Based Copper

Copper and BTC

Support Breaks Galore

Gold hasn't broken yet. Commodities are relatively strong today, I'm down on XLE, FCX and DOW puts. I bought 1 DTE GDX puts in case gold does break though.

Visa and Mastercard look like ServiceNow because they're all in the tech sector. I'm not sure if V and MA will pull tech down, or vice versa, but it's kind of a weird sector with two stocks tied to the consumer and interest rates in with tech companies.

If History Repeats

FCX will be single-digits by the end of the year. Maybe as soon as October or November.

Salmon Jumping: Materials

Materials is a target rich environment if you buy into the deflation thesis or want to hedge it. Energy is the top pick, but some of these stocks are boring sleepers that aren't heavily traded. That makes for illiquid options, but also sometimes underpriced options. Some of the options in the materials sector are dirt cheap if you assume deflation. I skipped any chart that didn't look toppy, but the top-10 are almost all ugly. Newmont is included, even though I have calls, because it could be cut in half in a deflationary panic. Note that I expect Newmont would outperform most commodities stocks in this scenario. Purple line on IFF is a regression line for the whole chart. Individual targets after the jump.

Another Low Volume Day Shaping Up

These charts show weekly bars and volume. I am scaling into puts for September and October. AAPL the only one of these I bought puts on today.

Updated: Are You Ready for Deflation?

Does that 2008 top look like the current top? The biggest difference I see is the current top took longer to form.

Sometimes I have to stretch the charts a bit to line them up, but I nailed this one with the first pass on each.

Update: I measured the move in 2008 and 2022. Very similar. FCX went on to lose 80 percent in 2008. It might not be a bad idea to put in a standing buy order for $5 per share.

I'm looking for an options trade that combines cheap puts with high potential payoff if this move continues repeating.

Rope-a-Dope Round 5

Whether this is the final round or not will be determined by the low. Will it be a higher low or will it be another spectacular collapse?

Copper has 12 percent downside until it hits the red horizontal, which would be a very bullish place for it to stop. I suspect it won't, but even if I'm totally wrong and copper is going way higher later this yer, I expect it will get at least that low in this downswing.

New All-Time High FCX

Potential breakout on a massive base. As I said in the prior post, the fact that these moves are coming off massive bases makes it look much less like a major top and more like a major breakout, or the hint of where things will go if the Fed tries QE6 in a downturn.

The anomaly is the U.S. dollar not behaving like one would have expected given the chart.

Fourth Sunday After Epiphany Part 2

The last screen was interesting, but I tightened up the market cap criteria and loosened the return criteria to find some larger companies. Here's what popped up in addition to CARR, DT and HOOD from the prior screen.

First Sunday of Advent Charts Part One

I'm going through my watchlists. These are in no particular order, though each post will be in alphabetical order. These could be buy or sells based on your orientation. One thing I noticed was on charts such as EXAS that are ARKK components, a few of them bounced up above resistance but closed below. a monday morning bounce back to that resistance area followed by a failure would be a nice spot for new bearish positions. The first chart is SPY. That rising wedge looks desinted for a collapse and the cyan lines highlight a gap from way back in April.

Watching Bellwhethers

No positions on this one, but watching. FedEx is coming up on its earnings gap. If the economy is slowing or slipping into recession, fedex should fail here.

Freeport-McMoRan, still short a bit. Right on the line.

Energy, XLE. Doubts creeping in on this one, but I still don't like the looks of the volume. I do not possess a crystal ball, but one down day on higher volume is going to flip the technicals.

If I'm totally wrong, I'm still not too concerned because I don't foresee the 30-year bond holding up. That's not to say the market can't go insane. Bonds, stocks and commodities could all rise together for awhile, and they'd have to, because the 30-year bond futures are around 0.20 percent away from taking out the October 11 low. It is down 0.40 percent overnight right now, so maybe I wake up to a selloff in bonds and the Nasdaq. MOre ominously for the Fed and the bond bull market, there's a topping pattern than has about 2.5 percent to go. That will fall quickly if oil is starting a run straight to $100 per barrel. If that completes, then a test of the bond bull market's 40-year uptrend coming into play.

The Copper Side of Copper-Gold

If copper-gold breaks down, the most likely cause is falling copper.

Short Inflation Hysteria

Tesla Lost 42pc Versus Freeport McMoRan in One Month

If inflation is coming, technology is already rapidly losing ground.