2014-10-28

More Signs of Slowdown in Today's Paper

Light posting this week due to travel, but I came across a few stories in today's paper worth mentioning.

In Guangzhou, license plates are auctioned. This month the number of people bidding declined and was actually below the number of license plates available. The average transaction price fell 7.5% from the month before and the rate of decline is increasing. Average prices are back to end of 2013 levels. According to the article, the drop in demand is related to a gov't law restricting out of town license plates. When the law was proposed and announced, auction prices jumped, but now that the law could hit between now and 2017, prices have come down. Or it's the economy...

Zhangjiakou Online: 广州车牌拍卖再遇冷 10月申请人少于车牌数

Next, An article on mortgage discounts in Guangzhou. The accompanying chart shows the number of discounts has ticked up, but less than 20% of banks are offering them.

21st CBH: 广州房贷利率调查:6家有优惠 5家附条件

Bonus item: I didn't snap a picture, but there's a big billboard here in Guangzhou from a developer whose offering the chance to win an iPhone 6 if you look at some properties.


The third story: Chinese media are also starting to report the slowing industrial production in local economies that I covered in Liaoning Sounds Warning on Chinese Economy. Industrial production in Beijing, Hebei, Hainan, Zhejiang and Guangzhou has ticked up, but in Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and others places, there's a slowdown.

The differentiation is occurring within the local economy as well because it is due to certain industries. Large scale industries in Shanghai grew only 4.9% in the first three quarters, down from 6.3% in the first half (growth was only 0.5% in August and 1.3% in September). In contrast cumulative growth in Guangdong has ticked up by 0.1 percentage points in each quarter and Zheijiang has ticked up 0.2 percentage points in each quarter.

Here's a Google translated bit from the article:
21st Century Business Herald was informed that some of the slowdown in the coastal provinces, mainly in the past about the traditional pillar industries affected. For example, the first three quarters of the industrial slowdown in Shanghai, garments, crude oil processing volume, ethylene, cement, steel, household refrigerators, micro-computer-related production slowdown. January-September output growth in these industries was -2.2%; -12.4%; -13.2%; -12.8%; 0%; -3.1%; -13.3%.

Tianjin's industrial growth slowed down, but also with crude oil processing volume, ethylene production slowdown related. Liaoning's industrial slowdown, and metallurgy, petrochemical, coking and other heavy industry slowdown related.

Hainan Industrial accelerated industrial growth in the country and even in September the first, and the slowdown in the development of many of these provinces, petrochemical and other heavy industries concerned.

The argument for a smooth transition and soft landing for China is that it can rebalance away from investment and exports to a larger domestic and service economy, supported by industries such as advanced engineering and manufacturing, aerospace, financial services, consumer sectors, etc. at least as fast as the other sectors contract. The risk is that growth isn't fast enough in the emerging industries, which is a problem when there is an existing credit bubble and an inefficient credit allocation system, in addition to the risk that external shocks impact the credit bubble. China is unlikely to get any help from emerging economies that rely on Chinese growth going forward, while developed economies seem more likely to hurt at this point. If the U.S. dollar is following a long-term pattern, 2015 will see a big U.S. dollar rally that will pull the yuan higher at exactly the worst moment. Meanwhile, the evidence from Liaoning shows the domestic economy may already be in trouble.

Confusing the issue is China's reform efforts. Everything that is happening may be a very fortuitous rebalancing effort, or this all might be the business cycle at work. If the former, all the bears are going to be burned once more in their expectations of a crash (though I still believe Pettis' slowdown scenario will be in play). If the latter, then the whole world is in for a world of hurt as the business cycle comes back to China, Austrian-style.

2014-10-27

Liaoning Sounds Warning on Chinese Economy

Although China's slowing real estate market draws the most attention, industrial sectors such as steel have been hit hard. Suffering from overcapacity and now a slowdown in demand, the sector led the slowdown in real estate. There is a feedback loop for some areas of the country, where the production of raw materials for real estate development fuel the local economy, which is also has its own real estate bubble. The result is rapidly slowing growth that could be a harbinger for the wider economy.

The data shows that real estate investment is plunging in the heart of China's industrial economy. The slowdown in real estate is happening nationally, with investment growth figures sliding in most provinces, but the three northeastern provinces are doing the heavy work of pulling down the national figure. One province among them is doing most of the work: Liaoning is the fourth largest province in terms of real estate investment, with 6.5% of the national total in September. The other two provinces, Heilongjiang and Jilin, are both over 1% of total investment. The other provinces in the top 5 of total investment are, in order, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong. Here's the real estate investment growth figure for each administrative region in China. This is the year-to-date cumulative growth figure (data from China's National Bureau of Statistics).


Real estate investment in the province of Liaoning hasn't slowed gradually, it has collapsed.

The yoy cumulative growth rate nationally was 12.5% as in the list above. The yoy national growth rate for the month of September alone was 8.6%. For Liaoning, it was negative 41%.

Investment numbers are volatile for many provinces, but the large provinces tend to see much more stable growth figures. Here's Liaoning along with the other 4 top provinces for real estate investment, again the cumulative growth rates. Looking at the trend in growth, Jiangsu hasn't slowed at all and Zhejiang (home to Wenzhou, Ningbo, Hangzhou and a few other bubble cities) is holding up amazingly well, only seeing a drop in growth earlier in the year when the national real estate slowdown started there. Guangdong has slowed a few percentage points, but not enough to take down the national growth rate.

What is going on in Liaoning? Here's a description of Liaoning's economy:
Leading industries include petrochemicals, metallurgy, electronics telecommunications, and machinery.[28] On a national level, Liaoning is a major producer of pig iron, steel and metal-cutting machine tools, all of whose production rank among the top three in the nation. Liaoning is one of the most important raw materials production bases in China. Industries such as mining, quarrying, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, petroleum and natural gas extraction, are all of great significance.

Iron ore prices have been falling all year due to the slowdown in Chinese demand and steel producers are dumping their product on the world market.

As of September, Liaoning's capital, Shenyang, has seen prices fall 3.8% from last year, which makes it one of the largest yoy price drops in the country. Inventory figures fluctuate based on monthly sales, but earlier this year, inventory was estimated at over 30 months in Shenyang. This story posted earlier this year (with many photos) is also very relevant: In Yingkou, Liaoning Unfinished Buildings Stretch For 50 Square Kilometers; Real Estate Graveyard.

Liaoning is not alone in seeing real estate investment growth collapse. The real estate slowdown is happening nationally except for a few outliers, and several cities have seen similar drops in their growth rates. Comparing the September 2014 real estate investment growth rate to September 2013, Liaoning leads with a drop of 34.3 percentage points (see chart below), but 15 provinces have seen declines of more than 10 percentage points and very few have seen increases.

Liaoning relies heavily on the real estate industry too, in part because the rest of its economy grew slower than the real estate sector. 中国大陆哪些省份最依赖地产投资? (Which Chinese Provinces Rely Most on Real Estate Investment?)

Good News or Bad?

If you're an optimist, the slowdown in raw materials is a regional economic factor that is weighing on the northeastern economies. Liaoning has the worst of both worlds: the real estate sector is slowing along with the rest of the economy and this directly impacts the basic industries that proliferate in Liaoning's economy.

If you're a pessimist, the commodities sector is a higher stage of production, more sensitive to changes in the economy and a leading signal for future growth, in which case Liaoning is sending a big warning signal. Industrial production fell below 10% in 2012, but it slowed gradually the the ensuing years, down to 8.2% in July. It also had been keeping pace with the national growth rate. In the past two months, growth collapsed and Liaoning's industrial production contracted by 1.6% in September.

The national growth rate is red in this chart, Liaoning blue.

Investment and Production Drive the Economy

Here's the he Hayekian Triangle.

The triangle gives a good depiction of how the seemingly smaller sectors of the economy that take place at the earlier stages of production can have a big effect on the economy. Imagine the far left of the triangle growing taller and then expanding outwards as the goods move through the economy. GDP mostly measures the last (rightmost) parts of the triangle because that's where the final sales occur. (One big reason to favor gross output over gross domestic product is because it measures these intermediate stage transactions.)

Liaoning is not China's largest provincial economy, though it isn't small either. Liaoning was 4.76% of national GDP last year, 7th largest. The argument here isn't that Liaoning will affect China's national economy by sheer size, rather that it is the canary in the coal mine. Liaoning has more industries in the left side China's triangle. As these sectors stagnate or contract, this contraction propagates through the economy over time. Real estate investment by itself also takes place at an earlier stage in the economy.

The Economy's Tripwire

Liaoning is more exposed to the higher stages of production and therefore is one of the provinces most likely to experience a slowdown first assuming a normal contraction phase of a credit cycle. We know steel and other industrial sectors have overcapacity. Problems in steel surfaced in late 2011, but wider economic growth was not impacted until very recently, following a steady deterioration in the market for more than 2 years and then a slowdown in real estate as well.

Liaoning's slowdown could be a false signal, but it could also be the beginning of a much sharper slowdown in China's economy. Industrial production in Shanxi province, which leans more on the coal industry, also slumped in recent months. Real estate was the replacement growth source for economies experiencing recessions in their main industries; now that real estate is slowing, the remaining economy is revealed.

Liaoning has sounded a warning bell on China's economy. The real estate slowdown and economic slowdown that had been broad and general, is now turning acute. This process is slow at first and it might take until the middle of 2015 for a national trend to emerge. There's no reason to panic yet, but Liaoning is warning that this slowdown may not be a gradual one.

30% Discount Mortgage? Maybe Next Year

If you are one of the small number of premier or institutional clients, you might be able to get a 10% discounted mortgage in a first tier city right now. Otherwise, forget it. A 30% discount is a pipe dream for now, but financial industry insiders think it could arrive in the first or second quarter of 2015, or maybe the second half of 2015...

银行放贷冲动不强:7折房贷利率料最早明年现身

2014-10-26

China's Rollover

The journey from luxury to thrift will test Beijing’s mettle
This year China is set to pay an interest bill of about $1.7tn, an amount not far short of India’s entire GDP last year ($1.87tn) but larger than the economies of South Korea, Mexico and Indonesia.

...Companies are affected because, according to estimates by Standard Chartered bank, some 32 per cent of new credit these days is used simply to pay off the interest on existing debts. Consumers are compromised because overall debt service charges now equate to about $1,290 out of the annual per capita GDP of $6,800. Local governments – still the main agents of investment – are also feeling the pinch, as was clear from a finance ministry proposal this week to allow them to issue new bonds purely to fund the repayment of their maturing liabilities.

The Wikipedia entry on Hyman Minsky will suffice:
Minsky argued that a key mechanism that pushes an economy towards a crisis is the accumulation of debt by the non-government sector. He identified three types of borrowers that contribute to the accumulation of insolvent debt: hedge borrowers, speculative borrowers, and Ponzi borrowers.

The "hedge borrower" can make debt payments (covering interest and principal) from current cash flows from investments. For the "speculative borrower", the cash flow from investments can service the debt, i.e., cover the interest due, but the borrower must regularly roll over, or re-borrow, the principal. The "Ponzi borrower" (named for Charles Ponzi, see also Ponzi scheme) borrows based on the belief that the appreciation of the value of the asset will be sufficient to refinance the debt but could not make sufficient payments on interest or principal with the cash flow from investments; only the appreciating asset value can keep the Ponzi borrower afloat.

If the use of Ponzi finance is general enough in the financial system, then the inevitable disillusionment of the Ponzi borrower can cause the system to seize up: when the bubble pops, i.e., when the asset prices stop increasing, the speculative borrower can no longer refinance (roll over) the principal even if able to cover interest payments. As with a line of dominoes, collapse of the speculative borrowers can then bring down even hedge borrowers, who are unable to find loans despite the apparent soundness of the underlying investments.

China Pukes Steel

Bloomberg: China Steel Mills Hawk Rebar on Alibaba to Export Surplus
Tangshan Donghua Steel Enterprise Group Co. in China was so eager for new customers overseas that it turned to cold-calling manufacturers and tried hawking metal on the e-commerce website run by Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.

A glut in the world’s biggest steel-making country means that prices for basic products like rebar used in construction have collapsed, so Tangshan Donghua is targeting buyers outside China who pay more. The company now ships as much as 40 percent of its output everywhere from Southeast Asia to South America to the Middle East, and wants to expand exports even further.

“We don’t make any profit selling here,” Wei Guotong, assistant to Tangshan Donghua’s general manager, said in an interview Sept. 22 at the company’s mill about 170 kilometers (106 miles) east of Beijing. “If we sell overseas, we can at least make some money, although not much.”

Xinhua: Steel exports unlikely to strain Sino-Latin American bond: Analyst
Rising steel exports from China into Latin America may slightly increase tensions between the region and the world's second-largest economy, but shouldn't have a major affect on the relationship, according to an analyst.

Alacero, or the Latin American Steel Association said last month that steel imports from China jumped 60 percent year-over-year in the first seven months of 2014. The trade group said Brazil, Chile and Central America were the main destinations for Chinese steel, but imports to Mexico are also rising rapidly. It urged a government response to the Chinese imports.
Nothing a few tariffs or currency devaluation can't solve, or anti-dumping duties.

FT: China steel exports disrupt markets
Chinese exports of steel were a record 8.52m tonnes last month, an increase of 73 per cent from a year earlier, according to customs data.

...But their action could trigger a backlash in the US, which recently approved anti-dumping measures against South Korea and other producers of steel pipes, as well as in Europe, where a steel industry case was filed in mid-May.

...Chinese exports are at record levels and global steel demand on a regional basis is nothing like record levels,” says Mike Shillaker, managing director of Global Steel and European miners at Credit Suisse.

2014-10-25

Real Estate Rescue Efforts Approach 2008 Levels

Although the central bank is still refusing to wreck the currency, local governments are rushing to pile on rescue measures in the face of falling home prices. These efforts are similar to the efforts in 2008, with the big difference being the lack of a major stimulus policy from the top.

More than 20 cities are now giving subsidies to home buyers. In Shandong province, the Weifang municipal government has waived the transaction tax (deed tax) on purchases of homes smaller than 90 sqm. A 50% rebate rebate is available for larger home purchases as well as for office space.

Ningbo is offering college graduates a rebate worth 0.75% to 1% of the total price of the home.

Aside from these two, Tianjin, Shaoxing, Hangzhou, Suining, Meishan, Tongling, Xuancheng, Wuhu, Changsha, Nanjing, Shenyang, Wuhan, Changzhou and Huluda are among the more than 20 cities offering subsidies or tax breaks.

The Achilles' heel of these efforts, besides the lack of monetary stimulus, is the fact that home buyers can wait 1 month and obtain the same discount.

iFeng: 超20城急推购房补贴 救市力度接近2008年

2014-10-24

China New Home Prices Prices Slump 1% in September; Existing Home Price Drop Accelerates

The housing market is now in flux due to the recent stimulative measures. Smaller cities are still reporting the types of price declines seen all year (on October 12 a Greentown sales office in Qingdao was attacked following a 35% price cut; source: 楼盘大降价业主冲击售楼处), while first tier cities such as Beijing have seen significant increases in existing home sales and foot traffic. I still think this is the bull trap at work until there's concrete evidence that prices stabilize, which might come as soon as next week when initial data from October is reported.

Here's what I wrote in September:
I predicted that by October, nearly all cities would see yoy price declines. Thanks to unfavorable comparisons over last years and falling prices, the number of cities with yoy price declines jumped from 3 in July to 19 in August and a majority will probably be down yoy by the end of this month.

...Xiamen remains the outlier; when the October data is out, it will be the only city still showing yoy price gains.

The number of cities with yoy price declines jumped to 58. 10 cities still have yoy increases, and 2 were flat. By the end of this month the only city with a yoy gain will be Xiamen.

As for month-on-month:

March: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.

The one city with flat prices was Xiamen. The largest price drop was 1.9% in both Guilin, Guangxi and Bengbu, Anhui.

On average, prices fell 0.9% in July, 1.1% in August and 1.0% in September.

The average yoy price decline is now 1.1%

Every single city saw existing home prices fall month on month. Existing home prices fell 1.0% in September; this is the largest one month decline this year. The yoy decline hit 1.3%.

70 city new home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 1.0% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 1.0%; above 144 sqm prices fell 1.1%.

70 city existing home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.9% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 1.0%; above 144 sqm prices fell 1.1%.

12014970个大中城市新建住宅价格指数
城市
新建住宅价格指数
城市
新建住宅价格指数
环比
同比
定基
环比
同比
定基
上月=100
去年同月=100
2010
=100
上月=100
去年同月=100
2010
=100
北  京
99.3
100.4
119.4
唐  山
99.4
98.8
101.4
天  津
99.2
99.3
109.8
  
99.0
97.9
112.2
  
98.9
99.6
117.1
包  头
99.3
98.0
108.8
太  原
98.9
99.1
111.9
丹  东
98.3
98.7
114.1
呼和浩特
98.9
100.0
111.9
锦  州
98.7
99.1
112.8
沈  阳
98.8
96.2
114.4
吉  林
98.5
98.3
111.4
大  连
99.0
98.8
114.3
  
99.6
99.5
111.8
长  春
98.7
99.3
111.0
无  锡
99.5
98.2
104.0
  
99.1
100.0
112.1
扬  州
99.3
99.2
107.8
上  海
99.1
99.2
117.2
徐  州
99.3
98.7
110.1
南  京
99.3
100.2
111.1
温  州
99.4
95.2
78.8
杭  州
98.8
92.4
93.3
金  华
99.4
96.6
100.1
宁  波
99.5
97.3
95.9
蚌  埠
98.1
97.4
104.7
合  肥
98.9
101.1
111.2
安  庆
98.7
97.8
105.5
福  州
98.2
98.4
114.7
泉  州
98.6
98.0
104.4
厦  门
100.0
104.8
128.2
九  江
98.8
98.8
106.4
南  昌
98.9
98.0
114.0
赣  州
98.4
97.7
109.5
济  南
99.3
98.7
109.8
烟  台
99.1
99.4
109.2
青  岛
98.6
98.5
106.4
济  宁
99.2
99.9
111.0
郑  州
99.1
100.7
120.5
洛  阳
99.2
99.0
113.1
武  汉
99.2
98.5
112.1
  
99.4
99.1
112.1
长  沙
99.0
98.1
117.1
宜  昌
99.3
98.4
111.6
广  州
98.6
99.4
124.3
襄  阳
99.2
98.1
111.4
深  圳
99.2
100.3
122.6
岳  阳
99.4
99.4
113.0
南  宁
98.7
98.5
108.6
常  德
99.3
99.2
109.9
海  口
99.0
98.8
100.7
惠  州
98.8
99.2
110.4
重  庆
98.2
97.7
109.7
湛  江
98.7
99.4
115.1
成  都
98.9
98.5
110.2
韶  关
99.0
95.3
108.0
贵  阳
99.4
100.5
112.2
桂  林
98.2
98.6
113.5
昆  明
99.1
99.2
111.2
北  海
98.9
99.6
109.1
西  安
99.1
99.8
113.7
三  亚
99.6
99.8
104.1
兰  州
99.5
99.0
113.8
泸  州
98.1
97.3
108.2
西  宁
98.9
101.5
119.6
南  充
98.8
98.2
109.3
银  川
99.5
100.4
112.7
遵  义
99.4
99.8
111.2
乌鲁木齐
99.3
99.8
121.3
大  理
99.5
100.3
105.9
 注:环比以上月价格为100,同比以去年同月价格为100,定基以2010年价格为100

22014970个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数
城市
新建商品住宅价格指数
城市
新建商品住宅价格指数
环比
同比
定基
环比
同比
定基
上月=100
去年同月=100
2010
=100
上月=100
去年同月=100
2010
=100
北  京
99.1
100.4
125.0
唐  山
99.3
98.7
101.5
天  津
99.1
99.2
111.1
  
98.9
97.7
113.5
  
98.9
99.6
117.5
包  头
99.2
97.6
109.7
太  原
98.9
99.0
112.4
丹  东
98.3
98.7
114.2
呼和浩特
98.8
100.0
112.3
锦  州
98.7
99.1
112.8
沈  阳
98.8
96.2
115.0
吉  林
98.4
98.3
111.9
大  连
99.0
98.8
114.5
  
99.6
99.5
111.9
长  春
98.7
99.3
111.3
无  锡
99.4
97.9
104.3
  
99.0
100.0
112.7
扬  州
99.2
99.2
108.1
上  海
98.9
99.1
120.6
徐  州
99.2
98.6
110.7
南  京
99.1
100.2
114.6
温  州
99.4
94.9
77.6
杭  州
98.8
92.1
93.0
金  华
99.3
96.6
100.1
宁  波
99.5
97.2
95.6
蚌  埠
98.1
97.4
104.8
合  肥
98.8
101.2
112.0
安  庆
98.6
97.7
105.5
福  州
98.2
98.4
114.9
泉  州
98.6
97.9
104.7
厦  门
100.0
104.9
128.9
九  江
98.7
98.7
106.7
南  昌
98.8
97.9
114.5
赣  州
98.4
97.7
109.6
济  南
99.3
98.7
109.8
烟  台
99.0
99.4
109.3
青  岛
98.6
98.4
106.7
济  宁
99.1
99.9
111.3
郑  州
99.1
100.7
121.0
洛  阳
99.2
99.0
113.3
武  汉
99.1
98.4
112.7
  
99.4
99.1
112.2
长  沙
98.9
98.0
117.3
宜  昌
99.3
98.3
111.8
广  州
98.6
99.4
124.6
襄  阳
99.2
98.1
111.5
深  圳
99.1
100.3
123.0
岳  阳
99.1
98.8
117.6
南  宁
98.6
98.5
108.9
常  德
99.3
99.2
110.1
海  口
99.0
98.7
100.7
惠  州
98.8
99.2
110.4
重  庆
98.2
97.6
109.9
湛  江
98.7
99.4
115.1
成  都
98.9
98.5
110.3
韶  关
98.9
95.1
108.2
贵  阳
99.4
100.5
113.1
桂  林
98.1
98.6
113.8
昆  明
98.9
99.0
112.7
北  海
98.9
99.6
109.2
西  安
99.0
99.8
115.1
三  亚
99.6
99.8
104.1
兰  州
99.5
99.0
114.0
泸  州
98.1
97.2
108.5
西  宁
98.9
101.5
119.7
南  充
98.8
98.2
109.4
银  川
99.5
100.4
113.6
遵  义
99.3
99.8
112.5
乌鲁木齐
99.3
99.8
121.4
大  理
99.4
100.3
106.3

32014970个大中城市二手住宅价格指数
城市
二手住宅价格指数
城市
二手住宅价格指数
环比
同比
定基
环比
同比
定基
上月=100
去年同月=100
2010
=100
上月=100
去年同月=100
2010
=100
北  京
98.6
97.6
114.0
唐  山
99.3
99.1
103.1
天  津
98.9
100.0
105.5
  
99.2
95.3
98.8
  
99.0
100.4
99.9
包  头
98.9
97.7
99.7
太  原
98.9
99.0
113.3
丹  东
99.0
98.1
102.9
呼和浩特
99.2
98.2
104.8
锦  州
99.3
97.6
99.3
沈  阳
99.2
99.2
107.3
吉  林
99.5
97.4
102.2
大  连
99.1
97.3
104.6
  
98.0
92.3
95.3
长  春
98.8
98.6
103.2
无  锡
99.4
98.1
104.6
  
99.1
100.6
102.7
扬  州
99.4
99.6
100.8
上  海
99.2
99.9
114.0
徐  州
99.3
97.9
97.8
南  京
99.0
100.1
103.9
温  州
99.5
89.6
76.4
杭  州
99.3
95.4
92.9
金  华
98.7
96.2
93.8
宁  波
99.0
97.5
92.5
蚌  埠
98.9
100.1
106.2
合  肥
99.2
102.3
106.3
安  庆
99.2
97.0
98.1
福  州
99.1
99.1
101.2
泉  州
99.1
98.1
96.8
厦  门
99.5
104.3
112.9
九  江
99.3
98.8
101.7
南  昌
98.8
98.9
103.8
赣  州
98.9
95.8
96.1
济  南
99.1
98.2
103.3
烟  台
99.0
98.5
101.2
青  岛
99.0
97.4
100.3
济  宁
99.3
97.6
105.6
郑  州
99.1
103.5
112.2
洛  阳
99.1
101.2
111.1
武  汉
99.0
98.9
107.9
  
99.1
99.7
109.1
长  沙
98.9
100.3
106.3
宜  昌
99.3
99.4
106.2
广  州
98.7
101.0
116.9
襄  阳
98.8
98.5
111.8
深  圳
99.3
103.1
121.2
岳  阳
99.0
99.0
112.5
南  宁
98.0
97.0
102.2
常  德
99.2
99.0
112.2
海  口
99.0
97.4
92.3
惠  州
99.0
100.2
108.6
重  庆
98.8
98.7
102.0
湛  江
99.1
99.2
109.0
成  都
98.9
98.3
101.0
韶  关
98.3
96.1
105.4
贵  阳
99.2
101.1
118.0
桂  林
99.0
97.7
103.4
昆  明
98.9
98.6
112.1
北  海
98.9
98.0
104.5
西  安
99.0
97.4
102.4
三  亚
99.4
99.6
94.8
兰  州
98.9
98.9
98.9
泸  州
99.1
100.3
103.3
西  宁
99.0
99.8
111.3
南  充
98.8
99.0
103.5
银  川
98.7
100.9
109.8
遵  义
99.2
100.9
110.9
乌鲁木齐
99.0
101.4
112.7
大  理
99.3
97.7
102.1

42014970个大中城市新建商品住宅分类价格指数
城市
90m2及以下
90-144m2
144m2以上
环比
同比
定基
环比
同比
定基
环比
同比
定基
上月
=100
去年同月
=100
2010
=100
上月
=100
去年同月
=100
2010
=100
上月
=100
去年同月
=100
2010
=100
北  京
98.9
99.4
125.3
99.1
99.9
124.3
99.2
101.7
125.4
天  津
99.2
98.9
113.4
99.2
99.2
110.3
98.8
99.5
110.2
  
98.6
99.7
118.0
99.0
99.4
118.0
98.8
99.7
115.8
太  原
98.9
99.4
113.9
99.0
99.4
114.3
98.8
98.4
109.5
呼和浩特
98.8
100.6
114.3
99.0
100.2
111.0
98.7
99.4
112.8
沈  阳
98.7
96.1
117.6
98.9
96.4
114.0
98.8
95.7
111.0
大  连
98.7
98.5
114.7
99.3
99.6
115.2
99.1
97.9
112.8
长  春
99.1
99.6
116.9
98.5
99.9
111.1
98.5
98.1
105.3
  
98.9
100.4
113.8
99.1
99.8
112.4
99.0
99.7
111.4
上  海
99.1
100.1
125.5
98.9
98.7
119.8
98.9
98.8
118.8
南  京
99.0
99.6
114.1
99.0
100.2
114.8
99.2
100.8
114.7
杭  州
99.1
90.4
92.7
99.0
92.8
92.9
98.3
93.3
93.2
宁  波
99.4
94.8
94.2
99.5
97.1
94.8
99.5
98.0
96.7
合  肥
98.9
101.5
115.0
98.9
101.4
111.5
98.2
99.1
107.1
福  州
98.2
98.3
114.7
98.0
98.3
117.0
98.3
98.4
112.9
厦  门
99.8
105.1
132.9
100.0
105.6
130.6
100.0
104.0
124.6
南  昌
99.3
98.5
114.0
98.9
97.8
116.0
98.4
97.7
112.0
济  南
99.1
99.3
113.7
99.3
98.5
109.5
99.2
98.8
108.6
青  岛
98.9
98.2
106.5
98.7
98.9
108.7
97.9
97.7
103.3
郑  州
99.3
101.0
123.2
99.2
100.3
119.6
98.6
100.6
119.7
武  汉
99.2
98.5
114.1
99.2
98.1
112.7
99.0
99.2
110.8
长  沙
98.8
98.1
120.4
98.7
97.7
117.4
99.3
98.3
114.5
广  州
98.5
99.1
124.7
98.4
99.3
127.1
98.9
99.6
121.7
深  圳
99.1
100.6
125.9
99.0
99.6
120.2
99.2
100.2
121.4
南  宁
98.8
98.7
109.5
98.5
98.4
108.9
98.7
98.2
107.5
海  口
99.6
99.6
104.4
99.2
99.7
101.5
98.5
96.8
98.2
重  庆
98.4
97.9
113.0
98.2
96.8
108.1
98.0
98.5
108.3
成  都
99.1
98.1
110.1
98.5
99.1
112.3
99.2
98.2
107.3
贵  阳
99.3
101.0
115.0
99.3
100.5
113.2
99.8
100.2
111.5
昆  明
98.9
99.5
116.0
98.8
98.9
112.4
99.1
98.6
108.9
西  安
99.0
99.9
118.1
99.3
99.6
113.6
98.7
100.0
113.2
兰  州
99.6
99.6
114.5
99.6
99.2
113.7
99.3
97.6
114.5
西  宁
99.0
102.0
119.8
99.1
101.4
120.1
98.4
101.6
118.0
银  川
99.4
100.9
116.9
99.7
100.2
111.5
99.3
100.1
113.3
乌鲁木齐
99.5
100.5
122.9
99.3
99.9
123.3
98.8
98.4
114.8
唐  山
99.6
99.8
103.4
99.2
98.3
101.5
99.1
98.1
99.3
  
98.9
98.1
115.5
99.0
97.6
112.5
98.8
96.7
111.3
包  头
99.0
97.9
110.6
99.2
98.0
110.4
99.3
95.9
105.1
丹  东
98.2
100.0
116.7
98.5
98.0
113.5
98.1
97.7
109.7
锦  州
98.4
99.0
113.1
99.1
99.3
113.9
98.5
98.4
108.1
吉  林
99.0
98.8
112.7
98.0
97.5
111.0
98.8
99.6
113.2
  
99.6
99.5
111.7
99.6
100.0
112.5
99.3
98.2
111.5
无  锡
99.3
97.5
106.0
99.6
99.1
105.3
99.1
96.5
102.1
扬  州
99.1
98.4
109.6
99.2
99.3
108.1
99.3
99.2
107.5
徐  州
99.3
97.5
108.9
99.2
98.8
111.5
99.1
99.4
108.9
温  州
99.3
94.4
79.7
99.1
94.3
80.8
99.5
95.1
76.5
金  华
99.1
97.6
107.4
99.5
97.3
102.9
99.3
95.8
95.9
蚌  埠
98.2
99.1
109.0
98.0
96.7
103.3
98.1
97.4
105.3
安  庆
98.9
98.0
107.8
98.3
97.5
105.2
99.1
98.0
105.8
泉  州
98.6
98.6
105.7
98.6
98.2
106.3
98.4
96.7
101.2
九  江
99.1
98.2
106.9
98.5
99.1
107.6
98.8
98.8
102.6
赣  州
98.5
99.2
110.0
98.3
97.4
109.7
98.4
97.5
109.1
烟  台
99.2
99.7
109.6
98.9
99.4
110.5
99.4
98.7
105.1
济  宁
99.6
101.3
113.5
99.0
99.8
112.3
98.9
98.9
107.0
洛  阳
99.6
101.8
120.0
98.7
97.3
110.2
99.3
98.8
112.2
  
99.5
100.0
114.5
99.3
99.1
114.5
99.3
97.9
105.7
宜  昌
98.9
98.6
111.8
99.4
98.3
112.3
99.1
98.0
109.4
襄  阳
99.3
98.2
113.7
99.3
98.6
112.5
98.8
96.3
106.5
岳  阳
99.2
99.0
118.4
99.3
99.6
119.9
98.8
98.2
115.5
常  德
99.7
100.9
115.0
99.3
98.9
109.2
99.4
99.2
110.4
惠  州
98.9
101.3
119.1
99.1
98.4
111.1
98.6
98.9
106.1
湛  江
98.6
99.4
115.0
98.7
99.0
116.7
98.7
99.9
112.2
韶  关
99.0
96.0
110.5
98.9
94.6
107.0
99.4
94.4
103.0
桂  林
98.4
99.2
113.2
98.1
98.7
115.7
98.2
97.7
106.7
北  海
99.2
100.0
109.5
98.2
98.7
109.9
98.6
98.6
103.9
三  亚
99.8
102.0
106.8
99.9
97.6
102.5
99.1
98.4
101.1
泸  州
98.0
97.9
108.0
98.1
97.0
108.8
98.0
97.2
107.3
南  充
98.3
97.6
107.8
99.2
98.6
110.1
98.4
97.9
109.0
遵  义
99.3
100.1
113.3
99.4
99.5
112.5
99.1
100.3
111.6
大  理
99.1
99.2
105.1
99.5
100.9
106.1
99.6
100.9
108.1

52014970个大中城市二手住宅分类价格指数
城市
90m2及以下
90-144m2
144m2以上
环比
同比
定基
环比
同比
定基
环比
同比
定基
上月
=100
去年同月
=100
2010
=100
上月
=100
去年同月
=100
2010
=100
上月
=100
去年同月
=100
2010
=100
北  京
98.7
97.3
115.7
98.4
97.7
113.2
98.5
98.1
110.9
天  津
99.1
100.5
108.6
98.7
99.7
106.3
98.8
98.2
97.1
  
99.0
100.4
99.9
99.0
100.4
101.2
98.9
99.8
94.9
太  原
99.0
99.6
115.3
98.6
98.9
112.1
99.1
97.3
110.4
呼和浩特
99.5
98.8
105.6
98.7
97.9
105.0
99.2
97.0
101.8
沈  阳
99.3
99.2
108.0
98.9
98.9
107.0
99.2
99.7
102.9
大  连
99.2
97.4
104.9
99.0
96.6
103.4
98.7
99.1
107.2
长  春
99.0
98.9
105.6
98.7
98.1
100.8
98.4
98.3
99.8
  
99.2
100.9
103.1
99.0
101.0
103.6
99.1
99.5
100.6
上  海
99.1
100.3
116.6
99.4
100.1
114.1
99.2
98.6
107.5
南  京
99.2
101.6
104.0
98.8
99.6
102.2
98.9
98.9
106.6
杭  州
99.4
96.1
95.3
99.3
96.1
93.2
98.9
91.1
83.2
宁  波
99.0
97.2
93.2
98.9
98.2
92.2
99.1
97.3
90.9
合  肥
99.2
103.8
109.5
99.2
101.5
105.6
98.9
102.9
103.8
福  州
99.1
99.9
102.4
99.1
99.2
103.3
99.0
98.3
99.8
厦  门
99.5
104.2
115.7
99.6
105.1
114.4
99.6
103.2
107.3
南  昌
98.8
99.7
107.9
98.8
97.7
99.4
99.0
99.8
102.6
济  南
99.2
98.2
101.3
98.9
98.0
104.6
98.9
98.8
107.2
青  岛
99.2
98.7
101.8
98.9
96.6
99.4
98.7
96.6
99.4
郑  州
99.3
104.7
114.4
99.1
103.8
111.8
98.5
101.2
109.7
武  汉
99.3
98.8
107.9
98.7
99.2
108.7
99.0
98.4
105.2
长  沙
99.1
99.3
105.7
98.5
100.3
106.8
99.3
102.0
106.3
广  州
99.0
101.6
120.9
98.5
99.6
114.4
98.5
101.4
111.9
深  圳
99.4
104.5
124.6
99.3
101.6
122.9
99.0
102.1
109.3
南  宁
98.1
97.3
103.1
98.1
96.9
103.5
97.5
96.5
97.7
海  口
99.0
97.6
92.9
99.2
97.9
92.9
98.8
96.2
90.8
重  庆
98.8
99.5
100.1
98.7
98.2
103.1
99.1
97.5
104.7
成  都
99.0
98.6
101.9
99.1
97.8
99.7
98.3
98.1
101.2
贵  阳
99.2
101.2
119.2
99.3
101.1
115.1
98.9
100.3
117.9
昆  明
98.7
98.4
113.3
99.3
99.6
112.2
98.5
97.2
110.3
西  安
99.2
97.1
104.1
99.0
97.6
100.8
98.8
97.3
103.7
兰  州
98.8
98.1
97.8
98.9
99.3
99.0
98.8
98.3
100.2
西  宁
99.1
100.2
112.8
98.9
99.5
109.9
98.8
99.0
107.6
银  川
98.7
101.0
109.5
98.8
100.8
110.1
98.6
100.8
109.8
乌鲁木齐
99.0
101.6
115.8
99.0
101.6
111.2
98.5
98.6
106.4
唐  山
99.3
99.2
103.6
99.2
98.8
101.4
99.0
98.7
99.5
  
99.2
95.1
100.0
99.3
95.4
96.6
99.1
96.0
98.6
包  头
99.1
98.4
99.8
98.8
97.1
100.9
98.4
96.9
94.6
丹  东
98.7
97.7
104.8
99.3
98.4
101.7
99.5
98.3
98.7
锦  州
99.3
97.5
98.1
99.5
98.1
100.5
99.3
96.5
104.9
吉  林
99.5
97.8
104.0
99.5
97.0
102.5
99.3
97.2
97.0
  
98.0
91.3
95.6
98.1
95.1
95.6
97.8
93.5
91.7
无  锡
99.4
98.6
104.2
99.4
98.0
104.6
99.2
97.1
105.3
扬  州
99.4
100.1
101.6
99.4
99.3
100.2
99.0
97.8
99.3
徐  州
99.4
98.6
98.4
99.3
97.6
97.3
98.8
97.2
99.0
温  州
99.2
90.2
79.0
99.5
90.8
76.5
99.8
87.6
73.8
金  华
98.7
96.8
95.7
98.7
97.1
94.8
98.7
93.0
88.4
蚌  埠
98.9
100.8
106.9
98.8
99.1
105.3
98.9
98.4
104.6
安  庆
99.2
97.0
98.1
99.2
96.8
98.2
98.9
97.1
98.6
泉  州
99.1
97.5
95.6
99.1
98.7
97.9
99.0
97.6
96.9
九  江
99.4
99.2
102.6
99.3
99.1
100.3
99.2
94.8
100.8
赣  州
98.6
94.5
95.4
99.2
96.9
97.3
98.7
94.7
94.4
烟  台
99.1
97.8
102.8
99.1
99.2
103.4
98.9
98.7
96.8
济  宁
99.2
96.9
108.3
99.2
98.3
104.9
99.5
97.2