2016-04-29

The Precious Accelerate


Acting Man: Silver is on Fire
How much higher can the price of silver go? One talk show host appealed to the “silver faithful” with a promise of a price to skyrocket to levels even they will find “stunning”. Our response is to point to the basis (blue line). Note that we switched from May to July.

If gold is showing some signs of abundance, silver is practically lying about in the market landscape. To carry silver for July delivery yields an annualized profit of over 1.1%. The flow of metal into the carry trade must be a torrent. If anything occurs that will stun the silver faithful, it will be the epic drop in the silver price. This will be decried as a smash-down.
I remained heavily overweight the precious metals these past few years despite deflation expectations, mainly because I expect gold would remonetize amid deflation. It's also a good hedge though: even if I'm completely wrong on commodities, I will make money thanks to holdings in the precious.

Slope: Gold Breaks Out Again

The moves look extended, but the U.S. Dollar Index is right at the low of its trading range today. The dollar will likely decide whether commodities and precious metals correct or rally further.


How Long Until the Borders Close? Belgians Issued Iodine Pills

Telegraph: All Belgian residents issued with iodine tablets to protect against radiation
The entire population of Belgium is to be issued with a ration of iodine tablets, months after warnings about the threat of Isil building a dirty bomb.

...It emerged following last month’s terrorist attacks that an Isil cell may have been plotting to kidnap a nuclear expert in order to build a “dirty bomb”. Eleven nuclear workers had their passes revoked.

People's Daily Responds to U.S. Steel Charges

An article in the People's Dails asks, "what kind of market economics is this?" in regards to U.S. anti-China steel tariffs.
April 28 Ministry spokesman Zheng Lixin to a question on China's steel industry, said the Chinese steel industry capacity utilization and the world average is consistent, steel overcapacity is not unique to China, the world needs a common response. In particular, he stressed that the current Chinese steel mainly for domestic consumption, itself remains the world's fifth largest steel importer, and has been carried out under the WTO trade rules. China not only does not encourage exports of steel products, and is the world's largest producer of steel in the country a unique initiative to take restrictive measures against ordinary steel exports.

International Economy and Trade Department of Economics, Peking University Professor Wang Yuesheng, in an interview with this reporter said, similar to the "337 investigation" of trade protectionism has long been common in recent years, from the differences between the parties to the business interests of its essence, but different during the performance level, in the form of different.

"Accusing the presence of 'price-fixing', 'false labels' and other Chinese steel trade issues, said its rigorous basis itself is not clear enough. For example, the United States does not recognize China's market economy status, it will' default 'government and business relationship' is not normal ', which led to the true costs of steel products in China for its determination is too low." said Wang Yuesheng, such "beggar thy neighbor" thinking of the business is likely to lead to counter-measures business partners, or even a trade war. Especially in the sensitive period fragile world economy, trade war would lead to a lose-lose, is not conducive to long-term interests of most people.
The U.S. is among the nations least reliant on trade and it has a huge trade deficit. Leaving aside the zero sum game of global power, the U.S. is among the nations that will be least affected by a trade war.
It is worth mentioning that the trade-protectionist does "more harm than good", the Chinese officials not only did not heavily subsidized steel companies , but the steel industry "reduce overcapacity" is the main battlefield in pursuit of economic transformation and upgrading. For example, recently the central bank and other four ministries published an updated opinion on requirements: the steel and coal industry long-term losses, loss of liquidity and market competitiveness of enterprises, must be resolutely quit compression related loans. Related departments should take the initiative to track local governments and the central enterprises to solve the steel, coal embodiment surplus production capacity, early response possible risks.
Yet steel production rises because local governments do not listen to Chinese officials.
Seclusion is not a way out, there is openness and cooperation in the future. The United States as a typical immigrant country, open and inclusive values, mutual win-win spirit of the contract are the achievements of its economic strength and great power status of important spiritual core. By contrast, in the face of the demands of the interests of minority groups in the industry, if lazy, Flurry big stick of trade protectionism, it will undoubtedly make these excellent market economy and free trade tradition into disrepute.

In fact, the trade protectionism in the United States is also unpopular. US Microsoft founder Bill Gates said, whether it is software, aircraft, or pharmacy, movies, US is the biggest beneficiary of economic globalization, any impediments to international trade moves to the United States are unfavorable. A US study wisdom Kubidesen Institute for International Economics also show that in 2009 the United States had taken a Chinese tire tariffs up to 35%, which led to US consumers within the next few years have to pay $ 1.1 billion for the purchase of additional tires, In fact this is only to protect Americans 1200 jobs.

"For the United States, despite its own to take care of business interests is understandable, but in the face of disagreement or should strengthen communication and consultation with trading partners, and should not be taken frequently blunt, forced sanctions. To China, we also to continue to deepen reform, further rationalize the relationship between government and the market, improve corporate governance, try not to give any excuse for protectionists. further, in the medium and long term we should also further enhance the gold content technology and core competitiveness of Chinese products.

People's Daily: 打压中国钢铁是哪门子市场经济

2016-04-28

Westpac Shuts Out Chinese Borrowers

Sky News:Westpac enforces non-resident borrowers ban
Westpac has announced it has stopped lending money to foreign property investors.

First home buyers are being given a crack at entering the property market, after the major lender announced it was banning non-resident borrowers.

Westpac are following in the footsteps of Commonwealth Bank, who last week declared they would no longer accept mortgage applications from non-Australian residents.
They are doing this due to the risk involved, but the news played up the nationalism angle. Mood is shifting...

Govt Orders End of Commodities Speculation

Reuters: China securities regulator orders major commodities exchanges to control futures speculation - sources
China's securities regulator ordered the country's major commodity futures exchanges this week to control speculative trading activity, sources told Reuters, after a surge in prices sparked fears of a boom-and-bust cycle.

In response, commodity futures exchanges in Dalian, Shanghai and Zhengzhou ordered major institutional investors that lack a commodities background to rein in their trading, three people with direct knowledge of the situation said. The sources didn't define what was meant by a lack of background in commodities.
Volume has fallen. Prices initially dipped and rebounded, but if volume stays down, prices will follow.

China's National Team Owns 6 pc of Stock Market

China is 60 percent Japanese. (See: The Bank Of Japan Is Now A Top 10 Holder In 90% Of Japanese Stocks)

Stats: 549 billion shares across 1433 firms worth 2.74 trillion yuan. This is 6.11 percent of total market capitalization on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, more than half of the companies listed.

About 73 percent is held in bank shares:
Distribution by industry, "national team" funds most emphasis on banks, non-bank financial sector, architectural and medical biological, holding a market value of 2 trillion yuan, respectively, 165.714 billion yuan, 63.676 billion yuan and 45.306 billion yuan, accounting for "national team" 73.12% of the total market value of shares, 6.04%, 2.32% and 1.65%. In other words, "national team" of the banking sector accounted for the most heavily loaded positions total 70 percent above.

Wallstcn: 国家队最新持仓曝光:持有市值2.74万亿 持仓七成为银行股

760 Billion Yuan in Coal Debts Come Due

Hexun: 煤炭金属矿业将到期7600亿债权 违约或集中爆发
Bloomberg data show that in coal and metals and mining industries with excess production capacity of these two companies this year 2-4 quarter cumulative maturity scale over 760 billion yuan, recording the highest increase of 34% over last year, compared with same period in 2014 more than doubled. Maturity bonds in the entire bond market this year will also climb to a high, from the beginning of this quarter will face a maximum high for three consecutive quarters, the total will reach 4.12 trillion yuan, up 23% over last year.

Haitong Securities ( 600837 , stock it ) has said Jiang Chao, frequent credit default push up credit spreads, corporate financing costs easy or hard to drop. Increasing the risk of default by the new companies will push the cost of the old, or cause disruption to refinance, and may even form a "risk of default increases - Refinancing blocked - economic downturn - further increasing the risk of default," the vicious circle.

He also said the analysis, low-rated bonds due for repayment amount start to rise sharply from the fourth quarter of 2015, but it is also since then, a series of events of default Shanshui Cement continue to impact the market nerves. The low-rated bonds due amount is still in an upward trend, and the third quarter of 2016 reached a peak . With the large capacity due to the propulsion and low-rated bonds are expected to emerge more events of default, default will show normalized.

Various types of bond holding financial institutions recently focused on dumping bonds as soon as possible to avoid debt default, to avoid "stepping on a mine."

Loan Loss Reserves Fall Below Regulatory Red Line, Some Banks Assume Cut to 120 pc

Shanghai Daily: ICBC’s bad-loan ratio worsens
THE bad-loan buffer of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China fell below the regulatory minimum, highlighting debt issues again in Chinese banks.

ICBC’s coverage for bad loans stood at 141.21 percent of the current 204.66 billion yuan (US$31.6 billion) of non-performing loans by March, the world’s largest bank by assets said in a statement to Hong Kong’s stock exchange yesterday. The provisions breached the current regulatory minimum of 150 percent for the first time since it listed.
The government is expected to ease requirements on banks this year, and the iFeng article below claims some banks are assuming the regulatory minimum may drop t0 120%.

iFeng: 国有大行拨备覆盖率跌破红线!为利润让道?

Bank of China announced on the 26th of a quarterly reporting period, the NPL coverage ratio was 149.07 percent. 28, ICBC a quarterly show, the first-quarter provision coverage ratio was 141.21 percent, are less than the CBRC had set 150% of the regulatory red line.

...Caixin has reported that at the end of March, the difference in regulatory thinking, seven listed banks will be dynamically adjusted provision coverage ratio fell to 130% -140% range. China Banking Regulatory Commission said that the measures are still being studied.

● Agricultural Bank (601288.SH, 1288.HK), China Construction Bank (601939.SH, 0939.HK), China's banking provision coverage may be reduced to 130%;

● Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Communications (601328.SH, 3328.HK), China Merchants Bank (600036.SH, 3968.HK), Industrial Bank provision coverage may be reduced to 140%;

● CITIC Bank (601998.SH, 0998.HK), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Everbright Bank, Minsheng Bank ( 600016.SH, 1988.HK), Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank [ 0.99% funds research report ] will keep 150% of the official requirements remain unchanged.

As early as February of this year, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with news on condition of anonymity, the State Department is considering lowering the bank bad debt provision coverage. China Banking Regulatory Commission has not yet determined the specific details. Two informed sources, some large banks assume 120% coverage in 2016 when budgeting.
WSJ: Big China Banks Relax on Liquidity to Do More Lending
Banks continued to lower their cash buffer for bad loans, as they have done steadily in recent years. But for the first time the level fell below the minimum of 150% of their bad loans, which the government requires the banks to maintain to safeguard their ability to weather losses.

Steel Trade War Is Glimpse of Future: Great Political Changes Underway

EU must take tough stance in steel dispute with China - German economy minister
"What is really at stake in the EU is whether we have the courage to take an aggressive position against China," Gabriel said in the German Bundestag lower house of parliament, adding that he would be in favour of taking such a stance.
The U.S. is getting aggressive: U.S. Steel accuses China of stealing trade secrets
Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel said regulators should remove "all unfairly traded Chinese steel products" from the U.S. market, claiming the Chinese firms illegally conspired to fix prices, stole trade secrets and circumvented trade duties by using false labels.

"We have said that we will use every tool available to fight for fair trade," U.S. Steel CEO Mario Longhi said in a statement.
An article in iFeng reads: China's Steel Overcapacity Words Do Not Match Actions, US-EU Furious
iFeng: 中国钢铁去产能“言行不一” 现在欧美怒了
Chinese Ministry of Commerce website shows that this complaint is for China Hebei Iron and Steel Group Corporation, Shanghai Baosteel Group Corporation and other Chinese steelmakers about 40 carbon steel and alloy steel product exports to the US. United Steelworkers of America expressed support for the US Steel action.
A big dispute between the US and EU is over China's market status. The EU wants to designate China as a market economy, while the U.S. opposes the move. Tariffs on steel are much harder to impose if China gains market economy status, which is why this battle comes at an inopportune time for China.
In addition, the EU will decide in December whether to grant China market economy status, and now the steel issue a "handle" by the United States and the European Union grabbed hold. Under the terms of "China's WTO accession protocol," after December 11, 2016, against China's anti-dumping "surrogate country" approach will lose multilateral legal basis, Members shall immediately stop using the "surrogate country" approach. This way, the Western countries an important opportunity to recognize China's market economy status.

If China successfully obtain this status, then think about Europe on Chinese goods if anti-dumping duties, it becomes increasingly difficult. Many EU member states and then worry if the grant China market economy status, with the lifting of the EU anti-dumping measures, the relevant European industry and employment will be subject to further shocks.
The Chinese response is laughable:
For China steel dumping, the Chinese side had explained that the Chinese government attaches great importance to overcapacity, has taken positive steps over the past three years reduced the more than 9,000 tons of steel production capacity, the future will again Yajian crude steel production capacity of 1 on the basis of to 1.5 million tons.
This is like U.S. government accounting, propose a big spending increase, then call it a cut when the increase is reduced. Steel production hit a record in March. There are no cuts in production because China's capacity utilization is so low, it could still increase production amid mill closings.

The iFeng article admits the Chinese actions haven't matched the leadership's words:
February 4, the State Council published "on the iron and steel industry to resolve the overcapacity views the development of a turnaround," he pointed out from the beginning of 2016, within 5 years reduce steel production capacity by 100 million to 150 million tons. Recently, according to media reports, accounting for about 27% of the total capacity of Hebei Iron and Steel announced plans to phase out 100 million tons of production capacity in the next five years. Jiangsu has put forward, by the end of 2018, 12.55 million tons of steel production capacity Yajian. Plus Guizhou, Liaoning and other provinces, the local and national goals over 100 million to 1.5 million tons. There insider said, on the one hand officials would like to take over the fight performance, on the other hand in order to win more central resettlement funds and preferential policies.

However, the truth is that many Chinese steel mills have resumed production. According to "21st Century Business Herald" message, shut down for five months Songjeong Tangshan Iron and Steel Plant has been re-ignited. In addition, the recent days Rail Group, Tangshan Port and other steel production fully restored, Shanxi Haixin also plans to resume production by the end of April early May. It's expected China's average daily steel output in April will be a record high. Earlier, Reuters quoted Macquarie analyst Ian Roper said last year China closed 50 million -60 million tons production capacity, and has now resumed production of more than 40 million tons.
As with other failed reform efforts, this looks like another case of the local governments ignoring central mandates:
In fact, steel prices are a lot of local economic "lifeline", when the performance evaluation of the performance of the "key", in addition also involves local employment stability. Therefore, many local governments unanimous choice is, even if it is "zombie companies", but also with local finance its "continued life."
Finally, U.S. steel tariffs are working, cutting Chinese imports in half in April.

Steel Industry Executive Summary: April 2016 (PDF)
To give you an idea about why this is all about China, here's monthly production through February. Chinese production spiked back to 70 million tons in March and as mentioned above, is expected to go higher in April.
The U.S. industry's steel report shows the U.S. doesn't have the biggest complaint with China. That would be Vietnam, Thailand, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Italy.
In conclusion, the case for countervailing duties is clear. China is by far the largest steel producer and due to its own sclerotic economic policies, increased production by 15 percent since 2013. Now it says the world must share the burden of overproduction, but China can't even make it's own local governments shut down local production. Meanwhile, the rest of the world wants China to absorb all of its own self-inflicted losses. The political climate has changed and I would bet on Donald Trump winning the presidency at this moment, but even if Clinton wins, the U.S. will at least side with the steel makers on this narrow issue. Tariffs are having positive effects in the U.S. Everything is working in favor of a protectionist U.S. policy on steel, which will very likely be replicated across other industries with the implementation of a national economic policy under a President Trump. With a President Clinton, there is likely no change in the free trade orthodoxy and both TPP and TPIP will pass, despite what she says during the campaign. (One reason why I expect Trump will win is that voters will want the sure thing in November on trade.)

Trump has created the coalition I predicted in The Logic of Strategy: Yuan Devaluation and the Road to Trade War
The protectionists are ever so slowly gaining the upper hand thanks in part to negative social mood. 2008-2009 will probably mark the peak moment for Wall Street and the Treasury Department, even though there is as yet no sign of it in Washington. Changes can be seen in the form of issues such as immigration, which has turned the grassroots of the conservative movement against the Chamber of Commerce and large corporations (due to an attack initiated by the latter against the former). This has pushed the Overton window of acceptable debate among conservatives who can now take shots at big business. There is also the growing libertarian faction pulled together by Ron Paul that supports his son, Rand Paul, that consistently attacks the Federal Reserve and Wall Street. Put it together and it is not hard to envision an anti-Wall Street, pro-manufacturing political consensus emerging. This will cut across party lines, with manufacturing unions pulling in Democratic support if there are specific bills to vote on.
This is crystallized in Trump's foreign policy speech, when he said, "We will no longer surrender this country, or its people, to the false song of globalism."

Trade Conflict Inevitable

One way or another, China will see the terms of trade changed and it will not be in China's favor. The best way for China to strengthen its position without any negative diplomatic effects: slash overproduction. If China doesn't cut production, it will hold the weak hand because it will bear the entire brunt of a trade war.

As touched upon in The Logic of Strategy: Yuan Devaluation and the Road to Trade War, once trade is subordinated to national security, once free trade orthodoxy is removed and trade becomes negotiable, you will rapidly see a coalition of business, foreign policy, military and security interests which will emerge to support a new trade policy. Countries such as Vietnam will likely jump on board with a policy to slow China's economic growth, and thus its military spending and ability to project power into the South China Sea. If China understood even a hint of what may be coming, they would be rolling tanks into the steel mills.

The Bigger Political Shift

Very few people predicted the rise of Trump, but I laid it out back in 2014. (Immigration Issue Set to Explode in America; Prepare for Political Volatility) Once he rose, experts didn't think he could win. Now the same people think Trump won't win in November. I expect he will win an electoral college landslide because major changes are underway as negative social mood has finally found its political agenda.

I explained the political shift here: Political Revolution Comes to America Via Immigration Issue. Way back in 2013 I wrote: Rise of the New American Right Leaking Into Mainstream; What is Neoreaction? and this week, it finally made the NYTimes in The Reactionary Mind, the first in a series of articles by Ross Douthat.

Trump isn't connected to neoreaction (since it dislikes democracy and populism), but the forces that have pushed neoreaction to the fore are similar to the forces propelling Trump to the White House. This is a giant wave with many unrelated parts and it only makes sense if you are looking at the macro scale. The conservative movement that arose in response to the communist threat amid the Cold War, is dying. As in Europe, socialism was seen as an acceptable compromise if it meant stopping communism, but now that communism is gone and the old Clash of Civilizationsis back, the table is being reset. There's a lot going on: neoreactionaries are attacking the heart of modern Western ideology, nationalists have secured power in Hungary and Poland, with nationalist parties rising across Europe, identity politics is replacing ideological battles in the mainstream political debate, and there are focused attacks on institutions such as the current war within the GOP. While some of these groups are literally at odds with each other, they all share in the current socionomic zeitgeist. Until social mood bottoms and turns higher once more, these trends will remain in place. Should they secure meaningful victories, they may also reshape politics, culture and society for generations.

Urbanize This: Migrant Worker Population Ages, Growth Slows, Low Wages

NBS has a report on China's migrant population: 2015年农民工监测调查报告.

Slowing migrant population growth

Most migrant population growth is from locals

Age breakdown, with China's aging demographics clearly visible.

The a geographic breakdown. Non-local migrants are those heading to other cities in their province or to other provinces.

Industry Breakdown

Average time spent working

Average wages

Workers are earning an average of 3000 yuan per month and they have living costs of about 1500 yuan per month. Of that, about 500 yuan per month is rent, so at most they have 2000 yuan per month in disposable income, assuming they don't have any other expenses, such as a family back home.

The problem of low wages is driven home by an article which argues Chinese home prices need to fall to levels seen 10 years ago if migrants are to afford them. It uses Tangshan as an example, where home prices have fallen to levels seen a decade earlier, yet homes still do not sell:
According to media reports, three years ago, the central area of ​​residential transactions fold to touch 9,000 yuan / square meter, per capita GDP ranking first in Hebei Province Tangshan City. Due to continuous years of stagnation, the average price of three years ago sold for 7,000 yuan / square meter of the project, now majority or the price. In 2007, housing prices in Tangshan will reach 7,000 yuan / square meter. 2008 is in the property market downturn, the urban average price was dropped to 5,000 yuan / square meter.

That is, Tangshan prices, have fallen to levels from 10 years ago. Even so, according to the Tangshan local industry say, as of now such sales pace, completely digest the current inventory Tangshan market, will certainly be more than 10 years. Although the name of the industry to the inventory, may be "out" too thorough a little. After all, any city can not supply and demand appear completely on the other, exactly the same, there is no gap phenomenon. However, leaving the 3-year inventory, but also more than seven years. The Tangshan, Hebei is one of the most economically developed regions, if Tangshan destocking time to be more than 7 years, what about in in other regions of Hebei, the other third- and fourth-cities around the country?
It goes on to note that migrants can't afford homes, but to allow a fall in prices will anger the current owners:
Right now, the call center around the need to focus on shantytowns. It should be said that this is more reliable than the migrant workers into the city to a stock method. The core of the problem, and still is the issue price. In other words, the current prices, whether with slum upgrading district matches, monetary compensation squatters, and whether affordable housing stock, is a big problem. If at this time the Government can give some support in terms of policy, so that developers can make some concessions, so the housing prices at a reasonable level, the stock is likely to go to produce a more active role. Especially developers to price, should the losses that may arise in the future is calculated, such as inventory and then three years, the number of financial and operating costs will increase, thus bringing profit to those fans who should also be a promotional tool A destocking mode. The government in the relevant tax aspects, some support to the buyers, it is possible from the psychological and confidence of buyers produce effective actuation.

Overall, according to the third and fourth tier cities the current situation, prices dropped only 10 years ago, will have the effect of de-stocking, will it be possible to activate the fan enthusiasm of residents, on the contrary, the difficulty will be quite large.

iFeng: 去库存就得房价降到10年前 这事靠谱吗

Mounting Unpaid Bills

FT: Unpaid bills add to China debt problems as receivables mount
Listed companies had to wait a median 70 days to receive payment last year, the longest delay in 14 years, as cash flows tightened amid slack final demand. That compares with a median 60 days in 2014 and 46 days in 2011, according to Wind Information, a Chinese financial database.

Ms Yu says that an increasing share of customers now insist on paying with a bankers’ acceptance rather than cash. Similar to a postdated cheque, bankers acceptances are a kind of IOU from a company and its bank. Ms Xu says that a few years ago, 5 to 10 per cent of her sales were paid this way, but that has now risen to 20 to 30 per cent. Most cannot be cashed for 90 or 180 days.

Nor does the problem end with Ms Yu. “We have no choice but to pass the delays upstream [to our suppliers],” she says.
That 70 days is higher than any year this century except for 2000, when it reached 110 days.

Evergrande Getting Bigger, But Is It Too Big Too Fail

There is an ad for Verizon mobile service in the U.S. with a technician walking all over asking: "can you hear me now?" I imagine after each deal Evergrande makes, it places a call to Beijing and asks: "am I too big to fail now?"

Bloomberg: Evergrande Pays 10 Billion Yuan to Lift Shengjing Bank Stake
Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. has agreed to buy Shengjing Bank Co. China-traded shares worth 10 billion yuan ($1.54 billion), extending a shopping spree by the Chinese developer facing mounting debt.

...The firm has become the most indebted of 198 listed Chinese real estate developers, Bloomberg-compiled data show. There is a 6.2 percent probability it will miss payments in the next 12 months, up from 1 percent a year ago...

Steel Mills Reopening

AFR: China re-opens steel production 10 times greater than Australia
Research house MySteel estimates around 50 million tonnes of Chinese capacity has been re-started this year, the equivalent of 41 blast furnaces with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes.

The restarted capacity is more than 10 times Australia's total production and accounts for most of the 60 million tonnes China shut in 2015.

The closures were part of government efforts to modernise the sector, reduce air pollution and cut over-capacity.

"The market is so good why would steel mills not re-open?" said Xu Xiangchun, the chief information officer at MySteel via phone.

...Stockbroking firm Everbright Securities estimates the average Chinese steel mill is now making a profit of 400 yuan per tonne of steel produced, the highest level since 2008.

2016-04-27

Commodities Trading Volume Collapses


ZH: Chinese Commodity Trading Volume Crashes: "Most Don't Even Know What They Are Trading"

Shenzhen Cools: Registry No Longer Crowded, Listed Prices Drop

Beijing homebuyers were paying several thousand yuan this year to cut in line at the property registry: Frantic Flippers Cause Reservation Number Prices to Double in March, a phenomena that was repeated in other cities (to varying degrees based on local regulations governing the process). Shenzhen was also crowded as home buyers flooded the registry, but now there are no crowds. Additionally, one real estate agency says 70% of listings have fallen in price.

iFeng: 新政满月楼市观望居多 二手房七成下调报价
As the property market hot observe the most intuitive place, city real estate registration center has been playing the market "barometer" of the role. Reporters multiple days in the city center real estate registration office paper outlets found that, although use "deserted" to describe, but to apply for transfer mortgage business significantly reduced, compared with last year when the property market hot crowded situation, now people come to do the transfer don't need to squeeze in.

...In the second-hand housing market, according to the Shenzhen Centaline monitoring the property market after landing the New Deal, the secondary market basically just need customer satisfaction, the Central Plains Bacheng managers bearish market outlook 70% of owners lower asking price, short-term lack of strength in raising prices. Last week, most of the area still offer down. Luohu West offer down 3.4%, white sand ridge zone offer cumulative decline of 10.5%. In addition, some area offer has continued to decline in a few weeks. As Nantou Area has eight weeks down, the cumulative decline of 23.7%; Shekou area seven weeks down, the cumulative decline of 15.5%; building the Great Wall area for four weeks lowered offer, is down 21.3%; Longhua center for four weeks lowered , the cumulative drop of 10.4%; Futian central Area 3 consecutive weeks down, quotes fallen 8.5%.