2017-04-28

North Korea Rhetoric and Reality

The South Korean stock market looks like it is about to explode to the upside. It made a new closing high in April. The intraday high from 2011 is 2231.47. A 1 percent gain will take out that high. EWY is also near its all-time high, showing that the advance in the KOSPI is not due to currency devaluation.

If any market should be nervous about a war on the Korean Peninsula, it would be the South Korean stock market. Seoul is within range of North Korean artillery. As the economic, cultural and population center of South Korea, it is a prime target for a North Korean attack. Even if South Korea wins a total victory in a war, Seoul could still suffer substantial damage. The South Koreans do not appear worried though.

2017-04-27

Bank Credit for RE Development "Frozen"

iFeng: 银行全线收紧开发贷 房地产融资迎“冰封”时刻
"In recent years, various banks have received intensive checks from the regulatory authorities, and in the field of credit risk, the development of loans is the focus of the inspection." The banking industry told China Securities Journal reporter that the regulatory authorities on the bank financial management funds into the real estate also found special tight. China Banking Regulatory Commission recently issued a document on the banking risk prevention and control, and carry out a series of special rectification, real estate risk has become the focus of investigation areas. A number of banks on the public credit business executives said that the current development of the loan business is not stagnant, but the overall contraction of the momentum is quite clear.

...A number of local banking regulators said that as a local banking regulatory authorities, for some national banks to issue financial products, the underlying assets can not be completely "penetrate", many funds through financial management, management products "around the" Real estate, this year this will be the focus of regulatory investigation.

...People close to the central bank of China Securities Journal reporter said that the proportion of real estate loans will become the central bank to assess MPA one of the important parameters.

...Of course, the bank on the development of loans is not completely "blocked", but to follow the national policy-oriented, there is pressure. Bank of Communications, a local branch, said: "The current policy for the development of credit control is very tight, but for the protection of housing is still strongly supported in the first quarter of our branch of the real estate loans are basically used in the protection of housing projects." CBRC latest statistics show , As of the end of March, affordable housing project loan balance of 3.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 52.2%, an increase of 339.2 billion yuan over the beginning, up by 31.3 billion yuan.

PPI About to Go Negative

The increase in the Chinese PPI has been decelerating in 2017, but in the first twenty days of April steel prices are down 8 to 12 percent. With oil prices slipping at the end of April, the year-on-year boost from energy will also be gone.
EO: 经济上行、钢价下跌,PPI来到了岔路口?

20 days ago, from the Qian'an in Hebei cargo owner Zhang hesitated two months later, and finally the hand of 1,000 tons of iron ore powder sold out. That time, iron ore powder price is 860 yuan per ton. 20 days of time, the price has dropped to 600 yuan per ton. If not shot in time, he will directly lose 260,000 yuan.

...At this point, the news from the East Coast is that China's iron ore stocks at ports is 130 million tons. In fact, in early March, China's iron ore port inventory already reached the figure, while China's imports of iron ore were 95.56 million tons.

...At present, the prevailing view of the market is that changes in supply and demand have led to a reversal of prices. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 17, the national crude steel, pig iron and steel production in March were 72 million tons, 62 million tons and 96.76 million tons, up 1.8 percent year on year, up 1.3 percent and 0.7 percent respectively; Among them, the average daily production of crude steel reached 232.26 million tons, an increase of 6.42%, a record high. The first quarter of this year, China's crude steel production was 201.1 million tons, an increase of 4.6%.

LA Residents Sense Tension

ZH: Poll Reveals Los Angeles Residents Fear Major Riots Are On The Horizon
For the first time since the riots, there is an uptick in the number of Angelenos who fear that another civil disturbance is likely, according to a Loyola Marymount University poll that has been surveying Los Angeles residents every five years since the 1992 disturbances.

Nearly 6 out of 10 Angelenos think another riot is likely in the next five years, increasing for the first time after two decades of steady decline. That’s higher than in any year except for 1997, the first year the survey was conducted, and more than a 10-point jump compared with the 2012 survey.
The piece ends with a nod towards social mood:
There’s something to be said for the idea that there’s a collective unconscious. When that many people feel that violent civil unrest is a real possibility, one should take notice. These people know what their city is capable of, so I can’t help but fear that their concerns are justified.

Minsheng Fake WMP Invested in Real Estate, Jewelry, Relics

The Minsheng fake WMP won't exceed the 3 billion yuan headline figure and Minsheng currently says the amount is 1.65 billion yuan.
iFeng: 民生银行:假理财涉案16.5亿 部分资金投向房产文物
In today's Minsheng Bank 2017 first quarter investor exchange meeting, Minsheng Bank Vice President Shi Jie introduced the bank Beijing Bay Bridge branch case related situation. According to its disclosure, as of now, by the Minsheng Bank Working Group by the client with the registration and verification, involving the amount of about 1.65 billion yuan , the initial estimate of the amount involved will not exceed the number reported by the media , involving about 150 customers, in addition to Zhang Ying, Another individual branch staff is receiving a public security investigation. Prior to the media coverage of the amount involved to 3 billion.

According to the Minsheng Bank disclosure, according to the current preliminary grasp of the clues, the case of Zhang Ying by controlling other accounts as a capital account, fabricated false investment and financial products and financial transfer products, their own or instruct the individual employees to find the target customers, illegal recruitment Customer funds for personal control, part of the investment for real estate, cultural relics, jewelry and other fields, the funds raised did not enter the Minsheng Bank account system.

Wreck Your Credit and No House For You!

Beijing residents who wreck their credit (including social credit) could lose the right to buy a home, as well as be airline and high-speed tickets, among other measures.

iFeng: 北京出台信用奖惩实施意见 严重失信将限制买房
Beijing Municipal Government recently introduced "on the establishment of a sound credit joint rewards and punishments to speed up the implementation of the views of the implementation of good faith" (hereinafter referred to as "opinions"), the performance of the capacity but refused to perform a serious disqualification of the main implementation of restrictions on exit, purchase of real estate, , Take high-level train and seats and other measures. People 's governments at all levels and civil servants in the course of their duties, due to illegal, dishonesty by judicial decision, administrative punishment, disciplinary action, accountability and other information will be included in the government lost record.

"Opinions" proposed that the people 's governments at all levels and civil servants in the course of their duties, due to illegal, breach of contract by judicial decision, administrative punishment, disciplinary action, accountability and other information into the government lost the record. Increase the government and civil servants at all levels of dishonesty and exposure to the intensity, and constantly improve the integrity of the performance and integrity of the executive level, to the integrity of government to lead the integrity of society.

Motivation for integrity will be strengthened, including administrative, market and social incentives. "Opinions" pointed out that the integrity of the typical and three consecutive years without bad credit records of the administrative counterparts, according to the actual situation of the implementation of "green channel" and "capacity acceptance" and other convenient service measures. Support the relevant departments and units to develop "tax easy to loan", "letter-loan", "letter-debt" and other trustworthy products, so that the trustworthy access to more opportunities and benefits.

Ren Zeping: Buying Restrictions Through First Half of 2018

Caijing: 任泽平:预计本轮房价上涨近尾声 调整到2018上半年
Hot cities will increase limits on home purchases and home loans, the CBRC is strictly prohibited mortgage inflows into the real estate sector, we expect this round of housing price rises is near the end, may be adjusted to the first half of 2018. Long-term population to the metropolitan area inflow trend unchanged, medium-sized metropolitan area land supply is not ideal, short-term financial tightening, so the future real estate adjustment is mainly short-term adjustment.

2017-04-26

March Was the Top: Beijing Home Sellers Cutting Prices as Sales Plummet

One Beijing real estate broker has seen transactions fall 70 percent in the wake of the March 17 buying restrictions.

iFeng: 部分一线城市二手房卖方主动降价 成交量大减
Here is the Chaoyang District, Beijing real estate registration business center. In Beijing, every one of the four existing home sales is completed here. According to the annual total of about 270,000 sets of existing housing, existing housing transactions to measure it, last year, where the volume of transactions in the 70000 or so (269223 * 0.26 = 69998).

This means: here every day there are 270 sets of existing-homes complete the transfer transaction. In the most hot market transactions, where people are coming and going every day, bustling, bustling. But we have also entered the hall which has seen a significant decline in traffic has been.

Trading floor near the residents: trading volume fell a lot, and last year and the first half (March) than the decline too much.

An intermediary store official told reporters: their stores cover the surrounding three district, a total of about 7000 sets of housing. Since March 17, they have only signed five sets, of which there were three sales negotiated before the 317 policy.

Lianjia real estate chief marketing officer Song Qi: 317 after the New Deal, the Beijing chain of single trading volume, probably less than 1,000 sets, and that before the New Deal compared to it, in fact, down 73%.
Prices are also coming down, from a peak of 5.3 to 5.35 million down to 5.2 million. The city of Beijing is also recording a drop in sales:
Beijing Municipal Construction Committee data: April first half (April 1 - April 15), Beijing existing housing a total of 8096 sets signed, compared with the second half of March fell 51.4%, year-on-year from April 2016 fell 37.4% in the first half.
Industry insiders say the home price increase in March was an echo effect from February:
In the reporter's survey, we can easily find: existing housing turnover has been a significant decline, many sellers have begun to take the initiative to cut prices, but according to the National Bureau of Statistics released last week, 70 cities in the price data: Beijing home prices rose 2.2%. What is the reason for this? Future existing housing transaction price trend will be how?

In this regard, the industry said: Due to the existence of time lag, the March house price data is mainly reflected in February since the actual transaction reached. March 17 since the vast majority of market transactions will be reflected in the transaction data since April.