, as well as banks carrying water.

MLR data show that the national land transfer price of 129.6 billion yuan from 2001, to more than four trillion yuan last year for the first time, 13 years, an increase over 30 times, the cumulative total of nearly 20 trillion yuan.

"This land transfer 20 trillion yuan artificially high ingredient actually exists." Person of Shenzhen Investment and Development Department Housing prices listed above said.

He further said that after the transfer if it is directed, the starting price of land at public sale, often determined by the government to seek the views of developers, and specific matters relating to the transfer price of the return of a supplemental agreement entered into by the parties. Developers of the land supply, the investment cost of electricity, sewage, gas pipeline network and other municipal utilities and roads, the government returned to the developer.

"Auction of land designated by the Government shall require all into account, down the account, and then to the other on behalf of the government returned to us." The Investment and Development Department, told reporters that the mainstream approach is by doing high-level developers to pre-development costs , then the land shall be deducted, in this way for developers and government are safe.

"Early land preparation and demolition, building schools or roads to help the government, if in fact, spent 100 million yuan, you can do bigger and engineering costs as high as 500 million yuan, after the auction by the government on behalf of these infrastructure 500 million yuan returned to the developer if the land sold 1 billion yuan, 500 million yuan developers only pay the difference. "The investment and development department sources said, the return of land and there is no strict procedure, costs just get made The Government agreed to, if the program must publicity, by the Government to find a company to do the high assessment to assess the price.

Director of a listed Strategic Housing prices Yangtze River Delta region, told reporters, in some newly developed local district government in order to attract large-scale investment in housing prices, but also set up many projects, such as Green Building Award, Innovation Award and Environmental Design Award, etc. , in the form of bonuses disguised subsidies for housing prices.

"Some single award recognizes not by much, it will issue multiple awards, sometimes spiritual civilization will award all placed in the names, but there are also some projects, an award is basically to cover the cost of Kin." Housing prices above long Strategic Triangle Regional Director explained that his company in a three-city project cast, won the local government issued a Green Building Pilot multiple awards, sold per one square meter can get 1800-3000 yuan in subsidies.

Yangtze River Delta city in a financial department told reporters, because of a similar subsidy agreement requires governments and developers, but also cooperate with each other in the actual financial docking, such as housing prices need to land a one-time paid money, and the return of subsidies can be arrived land shall, therefore housing prices due to the large state-owned auditing stronger, more favored by the local government.

"If the local government simply give the land concessions, it is difficult to raise land prices, because developers in return for cost accounting and there is not much difference between the estimates, so the local housing prices need to be able to behold with an auction and behind The series of work. "Housing prices above director.

Easy formality auction

This land transfer return mode, resulting in a lot of land auction procedures mere formality.

"One time, we want to shoot long samet chihu zone, but the local government greet us and told us not to shoot, and finally by the Department of Finance, a subsidiary of state-owned enterprises competing in a zero premium." Changsha, a developer told reporters.

"When the market cooled, the government will come forward to take to prop up the state-owned enterprises, shoot high premium, in fact, down the right hand or left hand, superficial, not much really get our hands on government land revenue, earned just flowing financial bank card only . "Housing prices above Shenzhen Investment and Development Ministry sources, sometimes by the local government will take high ground, and afterwards returned to the developer's mode pulled region premium.

According to Wang high understood that this situation often occurs in a substantial land around the city, the government hopes the big developers to promote regional development, tend to land none other investment [ Introduction News ], such as a large public housing prices in Guangzhou last year in Changsha Liuyang shot of a piece of land is the "virtual shoot."

Under the current practice, the land transfer fee, paid in addition to superior financial part, entirely responsible for the use of the remaining expenditure by local government, land department has no right to intervene. Since the land transfer revenue management in a blank state law, there is no clear legal provisions, there is no corresponding constraint, always drifted away from public scrutiny. In addition to accepting some modest efforts to audit, most of the "closed operation."

Wang Gao said, the land is not included in the budget revenues, the report submitted to the National People's Congress place during the annual "two sessions", and does not include land transfer. Lack of supervision, resulting in transfer of benefits uncommon phenomenon.

"Auction will be two cases, one is taken away by other developers, the other is their win. Situation arises if the premium is too high, such as conventions 1 billion yuan, sold 2 billion yuan, maybe we do not, let other housing prices shot away, the extra one billion yuan, we divided with the government, but this happens rarely. "These investments Development Ministry sources said.

Wang told reporters that high, due to the developers before the auction only paid the deposit, the extra land premium payment is not required, simply change the contract privately again. "Anyway, how much financial fetched, and no one checked, simply press the contract money to finance."

"This approach has more than a decade, has been very common, land transfer link is a high incidence of corruption." Housing prices listed above Shenzhen Investment and Development department official said, "have gifts for officials in charge of the specific size of the project and see the amount of profit If the developers earn a million to send out for a twenty million does not matter. "


UKIP Still Rising

A major defection to UKIP shows the party's ascent hasn't peaked.

Douglas Carswell's defection to Ukip is a seismic shock to the British political system
This is why I believe that Mr Carswell’s decision to quit the Tory party and join Nigel Farage’s Ukip is a seismic political event. He cannot be compared to the ordinary self-interested political defections, for instance Shaun Woodward or Quentin Davies’ departure from the Conservatives to New Labour, in 2001 and 2007 respectively. Mr Carswell, and this is completely terrifying for David Cameron, is acting out of conviction rather than self-interest. It is greatly to the credit of Mr Carswell that, in striking contrast to Woodward or Davies, he has called a by-election to fight his Essex constituency, where he may even stand a chance of success. If he wins, he will have broken every known rule of politics. It has always been assumed that the individual vote which an incumbent MP can attract is a fraction of that commanded by the party which he represents. If Mr Carswell carries Clacton, a political convulsion will have taken place.

Outside Audit Lowers Hunan Trust Collateral From ¥1.4 Billion To ¥0.5 Billion

Doubtful that Hunan Trust is the only firm overstating its assets.......

湖南信托公告曝光 抵押估值降为5亿
Recently, because of China Chen future information management project breach into the vortex of public opinion Hunan Trust, in August 26 issued a second announcement.

Although the announcement said, will actively promote substantial risk treatment projects, but Hunan Trust said that after the assessment of collateral that the collateral valuation at 500 million yuan or more, which also means that the valuation of Hunan Trust's announcement to overthrow its value due diligence reports provided $ 1.4 billion said. In this regard, the "Daily Economic News" reporter contacted Hunan Trust, Hunan Trust, said all the announcement, did not respond.

In addition, the "Daily Economic News" reporter learned from investors, investor Hunan Trust has proposed a new solution.

Investors said the realizable collateral doubts

August 14, Hunan Trust issued on Huachen future information management projects first announcement, Hunan Trust claimed that he was just the channel side of the project and put all the responsibility to collect only 0.2 percent of state trust management side, to distance themselves from their responsibilities .

After the first announcement, has been questioned many investors and the media. In the August 26 release of the second announcement, Hunan Trust attitude changed, no longer mention channels.

Investors Lu on the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said, "China and Hunan Trust Chen future contracts is that they took their company's seal, went Guoyuan Trust sign, and this point is to overthrow the Hunan Trust said he is the channel argument. "

The second announcement mentioned Hunan Trust said it commissioned a professional evaluation agency collateral items were carefully evaluated, considered a conservative valuation of collateral in 500 million yuan or more.

However, due diligence reports, Hunan Trust's assessment of the collateral value of 14 billion yuan, which means the overthrow of Hunan Trust own due diligence to assess the report.

"This shows the authenticity of Hunan Trust due diligence investigation report, the valuation of their own due diligence investigation report will be overturned on notice." Zhang said investors "Daily Economic News" reporter.

In the second announcement, Hunan Trust also raised realized on the disposal of collateral issues. In this regard, Mr. Lu told reporters, "I personally went to Longyan seen that piece of land, the land surrounding the project is not completed on schedule is not developed, and according to local Longyan upset, Hunan Trust to 500 million yuan if the price of disposal So no one is willing to take the disk, so the idea of ​​Hunan Trust provided the current situation is difficult to achieve. "

Hunan Trust propose new solutions

Reporters learned that the person in charge of a surname Yang in Hunan Trust to investors, Mr. Zhang's phone, providing a new idea, the first payment of interest, then a rigid payment.

Zhang on the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said Yang Hunan Trust proposed by several financial institutions involved in the management fee to withdraw, investors have to pay interest due, "After solving the interest of investors , give them 10 months to deal with collateral and restructuring, to achieve the realization of collateral. "

In addition, Yang Zhang Hunan Trust also said, "If the 10-month period can not be resolved, it would give them two months to complete if we can not, then let five financial institutions share a commitment by any financial institutions to launch a collection of trust, let a single disk access Trust Trust this collection before, to achieve a rigid honor. "

According to the reporter, Hunan Trust and another four are actively in talks, "mainly Hua Chen future have to agree, but this too requires Hua Chen Hua Chen future major shareholders to agree to the trust, otherwise rely solely on the strength of future Hua Chen can not be achieved. "Zhang told reporters.

Hunan Trust for proposed solutions, Mr. Zhang told reporters that "the program can still talk, but this time we can not accept investors, time is too long, we can not afford."

In addition, Zhang also told reporters that the first is that the five financial institutions should recognize their responsibilities, but they are not publicly acknowledged, so the idea to implement some distance, "Of course, if you make that several Hunan Trust financial institutions to accept this solution, we do not oppose, but the time is not too long, the purpose of our investors is to get their principal and interest due as soon as possible. "

The proposed new program Hunan Trust, Trust insiders Huang Yong on the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said, "At present, the Trust rigid single payment no precedent, Hua Chen future information management project is now a single trust, investors require Hunan Trust conducted Rigid cashing difficult to implement, but the establishment of a collection of Hunan Trust provides trust, then the rigid payment is feasible, of course, this requires the consent of Hunan Trust four other financial institutions. "

Hundreds of Billions Expected to Flow From Property Market to Stock Market

Stocks are much cheaper than property and now that the property market is cooling, pension funds and other investors are changing their outlooks on the two asset classes. This is going to be a major turn in market sentiment, but it has barely even begun.

千亿资金弃房炒股 社保基金青睐10股
Property investment property or weakening of billions fought in the stock market

July A shares open a wave of rising prices , accompanied by trading volume increase. Compared with the stock market getting warmer, the property market is still hovering in the downturn. Real estate development and investment growth continued to fall, real estate sales also continue to decline.

According to Reporters survey found, with the weakening of the real estate investment properties, including developers, part of the funds, including the brewing of hot money into the stock market. According to industry estimates, the size of funds to evacuate the property market will reach one hundred billion yuan. In economic stabilization, such as Shanghai and Hong Kong through the expected start, driven by incremental funding will have a certain impact on the stock market.

Property funds brewing approach

Cui is a small city in the south, chairman of developer, recently invited to participate in a large-scale real estate investment promotion. Unlike in the past, this time the developers attending the heat was cool.

"Golden period property has been coming to an end, the future is not without investment opportunities, but real estate will become very difficult to earn money, success or failure depends on investment perspective." In the real estate industry for many years of Cui, hold the hands of a city located in Hebei real estate projects, despite the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and support, but Cui still figuring out how "abandoned house ashore."

"Real estate assets after all heavy industry, and years of silence capital markets, but it has clear signs of recovery. Around my friends have started mobilizing funds fought in the stock market, according to a reporter," real estate circles of friends recently took a few pieces of land to Guangdong do financing, and called several projects are more likely to enter into A shares. "

Due to the current real estate market suffered regulation, housing prices in the business environment is becoming increasingly difficult. From real estate projects take place, planning, approval and then to start construction, are facing more challenges. Coupled with the slowdown in the flow of capital, many small and medium housing prices is difficult to keep up with the follow-up project, and then brewing the new investment.

"I have two projects currently in the hands of one into the sales cycle, project planning after another waiting for approval to start construction." Cui said that in addition to project the necessary working capital, he has begun to transfer funds to batches owned investment company, waiting waiting A large market shares.

"It's not a secret in the circle, not to say that companies began to stocks , nor that developers want to give up the main industry, but finding the right to invest funds for the account tummy. "It is a real estate insiders told reporters, currently a domestic Large developers are planning to ten billion yuan of funds to the brokerage of financial , designated A-share market to invest. "If the A-share market prices over the next year, the developers certainly do not want to miss the opportunity to make money." The person with respect.

Just some developers brewing to put money into the stock market, under the background of market regulation, some social funds removed hot money began to enter the market, according to the reporter found visited the part of the brokerage business department, many of the "big" has already started to pay attention signs the property market funds . For A-shares since July rally, these stocks "veteran" who have their own opinions, in addition to the macro- expected improvement in the external, foreign Zengcang market, the central enterprises to reform the subject of speculation and other factors, the property market funds also mentioned a lot of people.

"Recently I have learned into the market looking for a lot of people do, but really throw the house to stocks of small, basically idle funds, but now come before going to real estate stocks." In Beijing Financial Street in the vicinity of a brokerage business department, A share has ten years of age, "big" told reporters that the property market in mutual funds already in the flow, especially in some companies and private equity funds, there are many active before the real estate market, it is now part into the stock market.

Some brokerage business department account manager also told the reporter that the recent slight increase in the number of new accounts over the previous total account customers also increased. Chinese settlement data show that 7 A shares since the end of the growing number of new accounts, to August 15 a week, more than 150,000 of new accounts size has a new high of nearly 20 weeks since. This means that the OTC market is accelerating the pace of investors.

Real estate investment properties decreased

China's real estate market through ten years of " golden age when, "in the past, even in the event of market volatility or inflationary pressures, increasing the value still showing characteristics. It is easy for investors to generate buy a house "makes money" idea. However, with the deepening of the current regulation of real estate, property investment property has been significantly weakened.

Market participants pointed out that the current property market structure is changing, investment buyers demand is gradually exit the market, in order to improve the type of the first set and the demand for housing has become the main market players. After the investment property fade, "speculation" funds in capital driven by profit-driven nature will flow to other values, "depression", while the A shares is to choose one.

"The current stock market is much lower than the extent of the property bubble, there is some upside, but stock market lower threshold than property investment easier to attract capital into the sidelines." An unnamed brokerage analysts believe that although very Difficult specific estimates of hot money out of the property market in the figures, but it would be great magnitude, could reach hundreds of billions of scale. "Although we can not say that these funds will be fully into the stock market, but there will be some impact on the market." The analyst bluntly.

In fact, once familiar scene staged in 2010. At the beginning of 2010, the State Council issued the "National 11", differentiated credit policy implementation requires increased efforts to rectify the real estate market. In April it announced resolutely curb housing prices in some cities "ten countries." September to consolidate the results of market regulation measures "five countries" were introduced, clearly stated on the price too high, soaring, supply the city, to limit the purchase of copy number of households within a certain time. Soon after, differentiated credit policy and related tax policies have been introduced.

Policy of gradual tightening in the property market background, the second half of 2010 the real estate market correction, the continuous decline in national housing climate index, 70 cities real estate price index also appears decline. Correspondingly, the stock market in the second half of 2010 had a rebound, and once stood above 3,000 points, picked up new accounts and the market showing signs of incremental funding. That time, including gold companies, including a number of brokerage firms have released a report, originally expected active in the field of real estate funds will flow to other areas, the size of funds at least 500 billion yuan or more.

"There are a number of different situations, and in 2010 when now live." Above brokerage analysts said, although the property market in 2010 after the encounter policy control, some speculation capital outflows. But then the global economic downturn, the domestic macro-economic growth continues to decline, the stock market does not have the upside momentum. However, the current global economy gradually stabilized, accelerating the transformation of economic structure, the market is expected to shift taking place.

"This year, this wave of market stock funds rely more stimulating venue, once a certain gains, may be a correction, which also created the conditions for a new funding approach. Crucial next step is to take the cattle A-share funds willingness approach , whether diversion of funds from the property, or industrial capital into the fund, the focus is whether the volume continues to expand, and into the incremental funding will further activation of the Chinese capital market. "above analyst bluntly.

Market expectations feed into key

Historically, when ample liquidity, generally a positive correlation between the stock and property markets, but in the present, "a wall of a sparse," the special period, the two began to show the shift in the relationship. Insiders pointed out that investors' expectations of future stock and property markets will be capital flows, the key is located.

Under the dual role of macro-control and regulation of real estate, the value of real estate investment began to fall, home demand gradually become the main support of the market. Although there are many cities added to the ranks of purchase of the policy of deregulation, but from the point of view of the industry in general, "to house" trend of China's economic growth has not changed.

UBS released report shows that in 2013 the amount of housing construction was significantly higher than that of Chinese urbanization and update improves the birth of housing demand. Falling house prices, the future of real estate tax and the rise of new investment channels will continue to curb investment demand, which means that the next few years, real estate supply must be adjusted to a lower "new normal." UBS analysts believe that although the credit weakness in July, the real economy rebound suspended, but external demand is expected to continue to improve, continue moderately loose policy will help economic growth in the next two months to keep healthy.

At the same time, continuing a steady partial easing of liquidity is also expected to allow the market to worry about the financial side weakened. Shanghai and Hong Kong in particular, through the advance of the blue-chip underestimate the value of A shares continue upward played a role.

According to a major bank executives revealed that the current funding from the bank pulled probably follow two paths, one intended to switch to the A-share market, waiting for investment opportunities in the A-share market. Another part of the funds have fled Hong Kong signs. "On the one hand, Hong Kong stocks listed company dividends and other higher returns, on the other hand also waiting to see China's economic situation. "the source said.

It is understood, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the promotion of a positive result in the accumulation of a large number of overseas capital market in Hong Kong. There are agencies estimated that nearly two months, a total of 16 full launch in Hong Kong 65 billion Hong Kong dollars to hedge against the dollar . Overseas funds are not currently convertible into yuan, mainly purchased RQFII and ETF, but does not rule with the Hong Kong and Shanghai through approaching, overseas funds to enter the mainland market, become part of the A-share market incremental funding.

Who is the Next Developer to Collapse?

Chinese media once again refute those who claim the Western media is too negative on China.

No specific answer to the question of which developer will collapse in this long article covering the cooling market, falling sales, shrinking cash levels at developers, debate over the need for a bailout, etc., only a general argument that more developers are going to go bankrupt given current trends.


That headline translates to: Property Market Winter: Who is the next developer to collapse? (Link goes to Google Translated version)

一举两得: Relief for Local Govt Also Boost Financial Sector

The reforms of Xi and Li have a problem. On the one hand, they must constrain local governments' ability to interfere in the market, including falling back on the "easy" growth model of infrastructure development. On the other hand, there's going to be a serious debt crisis if the property market slows and cities can't borrow. Solution: cut financing costs.

China's local governments can swap out of pricey debt: FinMin
In a speech in parliament about China's fiscal system, Lou said China will control the amount of money borrowed by its regional governments by ensuring that all their debt is accounted for in their budgets.

Regional governments, responsible for the bulk of China's public spending but getting less than their share of total fiscal income compared to the central government, have relied on borrowing heavily in recent years to stay viable.

To ease the financing pressure, Lou said governments that are stuck with expensive debt can replace them with cheaper municipal bonds - subject to approvals - to lower their interest payments. No further details were given.

The comments on muni bonds comes as the government launches the strict land sale and land finance audit. It is not a coincidence. Allowing local governments to lower their debt financing costs is a very pragmatic reform that deals with the crisis threat, but doesn't let local governments off the hook.

This reform plan also kills many birds with one stone. The local governments can swap their debt, but will still be restrained by large debt levels. It creates a new market for savings to compete with shadow banks. It helps develop internal financial markets and importantly, deeper bond markets that will be necessary for a freely convertible yuan.

Power is being taken away from local governments and transferred to the financial markets. This was the reform template of Zhu Rongji in the early 2000s, but his plans were thwarted when insiders took power in 2005. One of his goals then was to open the A-share market to foreigners. That will finally happen less than two months from now. The SOE reforms underway are also a blow to local governments ability to dominate the market. This isn't news.

Back in November 2013, Li Keqiang was telling governments to get out of the economy:
China Premier Li Keqiang said local governments should stop directly investing in or setting up companies “in principle,” according to comments released a day before leaders gather to discuss economic policy.

Allowing local authorities to invest in companies or to intervene in their operations can ‘easily’’ lead to monopolies and market barriers, Li was cited as saying at a Nov. 1 meeting, according to a statement posted on the central government’s website today.

Or Li reminding them this year:
At one meeting, on May 30, Li reportedly pounded the table as he blasted local officials for inertia in carrying out central government directives.

He accused departments of micromanaging the economy and wasting time and resources examining and approving projects and deals that were entirely commercial matters unrelated to national security or strategic industries.

Everything from the audits, anti-corruption campaign and anti-monopoly campaign to tight credit, financial market and SOE reforms, are all aimed at the same goal of a market economy. With the opening of the oil market, launching of the international gold market, growth of the muni bond market and opening of the stock market, the China of 2020 is slowly coming into focus. The short-term remains precarious, but long-term the outlook is steadily improving.