China real estate dominates the economy: official
About 60% of China's manufacturing and financing activities are related to the property sector, China's state media quoted a senior government economist as saying Monday.
China property chart du jour (yes, another one)
[Soc Gen] In summary, we think that real estate investment growth will continue to trend lower, likely to the level of 5% yoy (from 12.5% in June), a level last seen during the 2009 downturn. The IMF once estimated that a 1% decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1% off China’s real GDP within the first year. And so a 7.5ppt deceleration in real estate investment growth would drag down GDP growth by about 0.75ppt.That is more optimistic than the Shenyin Wanguo analyst who predicted GDP would slip to 6.6% growth if real estate investment fell below 14% in 2014. A 0.75% deceleration in GDP growth stemming from a 7.5% drop in real estate investment is on the optimistic.
聂梅生：楼市最低迷时期已过 (Nie Meisheng: The real estate bottom has passed) Nie Meisheng is the founder of the China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce. She sees prices stabilizing here. If she's right, that is good news for China's real estate sector and the economy. There's some evidence for that in still solid sales figures in some areas, and the national figure did begin ticking up in June (third chart below).
Now for some data from the NBS: June real estate investment figures. These are cumulative, yoy growth rates.