Middle Class Luxury Consumer

These stocks sell middle class "luxury" goods: backyard pools, ride on lawnmowers, boats, snowmobiles and a REIT with exposure to RV parks and marinas.

Playing With SlopeTools: Expensive Consumer Goods

I've posted this chart before, five "expensive" consumer goods companies. RVs, four-wheelers, expensive lawn care machines, swimming pools. The thesis: inflation will curtail these middle-class luxuries. These are all items that will see their purchases delayed when household finances become tight. These would all be good long targets if and when wage growth finally exceeds inflation...

Sun Communities (SUI): Sun Communities, Inc. is a REIT that, as of September 30, 2020, owned, operated, or had an interest in a portfolio of 432 communities comprising nearly 146,000 developed sites in 32 states and Ontario, Canada.

Pool (POOL): Pool Corporation distributes swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products in the United States and internationally.

Toro (TTC) :The Toro Company engages in the designing, manufacturing, marketing, and selling professional and residential equipment worldwide. The company's Professional segment offers turf and landscape equipment products, including sports fields and grounds mowing and maintenance equipment, golf course mowing and maintenance equipment, landscape contractor mowing equipment, landscape creation and renovation equipment, and other maintenance equipment; rental, specialty, and underground construction equipment; and snow and ice management equipment, such as snowplows, brush, snow thrower attachment, salt and sand spreaders, and related parts and accessories for light and medium duty trucks, utility task vehicles, skid steers, and front-end loaders.

Polaris (PII): Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets power sports vehicles worldwide. It operates through six segments: ORV, Snowmobiles, Motorcycles, Global Adjacent Markets, Aftermarket, and Boats.

Thor (THO): Thor Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells recreational vehicles (RVs), and related parts and accessories in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

I used two tools at SlopeCharts for the chart below. One was auto-trendline from the top and bottom. The other was a regression line for the entire period.

Here are the individual charts. What I see is either major topping patterns or very long-term trend that has stayed in the upper half. PII may be the best example. There are two breaks through the middle trendline and the result was a plunge to long-term support. A repeat would send the stock down more than 50 percent from here. The only one of these I have puts on right now is POOL.

SITE is another stock that expanded similar to POOL. Has a great setup too. I left this, and others out of the index, because I think 5 is a good enough sampling. Speculators should be going through all the companies in these sectors, no doubt there are many more bearish setups.

Bye Consumers

Good Life Index

Energy intensive consumer luxuries. Pools, ride on lawnmowers, jet skis, RVs and an RV park REIT.

Good-Bye Good Life

Americans benefited from a strong dollar, low commodity inflation and rising asset prices over the past decade. Part of the "good life" in the USA is ownership of expensive equipment or luxury items such as ride-on lawnmowers, speed boats, RVs, jet skis, backyard pools and 4-wheel vehicles. As inflation cuts into consumer budgets, I expect sales will collapse.