2022-12-26

Lockdown to "Pandemic:" Covid, Flu and Cold Cases Go Wild in China and the USA

WSJ: China to Open Borders Despite Surge in Covid Cases
A sign outside the Peking Union emergency room warned patients it could take more than four hours to see a doctor. A nurse at Peking Union’s fever clinic said that for weeks patients had been forced to wait in the hallways for beds to open up. One elderly patient, unable to secure a bed, was lying on a metal bench just inside the entrance of the fever clinic.

A nurse at Peking University First Hospital’s emergency room said beds there were all full and the wait time at the internal medicine department was roughly six hours. The hospital public address system announced that nearly 50 patients were waiting to be seen.

A Beijing taxi driver said Monday that most of his recent passengers were traveling to hospitals.

I don't know if China is suffering a pure covid wave or an everything wave, but the USA is suffering a cold and flu wave. Many stores are out of cold and flu medicine, in particular children's. During lockdowns, flu and cold viruses continued spreading and mutating, but in smaller numbers. This prevented normal herd immunity. China didn't have nearly as much mRNA vaccine, so the lack of immune system challenges is clearly a factor.

Chinese were paranoid about covid a month ago. I think experience is the best teacher and they will be over this fear quickly. If the lockdowns damaged immune systems and herd immunity though, then perhaps China will suffer several waves of illness stretching into the next cold and flu season at the end of 2023.

The scientists promoting lockdowns were fools, the governments were fools and the doctors were fools for going all with it all. Whatever you may or may not be suffering, this is the direct result of lockdowns. The total bill for these totalitarian, anti-common sense, anti-science policies still hasn't been finalized.

2022-12-18

Going to Extremes

I talked about EXTR again today and went into some ways I dig up potential trades and investments.

FAN Gets Winded at Resistance Again

How many touches is enough?
On the other hand, could have 30 percent of downside before hitting major support.

2022-12-16

Auto Lending Trouble

A Twitter thread. tl;dr Car prices have plunged so much that consumer would owe on loans when trading in a car. The lenders will give them new loans anyway and ignore that part, assuming they'll default on the older loan. Yay auto sales!

Final Support For Dominion

Utilities are only starting a reversal, but Dominion is already at final support.

Dominoes Lined Up and Falling

ES traded down to a support level this morning. THe Dow Jones Industrial Average lost the 1929-2000 trendline. Palladium is threatening a top completion and breakdown.
Binance is in trouble and it is the market:
Platinum:

2022-12-15

ARKK $20

Going to $20 if support falls.

Apple on the Line

Probably will take a new 52-week low ($128.65) to get downside acceleration.

Palladium

Could give a new signal to short tech and growth if it loses support.

3900 Is Open

Below 3930, room to drop. Above and 3950 and 3980 are resistance areas.
I posted a bunch of trades over on the Substack.. It is a shooting gallery out there because a reversal will hit everything. I don't have positions on these ETFs, but funds such as XLV and XLI (healthare and industrials) are ripe for reversals. Energy should get crunched, tech, etc. If it looks like a good short, it probably will be.

Energy ETF Ratio

If California Didn't Exist, Austrians Would Have to Invent It

Clownifornia delivers another lesson in central planning and interventionism gone wrong. Retail sales spiked in October when California issued a stimulus check. Retail sales fell in November.
If America chose a pet rock for president, it would be a successful term because the pet rock would not intervene. Unfortunately, there are bad policies that do constant intervention that must be unwound, but a pet rock would come up with no stupid ideas, which it seems is the only thing the Baizuo ruling class can come up with.

2022-12-14

China Finally Reopens

The economy might not rebound as much as expected, but some industries such as restaurants and travel should see a big positive change.

2022-12-13

The Inflation Trade is Over

This morning's spike in the CPI was the last torching of the inflation bears. Inflation peaked in June 2022 and a lot of bears didn't get the memo. They continued pushing a bearish outlook based on fading inflation, with a resulting series of squeezes. It appears that like the dodo, these animals are now extinct.

All is not well in the markets though, at least this morning isn't yet a clear victory for the bulls. The DJIA reversed all of its CPI gains by 11 AM and Tesla broke to a new 52-week low.

Zooming out, this is supposedly a bear market, but even the technology sector failed to crack its 50-month moving average.
Does this mean it isn't a bear market? Not necessarily. The 2000 bear market was a similarly slow starting affair that was frontloaded with massive losses in speculutive growth stocks. This cycle has crypto, that one had Beanie Babies. It could be a giant correction though, a huge rotation from growth to value, with energy becoming the still-extant bull market's leader. I still lean bearish because the charts strike me as bearish, particularly where many Dow components are situated, yet there is some fog at the current price levels. If the bear resumes, it won't be because of inflation fears. It will be driven by a new fear, most likely recession.

2022-12-11

Kimberly Clark

Exceling at Topping

I saw this as a possible outperformer this summer. Now it looks like a great short candidate in the making.

Sealed Top

I didn't touch the lines on this chart. SEE came up on my "losers" screen. Lo and behold, it failed at a horizontal I had on there. Other losers this week (high relative volume, negative on the week) include ODFL, NFLX, ZTS, LULU, RH, PCAR, ET, FIS, WBA.

2022-12-08

Tesla Crash Conspiracy Theory

I don't need any fundamental reason for a trade, but some people need to hear one. For Tesla, I have a Tesla Crash Conspiracy Theory.

Unemployment and Stocks

Very simple formula for 2023 in my opinion. If unemployment rises, stocks are going to new lows.

The first chart below shows claims and stocks positively correlated because myopic, QE-addicted bulls think higher unemployment is good for them, because the Fed will ease off hikes.

If unemployment starts rising sharply, then we'll know what form the Black Rabbit will take.

2022-12-07

Denmark's Identity Program in Focus

Quality immigration becoming a little more of a rare commodity every day, the key to success for Western countries will probably be like Denmark: being able to raise the birth rate, to accomplish the transition to modernity in a sustainable, to resolve the errors of past immigration policies, to propose a viable social model for active couples, to be able to preserve the identity and integrity of the population of origin.
Overview of Denmark's identity model

2022-12-05

Dollar Echo

Santiago Capital posted a chart of the dollar showing now looked similar to the early 1980s. I tried layering it and didn't see it match too closely, but then I laid down Fibonacci lines and saw this:

Hello Economy, Anybody Home?

If diesel is really in a shortage situation, that makes this chart all the worse.

Weekly Puts on XLE Again

I put the weekly put trade on again.

2022-12-01

Coppock Curve and Dovish Feds

The Felder Report discussed the Coppock Curve. I can see both a bullish and bearish interpretation. It confirms the 50-month moving average hold being a correction with the Coppock down a little more than in most corrections and similar to the 1987 crash move. It bottomed well after stocks began their rally.

The other chart shows how the bulls interpreted the Fed's pivot in August 2007. A very bullish reaction in September 2007 when another rate cut followed and then the top shortly thereafter.

30-Year Bond Symmetry

Let's see if the dip comes or not. I closed out some TLT calls earlier in the week because it hit a horiztonal. TLT has more a dip that argues for a bullish turn immediately, whereas ZB would still need a dip to fully reflect the down move. It doesn't have to be a symmetric move though. The expected move is higher and any dip should be limited.

2022-11-30

Dominicans Cracking Down on Haitians Again

Guardian: US warns its ‘darker-skinned’ citizens of Dominican Republic’s migrant crackdown
US officials in the Dominican Republic are warning “darker-skinned” Americans they are at risk of being swept up in the country’s crackdown on Haitian migrants.

The advice from the US embassy in Santo Domingo suggests that authorities there are using a person’s appearance as a criteria for detention of those suspected of being in the country illegally.

The Dominican Republic says it has deported 43,900 migrants, mostly Haitians, between July and October in an operation it insists is necessary for national security amid growing unrest, gang crime and a fuel blockade inside its only neighbour on the island of Hispaniola.

This will eventually come to Europe. Probably not the United States because it isn't an ethnostate. The odds are near zero in the U.S., but they rise with the degree of collapse that unfolds. It is possible that all illegal immigrants are eventually deported if there's no amnesty.

Jiang Zemin Dead at 96

The Western press has more detailed obituaries for Jiang, who led China during the most important phase of its rise in the 1990s. Making the leap from a rising power to a potential global hegemon during a period when the United States was at the apex of its power, Jiang integrated China into the American system while simultaneously laying the foundation to displace it as the premier economic power. He came to power with China an outcast following the Tiananmen crackdown and left with China in the WTO, rapidly gutting what was left of the West's industrial advantage.

AP has a long biography: Former President Jiang Zemin, who guided China’s rise, dies

Chinese coverage is remarkably terse.

China Daily: Jiang Zemin passes away

The letter says that Comrade Jiang Zemin was an outstanding leader enjoying high prestige acknowledged by the whole Party, the entire military and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups, a great Marxist, a great proletarian revolutionary, statesman, military strategist and diplomat, a long-tested communist fighter, and an outstanding leader of the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics. He was the core of the CPC's third generation of central collective leadership and the principal founder of the Theory of Three Represents.

My take: this is probably a non-event for China because Jiang wasn't heavily involved in current politics. He also isn't a beloved figure among the people. The June 1989 protests were sparked by the death of Hu Yaobang in April because he was a popular figure for people who wanted China to open up politically. Given the current state of affairs, disgruntled citizens or CCP insiders could his death as a vehicle for criticizing the state.

I still don't think these protests have legs. I'm not basing that on superior on the ground knowledge, but the fact that I've seen this show play out before and it always ends the same way. Jiang's death adds a new variable that could fuel something larger, but that something hasn't happened yet.

2022-11-28

Apple Ratios

A trip to the lower support on AAPL/QQQ corrolates to a $130 price at the current level of QQQ> A conservative target is a touch of that support. Adjust for move in QQQ.

Island Reversal on Utilities

Below on the utilities that look the most intriguing as short candidates. NEE has the most liquid options.