2017-09-19

Beijing Banks Raise Mortgage Interest to 20pc Premium

iFeng: 央行北京营管部:支持北京房贷利率调整
According to Securities Daily informed that since September 14, a number of banks in Beijing the first suite of lending rates continue to rise, after the adjustment, the first suite of mortgage interest rates go up 5% to 10% into the mainstream, while individual banks adjusted to the lowest performing reference interest rates go up 20% of the interest rate policy, there are more outlets of individual banks first suite collective "pause orders."

"Securities Daily" quoted the news that the number of real estate agent, has been notified of two state-owned big firms, September 14 started the first suite of 5% of the lowest floating interest rate policy; at the same time, the implementation of individual banks adjusted to the lowest benchmark interest rates go up 20% of the interest rate policy; as well as the first suite of individual banks to suspend orders.

New Home Prices Rise 0.2pc in August

Although prices rose in 46 cities last month, the number of cities seeing price declines jumped to 18 as the average increased fell to 0.2 percent. Existing home prices increased 0.3 percent, with 54 cities seeing rising prices.

Recent months still saw large single month prices increases, but that wasn't the case in August. Guilin and Harbin saw the largest increase in new and existing home prices respectively, both rising 1.1 percent.

2017-09-18

Everything is Destroyed, Even the Dreams: Huobi, OKCoin Executives Told to Stay in Beijing

iFeng: 火币网、OKCoin负责人、高管被要求不得离京
A number of informed sources, the current Bitcoin trading platform each person in charge, and so not to leave Beijing executives to cooperate with the investigation. In accordance with regulatory requirements, the trading platform for shareholders, actual controllers, executives, such as chief financial officer during the cleanup exit to fully cooperate with relevant work in Beijing.

The industry believes that, with the two virtual currency trading platform shut down all operations, is expected to Bitcoin prices will fall. However, now with the basic out to do bad, investor sentiment being stable, Bitcoin stabilize prices for the time being. As of press time yesterday, reporters, Bitcoin prices declined slightly, quoted near 19,000 yuan.

2017-09-17

Why Did Real Estate Stocks Skyrocket in the Past 6 Months?

An article in iFeng asks why real estate stocks skyrocketed: 地产股为何半年内普遍疯涨三到五倍?答案令人震惊
So the question is: In the past six months is the period of the country continue to tighten regulation of the property market, the property market is gradually cooling. Now, the regulation has been extended to the northeast and western regions, in which case, why real estate stocks also so cattle?

A few examples from the article:
Two days ago, our team of "Financial Powerhouse (ID: tttmoney8)" by National Bureau of Statistics has just released analysis of the current dangerous situation facing the housing market. In a nutshell - due to the inventory moving very quickly, the current average digestion cycle of new housing is only three months or so; overall, the average real estate digestion period (including office buildings, commercial property) is only over five months a. But the "office" and "commercial space business" is still very long period of digestion, were 10.6 months and 18.4 months.

In other words, residential developers to continue re-stocking phase (of course, there is still excess partial).

But this is far from the real estate reason leading shares rose.

The core reason is the rapid rise in land prices, so that value of the large land banks rose significantly.

...A large international investment bank for this housing prices made an estimate, this time scored above the land of housing prices is to spend 458 billion yuan, but now the value has risen to 9,000 billion yuan. In other words, this intrinsic value of housing prices rose by 450 billion yuan, but its total current market value of only 300 billion yuan (RMB) or so.

Do not think the developers have significant "cover" behavior, in my observation, this is a fast development, rapid sales characterized by housing prices, the products are mostly for just need to improve the type of demand, rarely engage in particularly high real estate. However, the past couple of years land prices rising too fast, so reserve value of the land it has quickly doubled!

And that is an important reason for the stock price soaring ward rate.

2017-09-15

TSF Credit Growth Up 21.5pc YoY

Too soon to say if growth peaked in July at 24.3 percent, but it may have given the crackdown on shadow lending. If both TSF and M2 decelerate together, credit growth contraction in China will finally begin in earnest.

China's Reserve Coverage of M2 Slips to 12.4pc

The yuan is rising, but there's no fundamental pressure pushing the yuan up. It is solely dollar weakness. Chinese FX reserves are down to 12.4 percent of M2. This number does not matter to the markets and it may never matter if the fundamentals reverse, but we're getting within striking distance of 10 percent.

The Chinese government cracked down on overseas acquisitions, requires paperwork for foreign currency transactions over $147 and told multinationals not to take their money home for a reason, and it isn't because the yuan is fundamentally strong. The yuan was more useful three years ago.

M2 Slows to New Low in August

M2 growth slowed to 8.9 percent over the past 12 months, but 3-month annualized growth ticked up to 11.3 percent. The latter number is 2.8 percentage points below the August 2016 pace.

M2 historically slows sharply in September and October.

2017-09-14

What A Steel: Chinese Production at New High in August

China Daily: China, US recognize that steel overcapacity requires global solution
Meanwhile, the Chinese delegation told the US side that China had actively taken measures to cut steel overcapacity, Zhu said, citing China's plans to reduce steel capacity by 100 million to 150 million metric tons from 2016 to 2020.

Bloomberg: China’s Steel Mills Run at Full Tilt as Output Hits New Peak
Crude steel output climbed to 74.59 million metric tons last month, surpassing the previous peak of 74.02 million in July, and up from 68.57 million in August 2016, according to the statistics bureau Thursday. While that’s an all-time high for the month, daily output was less than the record in June. Production surged 5.6 percent to 566.4 million tons in the first eight months, also a record.
Extrapolate the August 2017 increase from August 2016, and you get 72 million tons of increased production. Year to date, production is up 30 million tons.

By the time China cuts 100 million tons of production, it will be back to late 2016 levels.

Tariffs are coming.